JPMorgan Chase Institute’s Local Consumer Commerce Idx Shows a 0.1 Percent Decrease in Consumer Spending Growth in November...
March 02 2017 - 9:00AM
Business Wire
Marks the fifth consecutive month of spending
contractions; magnitude of contractions fell continually since
August
Today, the JPMorgan Chase Institute released its Local Consumer
Commerce Index (LCCI) for November 2016, which showed that 9 of the
15 US cities analyzed had higher year-over-year consumer spending
growth rates in November than they did in October. While overall
year-over-year consumer spending growth declined by 0.1 percent in
November – making it the fifth consecutive month of negative growth
– the magnitude of those contractions has continually decreased
since August.
Across all 15 cities, fuel spending contributed 0.1 percentage
points to growth, breaking a trend of negative growth contributions
in virtually every month since October 2014.
This report provides a timely view of how the following cities
and surrounding metro areas are faring economically, both
individually and in aggregate: Atlanta, Chicago, Columbus, Dallas,
Denver, Detroit, Houston, Miami, Los Angeles, New York, Phoenix,
Portland (OR), San Diego, San Francisco, and Seattle. By looking at
actual de-identified financial transactions, LCCI offers an
ongoing, dynamic view of the health and vibrancy of the U.S.
consumer and the places where businesses operate.
“While we are still seeing an overall contraction in
year-over-year local commerce growth, it’s encouraging to see the
magnitude of these contractions decreasing over time,” said
Diana Farrell, President and CEO of the JPMorgan Chase
Institute. “Many changes contributed to this positive
trajectory including notably strong growth in spending at small
businesses but also a rare, if small, increase in fuel spending
growth.”
The key highlights from the latest Index include:
- Houston registered a 3.3 percent
decline in November 2016—a smaller contraction compared to the 6.1
percent drop in August 2016, but a larger contraction in comparison
to the 2.9 percent drop in September 2016.
- Detroit experienced flat growth in
November 2016, breaking a trend of declines in growth that started
in July 2016.
- Small business growth rebounded
significantly to contribute 0.9 percentage points in November, but
this growth was offset by a 0.9 percentage point contraction in
mid-sized business growth in that same month.
- Other services, like barbers, health
providers, and gyms, contributed 0.9 percentage points to growth in
November 2016, the largest contribution across all product types in
that month. At the same time, durables spending subtracted 1.1
percentage points from growth, the largest detraction of any
product type in November 2016. Durables have been a consistent drag
on growth since August 2015.
The LCCI offers unique advantages over existing measures of
consumer spending.
- The LCCI captures actual transactions,
instead of self-reported measures of how consumers think they
spend.
- The LCCI provides timely data on
spending in 15 major metropolitan areas; such geographic
granularity is unavailable in most other spending measures. These
15 cities mirror the geographic and economic diversity of larger
metropolitan areas in the United States and account for 32 percent
of retail sales nationwide.
- The index also presents a more granular
view of local consumer commerce through five important lenses:
consumer age, consumer income, business size, product type, and
consumer residence relative to the location of the business. For
each lens, we show how different segments contributed to
year-over-year spending growth.
- The LCCI captures economic activity in
sectors that previously have not been well understood by other data
sources. These include sectors such as food trucks, new merchants,
and personal services.
Each release of the LCCI will describe the economic picture of
local communities and provide a powerful tool for city development
officials, businesses, investors, and statistical agencies to
better understand the everyday economic health of consumers,
businesses, and the places they care about.
About the JPMorgan Chase Institute
The JPMorgan Chase Institute is a global think tank dedicated to
delivering data-rich analyses and expert insights for the public
good. Its aim is to help decision makers – policymakers,
businesses, and nonprofit leaders – appreciate the scale,
granularity, diversity, and interconnectedness of the global
economic system and use better facts, timely data, and thoughtful
analysis to make smarter decisions to advance global prosperity.
Drawing on JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s unique proprietary data,
expertise, and market access, the Institute develops analyses and
insights on the inner workings of the global economy, frames
critical problems, and convenes stakeholders and leading thinkers.
For more information visit: jpmorganchaseinstitute.com.
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JPMorgan Chase InstituteNicole Kennedy,
215-864-5732nicole.kennedy@chase.com
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