By Jonathan Cheng
SEOUL -- Humanity has fallen to artificial intelligence in
checkers, chess, and, last month, Go, the complex ancient Chinese
board game.
But some of the world's biggest nerds are confident that
machines will meet their Waterloo on the pixelated battlefields of
the computer strategy game StarCraft.
A key reason: Unlike machines, humans are good at lying.
StarCraft, created in 1998, is one of the world's most popular
computer game franchises. It pits three races against one another:
the humanlike Terrans, the slimy insectoid Zerg and a mystical race
with psionic powers called the Protoss.
Players pick a race and then use its units -- spacecraft with
cloaking abilities or little creatures that can burrow in the soil,
for example -- to exterminate their opponents and capture their
headquarters. Unlike chess or Go, players don't take turns making
their moves. Everything happens at once.
The intricacies of the game and the endless permutations of
possible strategies have made StarCraft, in the minds of many
artificial intelligence experts, the obvious next target for
man-machine contests.
Demis Hassabis, creator of the artificial-intelligence program
that defeated Go grandmaster Lee Se-dol in the recent closely
watched match in Seoul, has long eyed StarCraft as a possible
challenge for his AI company DeepMind, which Alphabet Inc.'s Google
acquired two years ago.
In 2011, Mr. Hassabis called StarCraft "the next step up" from
abstract games like Go, and last month named it as a potential next
target for his AI researchers, which include a former pro StarCraft
gamer.
Michael Morhaime, co-founder and president of StarCraft creator
Blizzard Entertainment, says he has reached out to Google after the
man-machine Go match, but Google says it is still weighing a number
of possible platforms for its AI tests.
"We would love to be a milestone on that advance of artificial
intelligence, from chess to Go and then us," Mr. Morhaime said.
Facebook Inc. and Microsoft Corp. also have employees working on
StarCraft AI projects, but both companies say they are currently
small-scale ventures. Microsoft says it is also working on using AI
to crack the videogame Minecraft and a variation of Texas Hold 'em
Poker. Facebook is working on a Go AI program.
In addition to its complexity, the most appealing aspect of
StarCraft for AI developers is the element of uncertainty: Unlike
games like chess and Go where both players can see the entire board
at once, StarCraft players can't. Players must send out units to
explore the map and locate their opponent.
The lack of visibility means that computers can't simply
calculate all the possible moves their opponent might make, and
elevates bluffing as a key strategy employed by the world's top
StarCraft pros.
An advanced human player might, for example, feign weakness on
one side of the playing field while mustering a pack of mutalisks
-- fire-breathing dragon-like creatures -- on the other side of the
board.
"Giving false information or false cues is a very advanced
strategy, so it would be amazing to see a computer try to do that,"
says Mr. Morhaime, the Blizzard co-founder.
Eugene Kim, a 22-year-old professional StarCraft gamer in South
Korea considered the world's top human player, says bluffing is a
critical skill to succeed at the top levels of the game.
Mr. Kim is skeptical that AI is anywhere near challenging
mankind. "In order for a computer to win, it needs to learn how to
lie," he says.
Cho Man-soo, secretary-general of the Korea e-Sports
Association, describes StarCraft as "all about bluffing."
"It's going to be hard for AI to bluff or to trick a human
player," he says.
Some believe machines will eventually prevail, once they are
programmed to figure out their version of lying.
What humans call bluffing, the computer simply considers another
possible strategy among many, says University of Alberta computer
scientist David Churchill.
"When the AI finds that the only way to win is to show strength,
it will do that," Mr. Churchill says. "If you want to call that
bluffing, then the AI is capable of bluffing, but there's no
machismo behind it."
Mr. Churchill has been running an annual StarCraft AI challenge
for the past five years. The competition pits AI programs developed
by different teams of Ph.D.s against one another to sharpen their
skills, before taking on top-ranked human players
So far, it hasn't even been close. As it turns out, the AI isn't
quite as good as humans at executing time-tested maneuvers like the
mutalisk rush (dispatching a flock of the flying dragon-like
creatures at enemy headquarters) or dark templar drops (using a
flying shuttle to deposit a cloaked warp-blade-armed warrior near
enemy worker drones).
Other AI developers are still far from the point where their
programs might be able to trick a human opponent. For now, some
programmers are still trying to work out more basic kinks, like one
in which units appear to dance back and forth on the map as the
algorithm struggles to stick to one coherent strategy.
Few know StarCraft as deeply as South Koreans, where the game
has been dubbed the national sport because of its popularity.
StarCraft and other competitive computer games have been recognized
as sports by the country's national Olympic committee.
Young pro gamers are feted like rock stars, with devoted
fanbases and endorsement deals. Cable-TV channels broadcast games
between top-ranked StarCraft masters, while tournaments can fill
arenas with screaming fans and live commentators.
Using a mouse and keyboard, the world's top players can issue
500 or more commands a minute. In last year's global StarCraft
tournament, held in Anaheim, Calif., 15 of the 16 quarterfinalists
were from South Korea.
But the humans' reign at StarCraft is threatened by the
machines, Mr. Churchill says.
"In the past we have seen the human world champions of checkers,
chess, and Go say that they will not be defeated by computers, and
each time they were wrong," he says. "It would be foolish to assume
that StarCraft, even though it is a much more complex game, is any
different."
--Min Sun Lee contributed to this article.
Write to Jonathan Cheng at jonathan.cheng@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 22, 2016 13:13 ET (17:13 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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