Bull of the Day: Myriad Genetics (MYGN) - Bull of the Day
April 29 2014 - 3:22AM
Zacks
Make no mistake about
it, Biotech has been hot. More specifically, the
Biomedical/Genetics industry is in the top 32% of our Zacks
Industry Rank. The industry has 38 stocks that are Zacks Rank #1
(Strong Buy) or Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). Among the top ranked stocks in
this highly ranked industry is our Bull of the Day, Myriad Genetics
(MYGN).
Myriad is a Zacks Rank
#1 (Strong Buy) with earnings coming up after the close on May
6th. Myriad uses a gene-based medicine to develop
therapeutic and molecular diagnostic products. Think medicine that
is programmed specifically to your personal gene mix. That's what
the long term goal is of Myriad. MYGN hopes that gene-specific
medication will lead to more effective treatment of illness and
disease.
The more you think about
potential of these drugs the more excited you get about the stock.
But this company is much more than just the story. MYGN has the
numbers behind it as well. Not only has the company surprised
earnings to the upside four quarters in a row, it’s also had
substantial upside revisions over the last 90 days. Current year
consensus has risen from $1.98 to $2.21 and next year’s numbers
have risen from $1.71 to $1.92.
So the fundamental story
is there, the feel good story is there, now what about the
technical picture? I’m just as confident. Since late last year,
MYGN has been locked in an upward trajectory. The stock has had a
few pullbacks to support which served as temporary rest along the
lines of a longer term bull run. The first major resistance MYGN
ran into was just above the $38 level in late February and early
March. Following the resistance, MYGN pulled all the way back to
$32, below its 25 day moving average shifted by 5 days
(25x5).
For a few days it looked
as if Myriad had run out of gas. But in late March we caught a bid
on confirmed strength out an oversold stochastic coupled with a
bullish cross. The last run of strength took us all the way up to
$42 before a recent sell-off put us on the North side of
$38.
It’s this $38 level that
is most important for MYGN and the reason why I’m bullish on it
today. You have a few very positive technical developments. First,
$38 had been resistance in the past prior to being broken by the
gap up in early April. What was once a ceiling now becomes a floor
to support the stock. So you have a stock that has been higher,
pulled back, is still above support and above its
25x5.
One worry I have from a
technical aspect is that the slope of the 25x5 is essential zero
right now which lends itself to a range bound stock. Settling into
a range wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world as the top of the
range looks to be $42 for a stock in the $38 handle. Ten percent
upside potential without a breakout versus a downside at about $36
gives a good risk versus reward scenario. Earnings around the
corner are a wildcard and I’d avoid having unidirectional exposure
ahead of the report. Those looking to roll the dice on a breakout
can use options as MYGN is optionable.
MYRIAD GENETICS (MYGN): Free Stock Analysis Report
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