By Paul Hannon 

France's economy slowed following the Nov. 13 terror attacks in Paris and a subsequent tightening of security around the country, but it continued to grow, according to surveys released Monday.

However, that slowdown in the eurozone's second-largest member wasn't sharp enough to retard the currency area as a whole, which recorded its strongest expansion in more than four years.

That suggests the eurozone economy has gathered fresh momentum after its third-quarter slowdown, although much will depend on how long the sense of heightened insecurity that has followed the Paris attacks persists, and how weakened business and consumer confidence will be as a consequence. Tighter controls on movement across Europe's borders could slow trade, while tourists may stay away from some of the world's most visited cities.

For now, however, the economic impact of the attacks seems to have been slight, in line with experience, including the bombings in London in 2005 and Madrid in 2004.

Speaking to the Kent Messenger, a newspaper in the southeast of England with strong trade ties to France, a former vice chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve said that while terror attacks increase uncertainty, they don't inflict lasting economic damage.

"Unfortunately these things have happened periodically but for the most part they have left a small imprint on the economy," said Donald Kohn, who now serves on the Bank of England's Financial Policy Committee. "Economies have proven resilient to these terrible threats."

Despite the pickup in activity, the surveys showed that businesses continued to cut their prices, making it more difficult for the European Central Bank to boost the annual rate of inflation to its target of just under 2% from 0.1% in October.

Data firm Markit said the headline measure of activity, based on surveys of 5,000 companies around the eurozone, and known as the composite purchasing managers index, rose to 54.4 in November from 53.9 in October, its highest level since May 2011. A reading above 50 indicates that activity increased, while a reading below that level shows that activity decreased.

The survey suggests that growth may accelerate further in coming months, since new orders were also at their highest since mid-2011, along with new hiring.

But despite the resilience shown by eurozone economies in the face of the terror attacks and a weakening of demand for the currency area's exports from China and some other large developing economies, economists continue to expect the ECB to provide more stimulus when its governing council meets on Dec. 3.

"With recent comments from ECB chief Mario Draghi highlighting how the central bank remains disappointed with the strength of the upturn at this stage of the recovery, November's slightly improved PMI reading will no doubt do little to dissuade policy makers that more needs to be done at their December meeting to ensure stronger and more sustainable growth," said Chris Williamson, Markit's chief economist.

The surveys are the first measure of French economic activity released since the attacks on Paris, and 57% of responses from purchasing managers at manufacturers and service providers came in the days after the assaults at the Bataclan concert hall and other locations claimed 130 lives in the French capital. Markit said responses were received between Nov. 12 and Nov. 20.

"Some hotels & restaurants specifically mentioned the Paris attacks as a factor leading to lower activity but none outside that sector," said Jack Kennedy, an economist at Markit.

France's composite PMI fell to 51.3 from 52.6 in October.

Other details recorded by the French surveys point to continued growth in the months ahead, with new orders picking up. However, businesses cut some jobs, a sign they aren't confident that demand will continue to rise.

The French economy returned to growth in the three months to September, having stagnated in the three months to June. But it has struggled to recover from the 2008 financial crisis and the eurozone debt crisis that followed, with the unemployment rate still in double digits.

Mr. Kennedy said the PMIs for October and November indicate the French economy is on course to grow at the same 0.3% rate in the final quarter as in the three months to September.

Write to Paul Hannon at paul.hannon@wsj.com

 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

November 23, 2015 09:26 ET (14:26 GMT)

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