ROLLE, Switzerland,
Dec. 8, 2016 /PRNewswire/
-- Honeywell's (NYSE: HON) Transportation Systems Forecast
sees automakers continuing to adopt turbocharging technology to the
tune of 48 percent of annual global sales by 2021, up 9 percentage
points from 2016. This annual sales estimate, combining both
passenger and commercial vehicles, would add more than 232 million
turbocharged vehicles globally between 2017 and 2021 — an increase
of 35 percent from today.
"As emission regulations continue to tighten, mature automotive
markets like the United States and
high-growth regions like China and
India are turning to turbochargers
to help provide cleaner transportation. This is creating what we
refer to as the 'Golden Age of Turbo,'" said Olivier Rabiller,
Honeywell Transportation Systems president and CEO. "With the
ability to improve emissions and fuel economy by 20 to 40 percent
in gas and diesel engines, turbocharging technology is a smart
choice for helping automakers meet tougher global emissions
standards without sacrificing performance."
This year's forecast recognizes an industry trend for slightly
bigger engine sizes in Europe and
China as automakers adapt
powertrain strategies to tackle updated emissions regulations
developed for real-world driving conditions. In these regions, a
typical powertrain is a three- or four-cylinder engine with a
displacement size between 1.2 liters and 1.7 liters. By rightsizing
engines with available technologies, automakers are able to
continue applying the benefits of smaller turbocharged engines
while fine-tuning powertrain systems to further optimize fuel
economy, emissions and performance.
In addition, Honeywell's forecast calls for electric boosting
products to help support compliance with more stringent national
environmental standards. To this end, it is anticipated that the
industry will begin moving from 12-volt battery systems to 48-volt
systems. This change opens the door for a cost-effective electric
boosting technology solution featuring e-chargers and e-turbos to
help improve efficiency and performance of the internal combustion
engine in a mild hybrid vehicle. E-boosting products can
dramatically improve engine responsiveness and also provide better
fuel economy. Specific to diesel, it also has the potential to
significantly reduce pollutant emissions, like mononitrogen oxide
(NOx), and help meet more stringent regulations including the
Real-Driving Emissions test in Europe.
Electrics and hybrids are expected to grow from a total of 3
million vehicles in 2016 to a total of 16 million by 2021. Within
the electrified category, mild hybrids are expected to account for
46 percent of the mix; full hybrids will account for 40 percent;
and pure electric vehicles will be most of the remaining 14
percent. Honeywell estimates 70 percent of all mild hybrid vehicles
will have a turbo or multiple turbo systems (mechanical and
electric). In addition, Honeywell has drawn upon its engineering
competencies in the automotive and aerospace industries to create a
new two-stage electrical compressor used by Honda Motor Co. for its
hydrogen-powered Clarity Fuel Cell vehicle.
More Key Global Findings
- The projected increase in annual sales of vehicles with a turbo
from 38 million today to 52 million in 2021 equates to a 35 percent
increase, or 6 percent CAGR (compounded annual growth rate)
compared with a 2 percent CAGR for all global industry
sales.
- The global turbo business is expected to reach almost
$12 billion in industry sales
in 2021.
- Globally, diesel engines will retain a significant share of
global light vehicle sales at nearly 18 percent, due to their
lower fuel consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Diesel
engines also provide increased torque, range and driving pleasure
especially for pickup trucks, SUVs and light commercial vehicles,
which remain extremely popular.
- Vehicle complexity will increase with the onboarding of new
technology, making automotive software such as Honeywell's
OnRAMP Design Suite a key enabler for meeting more stringent
emission regulations. The automotive industry currently spends
between $2 billion and $4 billion a
year just on the development and calibration of powertrain controls
to manage a vehicle's engine and after-treatment functions such as
diagnostics. OnRAMP can reduce development time from months to days
as well as help optimize engine controls of subsystems designed to
reduce CO2 and other emissions.
Regional Highlights
- In North America, more
engine downsizing is expected. The current average engine size is a
3.0-liter six-cylinder. As the region continues to shift from
larger naturally aspirated engines to smaller turbocharged ones,
Honeywell is working to provide more twin-scroll turbo technology
support, which extracts more energy from four-cylinder exhaust
profiles. Honeywell expects light vehicle sales of turbocharged
vehicles to grow 11 points to 33 percent of regional sales or more
than 7 million vehicles by 2021. Turbocharged diesel engines will
continue to be in demand on light-duty trucks.
- Europe will easily
remain the global leader with an overall turbo penetration of 74
percent. The mix between gasoline and diesel will shift slightly as
gas turbo penetration in light vehicle sales grows 9 points to 52
percent in 2021. Additional technology benefits are needed as many
automakers still have a gap of 15 to 30 g/km before meeting the
2021 target of 95 g/km.
