Key Excerpts: Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo on the Economy, Inflation, Interest Rates
October 13 2015 - 5:20PM
Dow Jones News
By Ben Leubsdorf
Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo told CNBC on Tuesday the
Fed should wait for "tangible evidence" of a pickup in U.S.
inflation, and that short-term interest rates should remain pinned
near zero into 2016.
Below are excerpts of Mr. Tarullo's remarks on the economic
outlook and monetary policy from his televised interview with
CNBC.
On the U.S. economy:
"We don't have an enormous amount of momentum, even though we've
made a fair amount of progress."
On the Fed's dual goals of maximum employment and stable
prices:
"There's no question that we've made a lot of progress in the
labor market. But I don't think anybody knows how much more
progress could be made in a noninflationary fashion....On
inflation, for most of the time since the crisis and the recession,
we have been running below the [Federal Open Market Committee's]
stated 2% target and we're currently in a globally disinflationary
environment with the impact of a stronger dollar...and lower energy
prices playing their part."
On the Phillips curve, a theory that reduced slack in the labor
market generates higher wage and price growth:
"There is a good bit of uncertainty right now. As you know,
there's the debate between whether we've got some extended cyclical
effect or whether there's some secular things going on in the
economy that are changing growth potential and changing optimal
policy. I don't think the FOMC is going to be able to disentangle
that before we have to make decisions. But I do think, under these
circumstances, it's probably wise not to be counting so much on
past correlations--things like the Phillips curve, which really
haven't been operating very effectively for 10 years now--and
instead to really look for some tangible evidence of, for example,
pickups in wages or inflation that allow us to make informed
decisions based on the evidence."
On forces holding down U.S. inflation:
"There is a case to be made for the proposition that one should
look through things like the dollar and energy prices. I'd just
point out, though--and that may well prove right, but I would point
out that, as I said a moment ago, it's been some years now since
inflation has approached the FOMC's target. There have been a
series of factors which, for some period of time, have kept
inflation down, and that's why my own perspective is that one
should watch to see some tangible evidence that allows one to
develop that reasonable confidence that inflation will return to
target."
On whether the Fed should raise interest rates this year:
"Based on what I just said, and based also on what one might
call a risk-management approach of being concerned that a premature
rise might be harder to deal with than waiting a little bit longer,
right now my expectation is--given where I think the economy would
go--I wouldn't expect it would be appropriate to raise rates [this
year]. But I want to hasten to add that that is an outlook that
changes based on developments in the economy and our being
forward-looking about it. I do think there's been too much focus on
a particular meeting and a particular date and not enough on the
overall conditions of the economy."
Write to Ben Leubsdorf at ben.leubsdorf@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
October 13, 2015 17:05 ET (21:05 GMT)
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