Regulatory News:
United Company RUSAL Plc (Paris:RUSAL) (Paris:RUAL):
Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited and The Stock Exchange
of Hong Kong Limited take no responsibility for the contents of
this announcement, make no representation as to its accuracy or
completeness and expressly disclaim any liability whatsoever for
any loss howsoever arising from or in reliance upon the whole or
any part of the contents of this announcement.
UNITED COMPANY RUSAL PLC(Incorporated
under the laws of Jersey with limited liability)(Stock Code:
486)
FOURTH QUARTER AND FULL YEAR 2015 TRADING
UPDATE
This announcement is made by United Company RUSAL Plc (“UC
RUSAL” or the “Company”) pursuant to Rule 13.09 of the Rules
Governing the Listing of Securities on The Stock Exchange of Hong
Kong Limited, the Inside Information Provisions under Part XIVA of
the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Cap. 571, Laws of Hong Kong)
and applicable French laws and regulations.
Shareholders and potential investors are advised to exercise
caution when dealing in the shares of UC RUSAL.
UC RUSAL announces its operating results for fourth quarter
2015 (“4Q15”) and 12 months 2015 (“12M15”).
Aluminium
• Aluminium production1 in 4Q15 totaled 878 thousand tons (-4.0%
QoQ) remaining flat on the YoY basis.
• 4Q15 aluminium sales2 totaled 876 thousand tons (-6.7% QoQ).
Sales reduction was attributable to a relatively high level of 3Q15
sales on export and domestic markets and a marginal increase of
inventories (goods in transit) in 4Q15 to be distributed 1Q16. The
share of VAP3 in the overall aluminium sales portfolio in 4Q15 was
44%.
• 4Q15 realised price decreased by 6.2% QoQ to USD1,729/t
reflecting the general downward trend of London Metal Exchange
(“LME”) aluminium prices in the second half of 2015 (please refer
to the Market review section for further details).
• 12M15 aluminium production totalled 3,603 thousand tons (flat
YoY).
• 12M15 aluminium sales totaled 3,638 thousand tons (+3.2% YoY),
with 43% share of VAP in the sales portfolio. Average realised
price in 12M15 was at USD2,001/t (-9.8%, YoY).
Alumina
• 4Q15 alumina production totaled 1,906 thousand tons (+1.9%
QoQ). International operations (including Aughinish, Nikolaev,
Windalco and JV Queensland) accounted for the major part (66%) of
the output. The production growth was largely attributable to
stronger internal (intercompany) demand.
• 12M15 production totalled 7,402 thousand tons (+2.0% YoY).
Bauxites
• 4Q15 bauxite44 and nepheline ores production totalled 2,850
thousand tons (-13.4% QoQ) and 952 thousand tons (-9.6% QoQ),
respectively. Bauxite production volumes decline was largely
attributable to seasonal factors in Russia where volumes were down
QoQ due to weather conditions. In advance of the winter season,
inventories were built in 3Q15 to keep supplies stable at Group
aluminium smelters. International assets bauxite production
totalled 1,713 thousand tons (-1.4% QoQ). Output at Windalco and
Bauxite Company of Guyana were lower QoQ due to seasonal planned
repairs and destocking.
• 12M15 production of bauxite and nepheline ore totalled 12,112
thousand tons (no change YoY) and 4,111 thousand tons (-6.5% YoY),
accordingly.
Production guidance
• The Company does not plan on restarting the aluminium smelters
idled in 2013 and is considering further aluminium production cuts
totaling approximately 200 thousand tons per annum.
Market review5
• In 4Q15 average aluminium LME Cash price was on average at
USD1,495 /t (-5.9% QoQ). LME prices remained volatile (trading in
the range of USD1,425/t - USD1,597/t) during the quarter amid
remaining concerns over continuing reduction in the oil price and
negative Chinese economy scenarios accompanied by an aggressive
yuan devaluation and mounting aluminium exports. Commodity grade
premiums recovered during 4Q15 after they dipped below
transportation / insurance component levels in September and
October 2015. EU premium (duty unpaid) increased from USD65/t to
USD117/t during the 4Q15 and stabilized at USD100/t in the middle
of January 2016. Japan´s 1Q16 aluminium premiums were set at
USD110/t growing 22% QoQ on falling local inventory and higher
premiums across other regions.
• Following several announcements on aluminium capacity cuts in
China in 4Q15 with total closures of 4.4 mn tons/year in 2015
aluminium production started to decline in December 2015 (-8.7%
MoM), indicating an improving supply discipline in the region.
Ex-China production in December 2015 was remained flat (-0.3% MoM).
Domestic inventories in China at the largest warehouses in China
fell 7 kt to 663 kt in the period of January which shows evidence
of capacity cuts and improving balance and despite traditional
restocking in the begging of each year. From its pick of 1.2 mn
tons in May 2015 stocks have dropped by 45%.
• China added 3.7 mn of new capacity into operation thus net
operating capacity growth of China in 2015 changed insignificantly.
