Southeast Asian Nations Assess Options Amid Trade-Deal Uncertainty
December 09 2016 - 10:20AM
Dow Jones News
BALI, Indonesia—Southeast Asian officials hunkered together
Friday to assess where the region stands in the wake of global
shocks, including the near-certain death of a sweeping trade deal
with the U.S. following the election of Donald Trump as
president.
An official of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian
Nations, under whose auspices the low-profile meeting was held,
said the agenda included "recent developments in global politics"
as well as "regional peace, security and stability." Other regional
officials said that extended to discussions of the South China Sea,
where four Southeast Asian countries have overlapping claims with
China.
An Indonesian official said Jakarta planned the meeting as a
"one-off" to address a host of issues. Permanent Secretary Chee Wee
Kiong of Singapore's Ministry of Foreign Affairs described the
gathering of foreign affairs officials as "informal." No statement
was issued.
Officials in attendance said they agreed on the need to press
ahead with Asean's own economic integration as a way to survive
uncertain times, including the prospect of disengagement by
governments in the U.S. and Europe, where anti-globalization
sentiments have also been gaining traction.
One Southeast Asian diplomat, who didn't want to be identified,
said the meeting on this resort island was to sound out positions
in a region that has struggled for unity. The Asean countries have
long positioned their bloc as a balancing point between global
superpowers. Most heavily depend on China for trade, while
maintaining deep security and investment ties with the U.S.
Ernest Bower, CEO of business consultancy BowerGroupAsia and a
senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International
Studies in Washington, said the meeting was "clearly in response to
the massive potential geopolitical impact of Trump's victory and
the clear signals he is sending that he intends to deal differently
with China and Asia than his predecessors have."
Four of the nations attending—Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia and
Brunei—were part of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact, which
was a cornerstone of President Barack Obama's pivot to the region.
Others including the Philippines and Indonesia had expressed their
intent to join.
Mr. Trump has vowed to cancel U.S. participation in the TPP,
which the U.S. has signed but not yet ratified. To take effect,
the pact requires that at least six countries representing at least
85% of the combined GDP of the 12 founding members ratify the pact
within two years. Without the U.S., the 11 remaining members would
not meet the GDP threshold.
Mr. Obama saw the region of more than 600 million people, with a
combined economy of more than $2.5 trillion, as a counterweight to
China's rising influence, and attended annual meetings of Asean
leaders to help cement the relationship. Mr. Trump has given little
indication of his intentions for the region.
The Southeast Asian diplomat said that the death of the U.S.-led
trade pact would leave Asian countries more likely to entertain a
simpler deal shepherded by Beijing. "This will account for half the
world's population," the official said. "He will not ignore
this."
Mr. Trump already has business ventures in Southeast Asia,
signing deals last year with one of Indonesia's wealthiest
businessmen to bring Trump Hotels to the region for the first time.
In the Philippines, the 56-story Trump Tower Manila is being built
by a real-estate magnate who was recently appointed trade envoy to
the U.S. Mr. Trump has said he is taking steps to separate himself
from his businesses, although House Democrats and others have
questioned whether conflicts of interest will remain.
Mr. Trump's election comes at a critical time for Asean, which
seeks to establish closer economic links and present a unified
diplomatic front despite the disparity among giant members such as
Indonesia, with 250 million people, and tiny but rich Singapore and
Brunei.
New Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has already sought to
loosen his country's ties to the U.S., its longtime ally, in favor
of closer relations and trade with China, playing down their
dispute over territory in the South China Sea.
Others seem to be standing firm. Amid news reports this week
that Vietnam had begun dredging on a reef in a disputed area, a
senior Vietnamese official in Hanoi denied that any work was taking
place but noted that his country "has the right to do so."
Asked about the same reports, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman
Lu Kang said on Friday that China has "indisputable sovereignty"
over the reef and adjacent waters and urged Vietnam to "refrain
from complicating the situation."
Vu Trong Khanh in Hanoi and Te-Ping Chen in Beijing contributed
to this article.
Write to Ben Otto at ben.otto@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 09, 2016 10:05 ET (15:05 GMT)
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