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Alpesh Patel's columns :
06/04/2004	Not bad at all
06/01/2004	May was better than April, hows about June then?
05/21/2004	Broader Market View
05/14/2004	Interest Rates or GDP?
04/30/2004	The Run Up To May
04/23/2004	Some Big Picture Views
04/16/2004	Growth Spurt or Splutter
04/13/2004	The interest in Interest rates : beware and prepare.
04/07/2004	Pick a Direction Already
03/26/2004	After Gordon's Words
03/24/2004	Hidden Opportunities
03/10/2004	Hidden Opportunities and Big Momentum
02/26/2004	So Much Uncertainty
01/13/2004	The Resolutions
01/02/2004	The Year's High
12/22/2003	Slow down or Ramp up?
12/16/2003	Xmas Rally or Not?
12/09/2003	That good news is bad for the markets
11/27/2003	It's not Christmas Yet
11/13/2003	Now they have risen
11/07/2003	From here until rate rises
10/30/2003	The Best Advice from now until end Dec
09/29/2003	Lessons in shorting
08/29/2003	One Last Throw of the Dice
08/26/2003	To hot in the kitchen. and everywhere else

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Alpesh Patel – A weekly look at market opportunities and pitfalls

Alpesh B. Patel is one of the UK's best-known traders and financial journalists. He writes a regular column for the Financial Times, has written seven bestselling books on trading, and makes regular television appearances for Bloomberg, Sky Television, Channel 4, The Money Channel, and the BBC.

Big Rally Big Fall

11/08/2004

Well, well. As I mentioned last week, before the US results, 'if we do get an unequivocal Bush victory we will almost certainly see a sharp move up.

The point is, for those who trade options or 'OCO' (one cancels other where if the price moves up you go long (see the jargon buster at the end of this column) and if it moves down you go short), this week is ideal. I am a reactive not a predictive trader. I wait for the price to move in a particular direction before I make my move.'

So there we are, we got the rally. But as I said on each of my three ITN appearances last week - it's oil that is on the market's mind. And earnings are not a driving force. So those earnings statistics again:

'US earnings 79 percent of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings. Operating profit is up 14 percent from the same period a year ago, below the 31 percent gain shown in the second quarter and the first quarter's 27 percent.

More importantly, a total of 64 percent of earnings have come in above expectations, 16 percent have matched and 20 percent have missed according to Thomson research. Companies are beating estimates by 2.9 percent, in line with the long-term average of 3 percent. The company's negative-to-positive ratio stands at 1.6 for the fourth quarter, meaning there have been 1.6 negative pre-announcements for every positive one. The long term average is 1.8.

The bottom line: don't look at earnings to be the driving force for the market.'

Presently, if you want to trade the Dow, then follow the oil price, if it falls, stocks will rise. If it rises then vice versa. The problem is, this coupling will not last.

I am speaking on Wednesday 10th November in Leeds about my latest stock ideas (circa 6pm) - if you would like details then drop me an email with your postal address to alpesh@tradermind.com. Equally, if you would like a free multi-media CDROM on 'Investing Better' posted to you please do the same. So what is my take on oil (Light Crude for Dec delivery)?

Uptrend clearly broken of course. Downtrend in short term in place. Oversold in the short-term suggesting further downward moves. Anyway, without a move above $52.5 in the next week, the downtrend is intact. The weekly chart supports this view and suggests as low as $43 in 2 months time.

Value-Growth

On my value growth criteria which are based on stocks meeting revenue and profit growth and good value based on criteria such as price earnings growth, the following names come up. Remember they are for a 6 month outlook: Severfield-Rowen - this is new to the list and has had a good rally. Others are from last week still on here: Findel, DTZ and Hitachi.

Crazy Small Stock

These are high risk volatile stocks which could move sharply higher or move sharply lower in my view, but will almost certainly not stand still. Names on the radar include Macfarlane Group, Chieftain Group, Caldwell Investments, Bede, Teather & Greenwood.