In 2016 it is expected China to ramp up around 3 mn tons of new
capacity and close around 1.5 mn tons thus capacity growth for
2015-2016 to be much lower compared to last 5 years.
• Chinese net semis export grew by 17.5% in 2015 to 3.7 mn tons.
As expected Chinese semis exports will slowdown in 2016 compared to
2015 on lower arbitrage and tight domestic metal supply.
• Global aluminum demand grew by 5.6% in 2015 YoY to 56.4 mn
tons. As expected global aluminum demand continue growth at a
healthy 5.7% growth in 2016 to 59.5 mn tons as a result of strong
ex-China demand growth in North America, Europe and Asia. Chinese
growth is expected to continue to be strong at 7% YoY.
• Manufacturing PMI´s in the end of 2015 are become more
constructive in Japan, Korea and Taiwan, as well as Southern Europe
to further support aluminum consumption growth in 1H16.
• Around 1 mn tons of ex-China production was cut in 2015 and
another 0.5 mn tons will be cut in 1H of 2016, maintaining a strong
2 mn tons deficit from 2016-2020. Overall we expect 1.2 mn tons of
global aluminum market deficit in 2016 compared to 0.6 mn tons of
surplus in 2015.
• The news on aluminium capacity curtailments are supporting the
LME Aluminium price and premiums are expected to stabilize at
current levels in 1Q16. The upside of the aluminium “all-in” price
on the short-term horizon will be dependent on FX rates, underlying
energy prices and the positioning of commodity funds based on their
views of the Chinese economy.
KEY OPERATING DATA
GROUP PRODUCTION DATA6
(‘000 tons)
4Q15 3Q15 Change,
% (QoQ) 12M15 12M14
Change, % (YoY) Aluminium 878 916 -4.0% 3,603 3,601
0.0% Aluminium foil and packaging products 22.4 22.1 1.4% 89.1 93.6
-4.8% Alumina 1,906 1,870 1.9% 7,402 7,253 2.0% Bauxite 2,850 3,290
-13.4% 12,112 12,108 0.0% Nepheline 952 1,053 -9.6% 4,111 4,396
-6.5%
GROUP SALES DATA
(‘000 tons), unless otherwise indicated
4Q15
3Q15 Change, % (QoQ) 12M15
12M14 Change, % (YoY) Aluminium
sales 876 939 -6.7% 3,638 3,525 3.2% Share of VAP 44% 46% 43% 46%
Aluminium realised price, USD/t 1,729 1,843 -6.2% 2,001 2,219 -9.8%
JOINT VENTURES PRODUCTION
4Q15 3Q15 Change, % (QoQ)
12M15 12M14 Change, %
(YoY) Bogatyr Komir and Bogatyr Trans Coal (50%)
(Kt) 5,438 3,973 37% 17,241 19,001 -9.3% Transport (50%) (Kt of
transportation) 2,017 1,841 10% 6,482 6,588 -1.6%
Boguchanskaya HP Electricity generation, mwh 2,881 4,231
-31.9% 13,077 8,362 56.4%
United Company RUSAL PlcAby Wong
Po YingCompany Secretary
11 February 2016
As at the date of this announcement, the executive Directors are
Mr. Oleg Deripaska, Mr. Vladislav Soloviev and Mr. Stalbek
Mishakov, the non-executive Directors are Mr. Maxim Sokov, Mr.
Dmitry Afanasiev, Mr. Len Blavatnik, Mr. Ivan Glasenberg, Mr.
Maksim Goldman, Ms. Gulzhan Moldazhanova, Mr. Daniel Lesin Wolfe,
Ms. Olga Mashkovskaya and Ms. Ekaterina Nikitina, and the
independent non-executive Directors are Mr. Matthias Warnig
(Chairman), Dr. Peter Nigel Kenny, Mr. Philip Lader, Ms. Elsie
Leung Oi-sie, Mr. Mark Garber and Mr. Dmitry Vasiliev.
All announcements and press releases published by the Company
are available on its website under the links
http://www.rusal.ru/en/investors/info.aspx,
http://rusal.ru/investors/info/moex/ and
http://www.rusal.ru/en/press-center/press-releases.aspx,
respectively.
1 Aluminium production represented by salable products output.
Production volumes are based on preliminary data and can be updated
in 4Q15 financial results.2 Sales volume and realised sales price
based on preliminary data and can be updated in 4Q15 financial
results.3 VAP includes alloyed ingots, slabs, billets and wire
rod.4 Bauxite production volumes differs from the volumes given in
the 3Q15 trading update due to the exclusion of low grade bauxites
from the output. Exclusion of low grade bauxites from supplementary
operating data has no impact on financial results.5 Data for the
Market review section is sourced from Bloomberg, Metal Bulletin,
CNIA and IAI6 The production data throughout the report is
presented on equity-adjusted basis. Production volumes are
calculated based on the pro rata share of the Company´s (and its
subsidiaries´) ownership.
View source
version on businesswire.com: http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20160210005884/en/
United Company RUSAL Plc