SAN JOSE, Calif., Feb. 4, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- Realtor.com®
today predicted a Denver Broncos win over the Carolina Panthers in
Super Bowl 50, which also would translate into good news for the
2016 housing market.
"Although there is no economically driven correlation between
the outcome of the Super Bowl and the housing market, we have found
a promising real estate predictor for the Super
Bowl that's more effective than a coin toss," said
Jonathan Smoke, chief economist
for realtor.com®, a leading destination of online real estate
services operated by News Corp [NASDAQ: NWS, NWSA]; [ASX: NWS,
NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc.
Realtor.com® leveraged the predictive power of Robert Stuvall's Super Bowl Stock Market
Predictor phenomenon in reverse. Instead of using the winner of the
Super Bowl to predict that year's stock market outcome,
realtor.com® relied on the January performance of the Dow Jones
Industrial Average to predict the outcome of the Super Bowl. Out of
the 49 games to date, this predictor has anticipated the outcome of
the Super Bowl 82 percent of the time.
This year, the market ended the month behind the line of
scrimmage – down 5.5 percent – indicating a win for the American
Football Conference team, the Denver Broncos. If the market had
gained yards in January, the National Football Conference team –
Carolina Panthers – would be expected to win the Super Bowl.
Realtor.com's® historical analysis also shows there is more than
just celebrating in Denver when the Broncos win the Super Bowl.
There is a strong correlation to the housing market.
Denver's past wins in the Super
Bowl – in 1998 and 1999 – were also strong years for housing. In
1998, home prices gained a touchdown of 6 percent based on the
Case-Shiller National Composite. Existing home sales showed a
strong offense of 13 percent based on data from National
Association of REALTORS®. Housing starts increased 9 percent based
on data from the Commerce Department, with single-family starts up
12 percent. In 1999, the housing market was also in a strong
scoring position – home prices gained 7 percent; existing home
sales grew 3 percent; starts increased 2 percent with single-family
starts up 3 percent.
When Denver loses the Super
Bowl, the housing market is more of a wild card. In 1978, housing
indicators had some strong drives, but turned over the ball in
1990. While the years 1987, 1988, and 2014 were a mixed bag
of flags and positive yards following a Denver loss.
Table 1: Denver Broncos Outcome in Super Bowl and Housing
Indicators
Year
|
Denver
Outcome
|
Key Housing
Indicators
|
1978
|
Loss
|
Home prices +14%.
Existing home sales
+9%. Housing starts +2%. Single-family
starts -2%.
|
1987
|
Loss
|
Home prices +9%.
Existing home sales
-1%. Housing starts -10%. Single-family
starts -3%.
|
1988
|
Loss
|
Home prices +7%.
Existing home sales
+2%. Housing starts -7%. Single-family
starts -3%.
|
1990
|
Loss
|
Home prices +7%.
Existing home sales
+13%. Housing starts -8%. Single-family
starts -4%.
|
1998
|
Win
|
Home prices +6%.
Existing home sales
+13%. Housing starts +9%. Single-family
starts +12%.
|
1999
|
Win
|
Home prices +7%.
Existing home sales
grew 3%. Starts increased 2%. Single-family
starts up 3%.
|
2014
|
Loss
|
Home prices +7%.
Existing home sales
-3%. Housing starts +8%. Single-family
starts +5%.
|
About Move, Inc. and realtor.com®
Move, Inc. operates the realtor.com® website and mobile
experiences, which provide buyers, sellers and renters of homes
with the information, tools and professional expertise they need to
discover and create their perfect home. News Corp [NASDAQ: NWS,
NWSA]; [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] acquired Move in November 2014, and realtor.com® quickly
established itself as the fastest growing online real estate
service provider as measured by comScore.
As the official website of the National Association of
REALTORS®, consumers know they can look to realtor.com® for
the most comprehensive and accurate information anytime,
anywhere. With relationships with nearly 800 multiple listing
services (MLS), realtor.com® has more than 3 million for-sale
listings, which account for more than 97 percent of all MLS-listed
for-sale properties. More than 90 percent of the listings are
updated every 15 minutes. Move's network of websites provides
consumers a wealth of innovative tools,
including Doorsteps®, Moving.com™,
SeniorHousingNetSM and others. Move supports real
estate professionals by providing many services to grow their
businesses in an increasing digital, on-demand world,
including ListHub™, the nation's leading listing syndicator
and centralized intelligence platform for the real estate
industry; TigerLead®; Top Producer® Systems;
and FiveStreetSM and Reesio as well
as many free services.
Forward-Looking Statements
This document contains certain "forward-looking statements"
within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act
of 1995. These statements are based on management's views and
assumptions regarding future events and business performance as of
the time the statements are made. Actual results may differ
materially from these expectations due to changes in global
economic, business, competitive market and regulatory and other
factors. More detailed information about these and other factors
that could affect future results is contained in News Corp's
filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The
"forward-looking statements" included in this document are made
only as of the date of this document and we do not have any
obligation to publicly update any "forward-looking statements" to
reflect subsequent events or circumstances, except as required by
law.
Media Contact: Lexie
Puckett, realtor.com, 805-557-3151
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SOURCE realtor.com