Japan's 20-Year Government Bond Yields Hover Near Zero
June 28 2016 - 3:00AM
Dow Jones News
TOKYO—The yield on Japan's 20-year government bond is nearing
negative territory for the first time, as a scramble for safety
after last week's Brexit vote further erodes what positive yields
remain in sovereign-bond markets.
The U.K.'s vote to leave the European Union has heightened
expectations the Bank of Japan will undertake additional monetary
easing, putting further pressure on JGB yields, said Masahiro
Ichikawa, a senior strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Asset
Management.
"We expect downward pressure on yields of JGBs with longer
maturities," Mr. Masahiro said, with the 20-year yield likely to
hit zero by the end of July.
The yield on the 20-year JGB touched a record low 0.04% on
Tuesday, while the benchmark 10-year yield hit a record minus
0.225%.
BOJ Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated Tuesday that the central
bank remains ready to take whatever action it deems necessary after
the Brexit vote roiled global markets. The BOJ's next policy
meeting is scheduled for July 28-29. Mr. Kuroda declined to comment
on speculation that the BOJ might call an earlier emergency
meeting.
The BOJ is widely expected to take action next month after
market turmoil sent the yen, considered a haven asset, to long-term
highs. A weaker yen had been a key element of Prime Minister Shinzo
Abe's economic program.
The mostly likely options for the BOJ, according to analysts,
are expanding its asset-buying program and pushing an interest rate
on some bank reserves further into negative territory, from minus
0.1% currently.
Growing concern that global central banks are running out of
options to stoke growth has driven a search for assets considered
safe and returning positive yields. With many shorter-duration
bonds already in negative territory, this has pushed yields on
longer-duration bonds sharply lower.
The rise of negative yielding JGBs helped send the total value
of global sovereign debt that now offers a negative yield to more
than $10 trillion last month, an increase of 5% from April,
according to Fitch Ratings.
Yields on benchmark 10-year bonds in Germany, Australia and
Switzerland have hit record lows recently, with Germany's 10-year
bund yield turning negative this month. In Japan, all government
bonds of 15 years and shorter durations already offer negative
yields.
The BOJ's massive purchases of JGBs—it now owns about a third of
all outstanding JGBs—has helped drive yields lower, as did the
central bank's introduction of negative interest rates earlier this
year.
If the BOJ undertakes additional easing next month and investors
remain risk averse, the yields on 30- and 40-year JGBs may reach
zero soon after the 20-year yield turns negative, Mr. Ichikawa
said.
Write to Hiroyuki Kachi at hiroyuki.kachi@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 28, 2016 02:45 ET (06:45 GMT)
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