- In China, emissions
regulations are scheduled to become the toughest in the world.
These new rules will favor the development of gasoline turbocharged
engines and wider adoption of electrification. China will be the highest growth market for
turbocharged light vehicles with an 16 point increase in
penetration of total sales. This equates to an expected 80 percent
increase in the number of annual sales in 2021 at more than 13.5
million versus 7.5 million in 2016. Honeywell is supporting this
massive turbo adoption in China
especially in the three-cylinder engine segment using its
third-generation gas technology. This features a wastegate with a
Honeywell-developed mono-block arm and valve, reducing noise by 5
to 10 decibels and improving fuel economy by up to 0.5 percent with
better controllability and 50 percent less wear due to repetitive
motion within the turbo housing.
- Other regions including Japan, Korea, India and South
America will see on average a 7 percent growth in
turbocharging volume driven by the expected recovery of
South America and Southeast Asia economies, and more stringent
regulations including India's
Bharat Stage 6 and Brazil's
Inovar-Auto and future programs.
Additional Quotes
"Honeywell continues to develop turbo innovations that enable
automakers to push the limits of powertrain development. As
turbocharging has grown in the past 10 years from being a largely
commercial vehicle and diesel technology in Europe to a global technology benefitting
gasoline engines, automakers are gaining valuable experience
influencing current and future powertrain designs.
"We're excited at Honeywell to help our customers with this next
phase of development as powertrain optimization has led to even
more aggressive engine developments using alternative engine
combustion cycles, electrification, multistage boosting, advanced
compressors for hydrogen fuel cells and greater use of engine
management software such as Honeywell OnRAMP to provide greater
fuel economy and performance."
— Craig Balis,
Honeywell Transportation Systems Chief Technology Officer
"An example of the rightsizing we are seeing in Europe would be the 2.0-liter engine of five
to seven years ago that became a downsized 1.0-liter with a
turbocharger. Going forward, that same engine may evolve to a
1.2-liter to 1.5-liter turbocharged engine to help retain the fuel
economy and emission benefits of a smaller engine than the
original, and still account for real-world driving habits of
consumers while meeting regulatory targets."
— Pierre
Barthelet, Honeywell Transportation Systems Chief Marketing
Officer
Supporting Resources
- See the 2016 Transportation Systems Forecast Infographic
- Read more about Honeywell Transportation Systems
- Follow @Honeywell_Turbo on Twitter
Methodology
Honeywell's annual Transportation Systems industry forecast
looks at the next five years of transportation technology trends
including turbo penetration as well as the growing use of
automotive software and electric boosting products among
anticipated global vehicle sales.
Honeywell's forecast methodology is based on multiple sources
including, but not limited to, macroeconomic analyses, original
equipment manufacturers' production and development plans shared
with the company, and expert deliberations from automotive
industry. The survey sample is representative of the entire
industry in terms of geography, operation and fleet composition.
This comprehensive approach provides Honeywell with unique insights
into Automotive OEM sentiments, preferences and concerns, and
provides considerable insight into product development needs and
opportunities.
About Honeywell
Honeywell Aerospace products and services are found on virtually
every commercial, defense and space aircraft, and its turbochargers
are used by nearly every automaker and truck manufacturer around
the world. The Aerospace business unit develops innovative
solutions for more fuel-efficient automobiles and airplanes, more
direct and on-time flights, safer flying and runway traffic, along
with aircraft engines, cockpit and cabin electronics, wireless
connectivity services, logistics, and more. The business delivers
safer, faster, and more efficient and comfortable
transportation-related experiences worldwide. For more information,
visit www.honeywell.com or follow us at @Honeywell_Aero and
@Honeywell_Turbo.
Honeywell plays a key role in the global adoption of turbo
technology and each year launches an average of 100 new turbo
applications. With more than 500 programs in its product
development pipeline, Honeywell works with nearly every major
global vehicle manufacturer. Its advanced turbo technologies cover
the broadest range of engine applications, from micro-cars and
light automobiles to construction vehicles and the racing
circuit.
Honeywell (www.honeywell.com) is a Fortune 100 diversified
technology and manufacturing leader, serving customers worldwide
with aerospace products and services; control technologies for
buildings, homes, and industry; turbochargers; and performance
materials. For more news and information on Honeywell, please visit
www.honeywell.com/newsroom.
Honeywell and the Honeywell logo are the exclusive properties of
Honeywell, are registered with the U.S. Patent and Trademark
Office, and may be registered or pending registration in other
countries. All other Honeywell product names, technology names,
trademarks, service marks, and logos may be registered or pending
registration in the U.S. or in other countries. All other
trademarks or registered trademarks are the property of their
respective owners. Copyright 2016 Honeywell.
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SOURCE Honeywell Transportation Systems