By William L. Watts and Victor Reklaitis, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks gave up moderate early
gains Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipping back
into negative territory as investors await major economic data this
week and weigh whether to continue pressing the upside in the face
of uncertainty over when the Federal Reserve may begin to choke the
flow of monetary stimulus.
Stocks had initially gained ground after a report on factory
orders that roughly matched expectations, with bulls also finding
solace in remarks by St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James
Bullard.
The S&P 500 (SPX) was last up 1 point, or 0.1%, to 1,763,
while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) dropped 11 points, or
0.1%, to 15,605.
The Nasdaq Composite(RIXF) held on to a gain of 4 points, or
0.1%, to 3,925.
"The market's Kryptonite is early taper talk at the moment, and
this first full week of November has the potential for it to be
hurled at it from all directions with no shortage of U.S. economic
data on the agenda, including the all-important October payrolls
report and the advance estimate of [third-quarter] GDP," said Jim
Reid, strategist at Deutsche Bank, in a note. Reid said there had
been some signs of risk being taken off the table already, noting
pullbacks in emerging-markets equities, fixed income and
currencies.
Bullard told CNBC that the Federal Reserve did not have to be in
a "hurry" to pare its $85 billion-a-month in bond purchases,
because inflation is low. On the other hand, Bullard also made
several comments that suggest a taper could come soon.
U.S. factory orders for September rose 1.7%. That met the
consensus forecast from a MarketWatch poll of economists. Other
surveys called for a 1.8% gain.
In other Fed news, Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher suggested
in Sydney on Monday that tapering of bond buys could come sooner
than expected, and that fiscal risks shouldn't stop the Fed from
doing what is right for the economy. At 11:40 a.m. Eastern, Fed
Governor Jerome Powell will speak on Fed policy and emerging
markets at a conference in San Francisco.
At 2 p.m. Eastern, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, a voting
member of the Fed's policy-making committee, will talk about the
economy at the University of Massachusetts in Boston.
A strong October for stocks, with the S&P 500 gaining 4.5%
and hitting record highs, has left some strategists cautious. "The
outsized gains the stock market enjoyed in October [...] suggest a
pause is likely before the year-end rally continues," said Bruce
Bittles, chief investment strategist at Robert W. Baird & Co.,
in a note on Monday. Bittles and other strategists say the
principal driver for stocks continues to be Fed policy. (Read more:
The next pain trade involves March taper assumptions
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/11/04/the-next-pain-trade-involves-march-taper-assumptions-b-of-a/.).
Others note that, historically, strong year-to-date gains
through October have tended to point to further gains for equities
in November and December
Among blue chips, shares of Du Pont (DD) were the biggest loser,
off 1.9%. DuPont had gained ground last week after it said it would
spin off its performance chemicals unit to existing
shareholders.
Fellow Dow component Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) fell 0.8% after
the company said it would pay around $2 billion to settle a Justice
Department probe into the marketing of antipsychotic drug Riperdal.
The company will plead guilty to a misdemeanor, officials said.
Shares of BlackBerry Ltd. (RIMM) fell more than 13% on news the
ailing smartphone maker has abandoned a plan to sell itself.
BlackBerry said it would replace Chief Executive Thorsten Heins and
receive a $1 billion investment from institutional investors.
Kellogg Co. (K) rose more than 2% after the cereal maker
reported earnings and said it would cut its workforce by 7% by the
end of 2017.
Steelmakers were also on the rise after analysts at Goldman
Sachs upgraded their view on the sector to neutral from cautious
and upgraded the shares of individual steelmakers. Goldman lifted
AK Steel Holding Corp. (AKS) and United States Steel Corp. (X) to
buy from sell and raised Steel Dynamics Inc. (STLD) to buy from
neutral. AK Steel shares rose 11.5%, while United States Steel
advanced 4.4% and Steel Dynamics advanced 2.6%.
Also, Goldman downgraded Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. (RS)
to neutral from buy. Shares rose 0.2%.
In Asia, stocks finished mostly lower, surrendering gains made
after upbeat services data from China. European stocks traded
higher, while gold edged up and oil prices inched higher.
The dollar was last down slightly.
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