Investors diving into Apple, Microsoft and Amazon help power
Nasdaq past 7000
By Corrie Driebusch and Ben Eisen
This article is being republished as part of our daily
reproduction of WSJ.com articles that also appeared in the U.S.
print edition of The Wall Street Journal (January 3, 2018).
The Nasdaq Composite closed above 7000 for the first time
Tuesday after racing to a fresh 1,000-point milestone in just over
eight months -- a pace not seen since the heights of the technology
boom.
Many global stock indexes have hit records or multiyear highs in
recent months, lifted by signs of a pickup in economic expansion
around the world.
The Nasdaq has risen faster than other major U.S. indexes over
the past year as investors, frustrated with low interest rates and
tepid global growth, bet on the prospects of large technology
companies such as Apple Inc., Google parent Alphabet Inc. and
Microsoft Corp., all of which are heavily weighted in the
index.
Those three companies, along with fellow heavyweights Amazon.com
Inc. and Facebook Inc., collectively contributed more than
two-thirds of the points that carried the Nasdaq from one
1000-point milestone to another, according to stock-market research
firm Birinyi Associates.
Such bets helped the Nasdaq jump 28% in 2017, beating the Dow
Jones Industrial Average's 25% gain and S&P 500's 19% rise. The
only two times the Nasdaq has passed 1,000-point milestones faster
were the 38 trading sessions the index took to advance to 4000 in
1999 and the 49 sessions it needed to top 5000 in 2000 -- shortly
before the dot-com bust.
Investors and analysts say there are few signs of a stock bubble
today, yet the rapid appreciation in everything from tech shares to
industrial stocks to bitcoin recently has some concerned about
whether the nearly nine-year bull market could be flirting with a
peak.
On Tuesday, the Nasdaq rose 103.51 points, or 1.5%, to 7006.90.
It has been 174 trading sessions since the index closed above 6000
for the first time.
Many investors and analysts have attributed much of stocks'
recent climb to strong corporate earnings, a potential boost from
tax cuts and signs of improving global growth, all of which help
offset worries that the surge has stretched stock valuations
unsustainably.
Earnings for technology companies have soared in 2017, but they
have been unable to keep up with price gains. The Nasdaq Composite
recently traded at roughly 28 times the past 12 months of earnings
for companies in the index, the highest level since 2004, according
to Thomson Reuters Datastream.
"Is it a bubble? No. Is it uncomfortably expensive? For me, it
is," said David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at
Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc.
Of course, prices relative to earnings remain far more subdued
than at the height of the dot-com boom, when many investors
measured a company's value based on how many page views an internet
company received in a given month instead of its earnings. Also the
Nasdaq Composite is no longer as concentrated in technology
companies. In 2000, nearly two-thirds of the market capitalization
of the index was tech stocks, compared with 45% this month.
"We find that arguments about valuation being stretched
certainly at the individual stock level are not true," said Jeffrey
Krumpelman, chief investment officer at RiverPoint Capital
Management, which is overweight tech stocks like Alphabet, Facebook
Inc., and Broadcom Ltd. He believes the increasing profitability of
tech stocks means they will continue to rise, at a pace "greater
than the market."
The tech industry and its importance in the wider economy have
changed dramatically since the last boom. In the late 1990s,
investors were largely betting on the promise of the internet.
Today, with the decade-old smartphone boom and advances in areas
like cloud computing and artificial intelligence, technology is
deeply embedded into the way people work and do business, and has
transformed industries including retail and entertainment.
That is reflected in the list of the most dominant companies.
The five biggest Nasdaq companies by market value in 2000 --
Microsoft, Cisco Systems Inc., Intel Corp., Oracle Corp. and Sun
Microsystems -- were focused heavily on building the internet or
serving technology to businesses. Today Microsoft remains in the
top-five group, but the other four -- Apple, Google, Amazon.com
Inc. and Facebook Inc. -- are ubiquitous consumer-focused
businesses with enormous profits from selling products and digital
advertising.
Much of the speculation for new technologies remains in the
private market. In 1999, nearly 550 companies completed initial
public offerings in the U.S., and about 375 of those being internet
or tech companies. In 2017, there were 189 U.S.-listed IPOs, 37 of
which were by tech or internet companies, according to Dealogic.
Many of the fastest-growing tech companies are steering clear of
public listings in favor of raising money from venture capital
funds that are flush with cash.
Still, individual investors' enthusiasm for stocks is on the
rise, a trend that worries some money managers.
Expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six
months jumped to 53% for the week ended Dec. 27, above their
historical average of 39%, according to the AAII Sentiment Survey.
It is a level not seen in more than three years. Bank of America
Merrill Lynch's equity strategists said that investor mood tends to
drive returns in the later stages of the bull market. They warned
earlier in December that "2018 could be the year that investors max
out."
"Usually the best time to buy equities is when everyone is
depressed and people are hiding under the table," said Mr.
Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff, noting that this was the case in the
spring of 2009. Today, market-sentiment readings are near record
highs and stock portfolio managers are holding less cash than
typical.
A milestone such as the Nasdaq crossing 7000 "will be a real
test of investor resolve," he said. "This is probably one of those
times to become a little cautious."
Write to Corrie Driebusch at corrie.driebusch@wsj.com and Ben
Eisen at ben.eisen@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 03, 2018 02:47 ET (07:47 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2018 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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