Argonne’s Decarbonization Scenario Model Analyzes Ambitious Pathways to Net-Zero Carbon Emissions
April 17 2024 - 5:17PM
Business Wire
While the world would love to have a quick fix, there is no one
specific pathway to stop or slow the rate of climate change.
While decarbonization pathways are complex, varied and specific
to individual industries, clean-energy technologies and low- and
zero-carbon fuels are integral to all carbon dioxide (CO2)
mitigation strategies across the U.S. economy. And as scientists
develop strategies, they are also creating tools to assess
them.
Now, scientists at the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Argonne
National Laboratory have introduced the Decarbonization Scenario
Analysis Model, which measures the effect of carbon mitigation
approaches on energy use and greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) across
the U.S. economy. The tool is benefited from Argonne’s Greenhouse
gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (GREET®)
lifecycle analysis models.
In a recently published paper in the journal Sustainable Energy
& Fuels, researchers applied the Decarbonization Scenario
Analysis Model to analyze decarbonization scenarios from 2020
through 2050 across five sectors of the U.S. economy:
transportation, industrial, agriculture, residential/commercial and
energy power. The emissions of CO2 and other GHGs such as methane
that are warming the planet come primarily from these sectors of
the economy.
The study was led by Saurajyoti Kar, an Argonne post-doctoral
appointee and a developer of the model. He and his colleagues say
policy and technology analysts can use the open-source tool to
assess carbon-mitigation approaches specific to each industry.
“The model estimates the total energy use across the economy and
focuses on how we will meet that energy demand into the future,”
said Troy Hawkins, manager of the Fuels and Products Group in
Argonne’s Energy Systems and Infrastructure Analysis division and a
developer of the model. “With this tool, we are helping various
industries understand what the future might look like, to help
guide their decarbonization planning.”
“Economy-wide decarbonization at a sustainable rate is a complex
topic. It requires a dynamic systemic and life-cycle approach to
assess feasibility,” said Kar. “The approach must take into
account the transitioning energy demands across the economy, as
well anthropogenic (originating from human activity) greenhouse gas
emissions.”
Using a comprehensive approach combining top-down and bottom-up
modeling, the total based on life-cycle analysis of technology
pathways provides a high level of detail, Hawkins said. Top-down
modeling offers a high-level perspective, while bottom-up modeling
analyzes individual scenarios in detail.
Developing carbon-mitigation strategies
After analyzing decarbonization scenarios from 2020 to 2050,
researchers developed carbon mitigation strategies for each sector.
Researchers proposed one ambitious decarbonization pathway that
reduced GHG emissions 80-90% economy-wide in 2050 compared to the
baseline. The modeling effort represents various factors, trends
and potential advancements expected to occur in the U.S. energy
landscape over the specified timeframe.
Key components of the economy-wide pathway are replacement and
scale-up of the electric grid with renewable energy sources such as
wind, solar, hydropower, geothermal and biomass; partially
electrifying the transportation sector; using low- or zero-carbon
biofuels; improving building energy efficiency and replacing
natural gas with renewable energy sources.
While the economy-wide carbon-mitigation pathway itself is
feasible, reducing GHG emissions 80-90% would be enormously
challenging. Progress depends on transforming each area of the
economy, including deep CO2 emission cuts across all industries and
in hard-to-abate sectors like aerospace and locomotives.
Importantly, the model is not intended to put users on an
overnight path to net-zero. Rather, the Decarbonization Scenario
Analysis Model is a data-backed tool to help users assess what is
and what is not working in specific decarbonization scenarios to
guide future decisions. For example, making choices on technology —
the engine that drives decarbonization — can impact carbon
mitigation for years or even decades down the line.
Researchers focused on transitioning from high-carbon to
low-carbon technologies, making current technologies more efficient
and replacing conventional fuel with renewable options.
The model does not include carbon-negative technology such as
carbon capture and storage but can be expanded to include
carbon-reduction technologies that would reduce CO2 emissions even
further. Expansion of biofuel pathways could also reduce CO2
emissions.
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Christopher J. Kramer Head of Media Relations Argonne National
Laboratory Office: 630.252.5580 Email: media@anl.gov