By Mike Spector and Jack Nicas
Last October, Tesla Motors Inc. Chief Executive Elon Musk
heralded the arrival of the company's autonomous-driving
technology, inviting owners of its electric cars to download
software that let the autos operate themselves under certain
conditions.
His message to owners on its website: "Your Autopilot has
arrived."
Auto-safety regulators, meanwhile, were relatively silent on the
technology even though many experts viewed Tesla's program as the
most aggressive self-driving system on U.S. roads. The National
Highway Traffic Safety Administration, embroiled in managing a
sharp increase in safety recalls, including tens of millions of
rupture-prone air bags, lacks authority to approve or disapprove of
the advanced technology or meaningfully slow its deployment.
Instead, car-safety regulators were forced to wait until a major
mishap before significantly addressing Tesla's Autopilot system.
The May 7 fatal crash in Florida that killed 40-year-old Joshua
Brown when his Tesla Model S drove under the trailer of an 18-wheel
semi truck turning in front of the car offers NHTSA officials their
first significant chance to flex regulatory muscle.
Seven weeks later, NHTSA opened an initial investigation that,
depending on the findings, could result in a recall of 25,000 Tesla
vehicles and pressure to change the software. The probe will rely
on a Florida Highway Patrol investigation and other analysis, and
could take several more months to complete. Until then, regulators
will continue to leave it up to Tesla and the owners of thousands
of its sedans and sport-utility vehicles to use Autopilot
responsibly.
NHTSA declined to comment on the Tesla investigation.
The gap between Tesla's deployment of Autopilot and meaningful
federal oversight lays bare NHTSA's limitations in policing
emerging safety technology. U.S. officials are virtually powerless
to stop auto makers from adopting such technologies unless they
clearly run afoul of existing regulations that address car steering
wheels, brakes and seat belts designed for human operators. Unlike
the Federal Aviation Administration, which requires exhaustive
certifications for most aircraft, auto regulators are often
reactive.
"NHTSA has no premarket regulatory authority," David Strickland,
a former agency head who now represents auto makers pursuing
driverless technologies at law firm Venable LLP, said on Friday.
"The only thing the agency can do is make a decision whether the
vehicle is noncompliant with the existing federal motor vehicle
safety standards."
NHTSA is readying new guidelines for autonomous-vehicle
developers, but they're expected to be suggestions rather than
rigid rules. The regulator aims to make recommendations for states
and other local governments to avoid conflicting patchworks of
rules in the U.S.
To protect drivers, Tesla offered disclosures and a three-step
warning system to keep occupants attentive even as the car drove
itself. The system received critical acclaim, with a Norwegian
publication finding Autopilot was far more effective at reliably
operating itself compared with Daimler AG's suite of similar
technologies on its Mercedes-Benz vehicles. A Daimler spokesman
said he wasn't familiar with the findings.
The Tesla system has a downside. By installing check-in
features, such as forcing drivers to touch the steering wheel
periodically, Tesla acknowledged motorists could be prone to a
false sense of security.
Tesla acknowledges the Model S Mr. Brown was in failed to
recognize the truck in front of him. The Autopilot -- which employs
cameras and other sensors -- treated the trailer much like a sign
suspended high above a highway, enabling the car to run directly
under an obstruction that sheared off the car's roof.
While many driverless-car advocates have been critical of Mr.
Musk's aggressive timetable for introducing Tesla's self-driving
technology, they now worry the fatal crash will provoke additional
regulatory oversight and slow deployment on U.S. roads of the
rapidly advancing technology.
"There will be repercussions" in regulations, said Dean
Pomerleau, a Carnegie Mellon University professor who has worked on
driverless cars for 25 years and led several NHTSA research
programs. "I think NHTSA is going to want Tesla to turn off
Autopilot at least until they learn more."
Regulators are preparing to release the guidelines for automated
vehicles in July, attempting to balance adoption of promising
technologies while ensuring they're safe. Companies developing
driverless cars -- including Alphabet Inc.'s Google and Tesla --
have expressed reservations about the regulatory oversight,
contending it could delay widespread deployment. But they support
general guidelines that aim to avoid conflicting rules when cars
drive themselves across state lines.
Even before Thursday's disclosure, people working on driverless
cars worried that Tesla's Autopilot was an accident waiting to
happen. "Anyone who has worked in this area realized that this was
inevitable," said Mr. Pomerleau, who said he sold his Tesla stock
when Autopilot was announced.
Tesla contends its system is safer than conventional
automobiles, noting the crash was the first fatality in over 130
million miles driven with Autopilot and that the feature "results
in a statistically significant improvement in safety when compared
to purely manual driving."
Tesla tweaked the system earlier this year after drivers posted
YouTube videos of themselves engaging in dangerous behaviors such
as a reading a newspaper while the Autopilot was engaged. It
stepped up its communication to drivers as well, underscoring the
dangers of zoning out while at the wheel.
"You can tell drivers to be alert at all times, but can you
presume that everyone who read the disclosure will do just that?"
Mr. Strickland said. He now advises a coalition of companies
working on fully autonomous self-driving cars, including Alphabet,
Ford Motor Co. and Uber Technologies Inc.
Some of those companies are far more cautious in their approach.
Alphabet has been testing autonomous technology for several years,
for instance, and consistently said it believes driverless cars
must be fully autonomous to meet its safety standards. The company
says semi-autonomous systems that require drivers to sometimes take
control of the car can be unsafe because drivers put too much trust
in the machine and can't retake control if needed.
Alphabet has asked NHTSA to weigh in on whether its cars can
omit steering wheels, and it is testing a prototype without pedals.
That vehicle has only a large green "Go" button and a red "Stop"
button. That sort of fully autonomous car is harder to design and
perfect, "but it's the right thing to do," Alphabet research-lab
chief Astro Teller said in a speech last year.
Alphabet and Tesla share this concern: regulatory oversight on
par with the FAA's command of airplanes will slow widespread
deployment of features designed to heighten vehicle safety. In an
auto industry prone to waiting until NHTSA forces auto makers to
add safety gear, such as traction control, Silicon Valley has been
particularly outspoken in the need to let companies lead the
way.
Karl Brauer, a senior analyst at data provider Kelley Blue Book,
said any path that waits until cars no longer need driver
intervention is going to be a long one. "Ultimately we may be
better off with cars without controls, but that future is pretty
far off," he said. Whereas Tesla is leveraging real customers to
improve its technology, Alphabet pays hundreds of people to test
drive its autonomous vehicles.
Brad Templeton, a former Alphabet driverless-car engineer who
now consults companies on the technology, said there is an argument
that Tesla's approach is for the greater good.
Driverless cars "are going to save lots of lives," he said. "And
letting customers test vehicles could advance the technology
faster."
Write to Mike Spector at mike.spector@wsj.com and Jack Nicas at
jack.nicas@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 01, 2016 19:15 ET (23:15 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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