By Josie Cox
The remorseless slide in the price of oil is hammering an
increasingly broad spectrum of the global financial market,
particularly pummeling stocks and currencies of oil-dependent
economies, and even driving central banks to action.
The central banks of Russia and Norway each responded to lasting
low oil prices Thursday to try and stem the selloff in their
currencies. In the Persian Gulf, stock markets saw sharp
declines.
The price of Brent crude, which has tumbled a staggering 41% so
far this year, hit a fresh five-year low of below $63.90 per barrel
on Thursday.
"Prices are forecast to remain pressured for at least two more
quarters, " said Barclays oil market economist Miswin Mahesh. He
predicts that crude could slip below $60 a barrel in the near
term--a level which he says is simply not sustainable for markets
in the long run.
Russia's central bank on Thursday hiked its key interest rate to
10.5% from 9.5% and its deposit rate to 9.5% from 8.5%, in an
attempt to halt a slide in the ruble. The currency was battered
earlier this year by geopolitical tensions and resulting sanctions,
but its decline has been exacerbated in recent months by the oil
shock, especially after the 12-member Organization of the Petroleum
Exporting Countries rejected calls for drastic action in November
to cut their output. Around 50% of the Russia's annual budget
revenue stems from oil and gas exports.
Elsewhere in Europe, the Norwegian krone fell to a five-year low
against the euro Thursday after the central bank cut its key
interest rate to 1.25% from 1.5% to combat slowing domestic growth,
specifically citing the tanking price of oil.
The krone lost almost 1.5% against the euro after the
announcement, to trade just over nine kroner per euro. It has
depreciated around 7.4% against the euro since the start of the
year. Norges Bank was broadly expected to keep rates on hold; it
last cut rates in March 2012.
Norway is Europe's biggest crude exporter, and Norges Bank said
in a statement Thursday that "activity in the petroleum industry is
set to be weaker than projected earlier."
"The continuing collapse in oil prices now hangs like a bad
smell over markets," said Anthony Peters, a strategist at
London-based financial adviser SwissInvest, adding that it "creates
all kinds of conundrums in the foreign-exchange market."
Tim Ash, head of emerging market research for Standard Bank said
that Russia is now "like a rabbit caught in the headlights." The
central bank doesn't want to "waste" reserves by propping up the
ruble, "and doesn't really want to raise policy rates for fear of
pushing the economy deeper into recession."
So as long as oil stays low and sanctions remain, the ruble will
continue to feel the strain, he said.
Neil Shearing, emerging market economist at Capital Economics,
similarly described oil as a "wild card" for Russia.
"If prices rebound, the ruble is likely to follow suit. If they
remain at current levels or fall, the tendency will be toward
further ruble weakness," he said.
Société Générale strategists said that they now suggest buying
the Turkish lira against the ruble.
Turkey is a big energy importer, to the tune of some $55 billion
a year, or 6.5% of gross domestic product, according to Standard
Bank. Falling oil should deliver benefits for both the current
account and for inflation.
Further afield, stock markets in the Persian Gulf also plunged
on Thursday, with traders similarly pointing to oil.
Dubai's market was down more than 5%. The main index in Abu
Dhabi dropped 4.7%, Qatar slid 4.3% and Oman was down 4.2%. Saudi
Arabia's index, the largest in the region, fell 2.2%.
In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 subindex of oil and gas
companies was down 0.5% taking its slide so far this year to nearly
18%.
London's FTSE 100 index, a large proportion of which is exposed
to the oil and gas sector, fell around 0.8% taking losses so far in
December to over 4%.
According to several London-based traders, the recent tumble
also inspired the central bank of Nigeria to intervene yet again
late Wednesday, selling U.S. dollar to prop up the naira.
The central bank has taken action a number of times in recent
weeks. Early last week, the naira slumped to 186.9 versus the U.S.
dollar. It now trades just below 180, according to Thomson Reuters
data.
Oil and natural gas make up almost all of Nigeria's exports and
80% of government revenue, according to the International Monetary
Fund. Last week Nigeria's finance ministry proposed a lower
benchmark for the budgeted oil price, suggesting spending cuts.
A spokesman for the ministry of finance said last Thursday that
Africa's biggest crude producer is now budgeting for an oil price
of $65 per barrel, compared with the previous estimate of $73.
"The country lacks a large fiscal buffer, which would allow it
to maintain spending or run countercyclical policies," said Duet
Frontier Fund manager Hedi Ben-Mlouka, based in Dubai. As well as
Nigeria, Kazakhstan would likely be hit particularly hard too, he
said.
On Wednesday, a report by Business Monitor International, a
research unit of ratings company Fitch, said that the oil tumble
had materially increased the risk of sovereign default in emerging
markets, singling out Venezuela and Nigeria as particularly
vulnerable.
Chiara Albanese contributed to this article
Write to Josie Cox at josie.cox@wsj.com
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