JPMorgan Chase Institute’s Local Consumer Commerce Idx Shows a 0.3 Percent Decrease in Consumer Spending Growth in October ...
February 15 2017 - 10:12AM
Business Wire
Growth contributions from large businesses
rebounded significantly from September 2016
Today, the JPMorgan Chase Institute released its Local Consumer
Commerce Index (LCCI) for October 2016, which showed that five of
the 15 U.S. cities analyzed saw positive growth in year-over-year
spending. However, overall, year-over-year consumer spending growth
declined by 0.3 percent in October – making it the fourth
consecutive month of negative growth.
Denver continued to experience the fastest growth of all cities
studied, this time at 7.9 percent year-over-year. Across all 15
cities, growth contributions from large businesses rebounded
significantly from September 2016, adding 1.2 percentage points to
overall growth. However, this rebound was offset by declines in
growth contributions from small and medium businesses.
This report provides a timely view of how the following cities
and surrounding metro areas are faring economically, both
individually and in aggregate: Atlanta, Chicago, Columbus, Dallas,
Denver, Detroit, Houston, Miami, Los Angeles, New York, Phoenix,
Portland (OR), San Diego, San Francisco, and Seattle. By looking at
actual anonymized financial transactions, LCCI offers an ongoing,
dynamic view of the health and vibrancy of the U.S. consumer and
the places where businesses operate.
“Despite a slight contraction, October 2016 brought some
positive developments in local consumer commerce,” said Diana
Farrell, President and CEO of the JPMorgan Chase Institute.
“Large businesses helped drive this change, as did ongoing spending
growth from millennials and low income consumers. We are hopeful
that November and December brought continued increases thanks to
local holiday spending.”
The key highlights from the latest Index include:
- Smaller cities, such as Seattle, San
Diego, Denver, Portland, and Columbus, continued to grow faster
than mid-sized and large cities, with a 2.1 percent overall average
growth rate in October 2016.
- The top forty percent of consumers –
from an income perspective - continued to be a drag on growth in
October 2016, slightly overshadowing the positive growth
contributed by the bottom sixty percent in that month.
- Small business growth contributions
fell sharply in October 2016, subtracting 0.5 percentage points
from growth in that month. This is a significant decline relative
to the 2.3 percentage point contribution in September. This is only
the fourth time in our series that small businesses have detracted
from growth.
- Large businesses recovered
significantly from the 2 percentage point subtraction from overall
growth in September 2016, contributing 1.2 percentage points to
growth in October.
- With a contribution of 0.9 percentage
points, year-over-year spending growth on nondurables, such as
office supplies and clothing, recovered in October after the
decline experienced in September 2016.
The LCCI offers unique advantages over existing measures of
consumer spending.
- The LCCI captures actual transactions,
instead of self-reported measures of how consumers think they
spend.
- The LCCI provides timely data on
spending in 15 major metropolitan areas; such geographic
granularity is unavailable in most other spending measures. These
15 cities mirror the geographic and economic diversity of larger
metropolitan areas in the United States and account for 32 percent
of retail sales nationwide.
- The index also presents a more granular
view of local consumer commerce through five important lenses:
consumer age, consumer income, business size, product type, and
consumer residence relative to the location of the business. For
each lens, we show how different segments contributed to
year-over-year spending growth.
- The LCCI captures economic activity in
sectors that previously have not been well understood by other data
sources. These include sectors such as food trucks, new merchants,
and personal services.
Each release of the LCCI will describe the economic picture of
local communities and provide a powerful tool for city development
officials, businesses, investors, and statistical agencies to
better understand the everyday economic health of consumers,
businesses, and the places they care about.
About the JPMorgan Chase Institute
The JPMorgan Chase Institute is a global think tank dedicated to
delivering data-rich analyses and expert insights for the public
good. Its aim is to help decision makers – policymakers,
businesses, and nonprofit leaders – appreciate the scale,
granularity, diversity, and interconnectedness of the global
economic system and use better facts, timely data, and thoughtful
analysis to make smarter decisions to advance global prosperity.
Drawing on JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s unique proprietary data,
expertise, and market access, the Institute develops analyses and
insights on the inner workings of the global economy, frames
critical problems, and convenes stakeholders and leading thinkers.
For more information visit: jpmorganchaseinstitute.com.
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version on businesswire.com: http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20170215005755/en/
Media:JPMorgan Chase InstituteNicole Kennedy,
215-864-5732nicole.kennedy@chase.com
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