Moody's Review of BHP's Credit Rating Piles On Pressure
December 18 2015 - 8:20AM
Dow Jones News
LONDON—Moody's Investors Service said on Friday it was reviewing
the credit rating of mining giant BHP Billiton Ltd. for a possible
downgrade, ratcheting up pressure on the world's largest
diversified miner, amid tumbling commodities prices and a mining
disaster at a BHP joint venture in Brazil.
The commodities rout has sent mining shares falling sharply,
triggering moves by many to shore up cash through asset sales and
dividend cuts. BHP, however, enjoys one of the industry's strongest
balance sheets, and its low-cost operations have helped buoy
earnings, compared with many peers.
It has long enjoyed a solid, investment-grade A1 rating from
Moody's. The agency said on Friday, however, that it was reviewing
whether to downgrade that to A2—still comfortably investment
grade—after Moody's lowered price assumptions for BHP-produced
commodities like oil, iron ore and coal.
"The review for downgrade reflects Moody's expectation that weak
commodity prices will persist for the next several years,
significantly reducing BHP Billiton's earnings and cash flow
generation," said Matthew Moore, a senior credit officer at the
agency.
BHP shares were up 6 pence, or 0.8%, at 705.7 pence a share in
late-morning London trading, while the FTSE-350 mining index was
flat, and shares of fellow Anglo-Australian peer Rio Tinto PLC were
down 0.4% in London.
Moody's lowered its crude oil price assumption to $43 and $48 a
barrel in 2016 and 2017, respectively, and forecast iron ore to
average $40 and $45 a ton for those years. Oil and iron ore are
BHP's biggest earnings drivers, with each dollar movement in those
two commodities moving the company's bottom line by about $200
million this financial year, according to the company.
The credit scrutiny for BHP follows Moody's decision last week
to downgrade Anglo American, the world's fifth-largest miner by
market value, by a notch, due to weak commodity prices. Anglo
American has responded vigorously to the fall in commodities,
promising to shed assets and employees and suspending its dividend.
Glencore PLC, a mining and trading giant, earlier this year made
similar moves to bolster its balance sheet— suspending its dividend
and promising big asset sales.
Moody's warned that, without "material countermeasures" taken by
BHP, it would risk a downgrade. Moody's expects the miner's key
credit ratio of adjusted debt to earnings before interest, taxes,
depreciation and amortization, or Ebitda, to come in at 2.0 to 2.5
over the next 18 months, given BHP's current capital expenditure
and dividend plans. That's just above the maximum 1.5 limit set for
Moody's A1 credit rating.
A BHP spokesman declined to comment. Chairman Jacques Nasser
didn't rule out a dividend cut at an investor meeting in November,
saying "the one thing we never risk is the strength of the balance
sheet through the cycle."
Further pressuring BHP is a mining disaster at a joint venture
it owns with Vale SA. Last month, a dam burst at an iron-ore mine
operated by Samarco Minerao SA, unleashing an avalanche of mud that
killed at least 15 people, destroyed villages downstream, and
polluted hundreds of miles of waterways in the Rio Doce basin. The
Brazilian government has called on Samarco to set up a $20-billion
Brazilian reais ($5.2 billion) fund to deal with the flood's social
and environmental damage. BHP Billiton previously said it is
committed to supporting Samarco rebuild the community and restore
the environment.
Write to Alex MacDonald at alex.macdonald@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 18, 2015 08:05 ET (13:05 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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