DEALWATCH: Prudential CEO's Position, Like His Deal, Uncertain
May 10 2010 - 8:05AM
Dow Jones News
Prudential PLC (PRU.LN) CEO Tidjane Thiam's goal of transforming
the U.K. insurer through a large Asian acquisition hangs in the
balance this week. And, with shareholder concerns about the deal
mounting, Thiam's own position at the head of the company is
looking increasingly uncertain.
For Thiam, the most pressing challenge is to assuage the
concerns of the U.K. financial regulator, the Financial Services
Authority, on the capital position of Prudential if the planned
acquisition of American International Group Inc.'s (AIG) Asian
assets in a $35.5 billion deal goes through. Even if he achieves
this, there's no guarantee that shareholders, already concerned
about the mammoth $20 billion-plus rights issue being used to
finance the deal, will swing behind his vision.
"If the core shareholders don't believe in the AIA transaction,
it's difficult to see how [Thiam] could stay on," said James
Chappell, an insurance analyst with Olivetree Securities in
London.
The FSA's concerns over the deal--centered on the implications
for the capital position of the enlarged group and the potential
problems of repatriating capital from Asian markets to Prudential's
U.K. headquarters--are the latest stumbling block in a long series
of hitches that have eroded the confidence of some shareholders
toward what was already seen as a risky deal.
Prudential worked hard to court its large shareholders when the
deal was initially announced, people familiar with the matter say.
And many of these shareholders are still committed to the logic of
the deal. But a series of perceived misstep's by management are
beginning to try the patience of others.
The size of the rights issue is considered risky in itself,
people familiar with the matter say. After it was announced March
1, Prudential's shares plunged by almost 20%, though they have
since recovered. According to unconfirmed U.K. news reports,
Prudential's largest shareholder Capital Group Cos. Inc., believes
there is better value to be had in a break-up of Prudential and a
divestment of its U.K. business. Capital has declined to
comment.
None of the Prudential's top 20 shareholders has publicly broken
rank on the deal. But existing concern about the size and risk of
the rights issue has been amplified by the FSA's questions. With
Europe's largest nations battling to stabilize market jitters over
Greece, the U.K. grappling with the uncertainty created by a hung
Parliament and the timetable for the rights issue already slipping
back, these concerns could yet destabilize the deal even if the FSA
gives the deal its seal of approval.
Last week, Neptune Investment Management, a U.K.-based fund
manager with a position in Prudential worth around GBP50 million,
said it was seeking the backing of other shareholders for a vote of
no confidence in Thiam.
Standard Life Investments, a unit of Standard Life PLC (SL.LN),
a major U.K. institutional fund manager that holds just under 1% of
the Prudential's equity, told The BBC's Radio 4 on Monday that it
was concerned about the cost of the deal.
"When they announced the deal, it seemed quite an expensive way
to proceed ... and it does look as if that price has just gone up,"
said Euan Stirling, investment director for Standard Life.
Another among Prudential's 20 largest shareholders told Dow
Jones on Monday that it "has had issues with this deal from day
one, and things haven't improved." Although a person familiar with
this firm's intentions stopped short of calling for Thiam to stand
down, the person said that some shareholders were "extremely
disgruntled" and without clarity on the regulatory position it
would be difficult to back the deal.
News reports over the weekend suggested that Prudential was
close to agreeing to a deal with the FSA that would see it
ring-fence an additional GBP1 billion of capital to deal with the
risk to its capital reserves created by the transaction. Neither
Prudential nor the FSA commented Monday.
Thiam, who took charge of Prudential in October 2009, said when
he took over that he didn't plan to change the group strategy, but
would focus on "execution and delivery."
Prior to taking over at Prudential, Thiam had worked as a
government minister in his native Ivory Coast, in consultancy roles
at McKinsey & Co. and more recently at U.K. insurer Aviva PLC
(AV.LN).
-By Jessica Hodgson; Dow Jones Newswires; +44207 8429373;
jessica.hodgson@dowjones.com.
(Vladimir Guevarra contributed to this article.)
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