downdraft
6 days ago
I noticed that, yet shares seems to be getting moved around, 50-100 million shares per month. At least Barchart has been slowly warming up to us all year long. If the taproom starts raking in extra cash between now and the end of the summer, I wouldn't be surprised to see another step up the ladder in terms of business growth, in some way, in the next 6 months. I like steady long term growth.
Barchart Opinion
downdraft
2 weeks ago
9 days until the World Beer Cup competition. I'm not counting anything out. They didn't win anything last year but now at least they are known to the organizers of the competition.
One thing all these beer competitions seem to have in common is that one way another, if a brewery has a good product, the competitions are designed in a way to reward as many competitors as possible, growing the overall industry. Case is point with that California state fair competition last year that had, I think, 158 categories! That means that out of the 1,000 or so microbreweries, in just one season, maybe 15% of them could be showcasing gold place winners for their particular beer in their microbrewery, and maybe another 15% got second place, meaning hundreds of microbreweries could have had a significant win.
So with a big competition, even just getting a 2nd place win from a world renown competition could significantly help drive beer sales. I'll be watching the awards just in case. One of these days a catalyst should move this stock in a big way. I'm in no hurry on this one as I think it's a long term winner regardless.
downdraft
3 weeks ago
Here's a link to the page that has a link to the live stream of the World Beer Cup awards on April 24th. While I don't expect our mighty beer startup to get an award, it's not impossible. It's just that the odds of getting an award go up as the company produces a larger variety of beer, allowing them to enter more beers into more categories, especially when you're up against hundreds of beers per category!
But just in case, if I get a quick runner, I won't be able to resist buying more shares before the ceremony. I certainly didn't expect BRBL to win that gold medal award in California so quickly, so anything goes, and a WBC award could give the brewery nationwide exposure and beer demand!
World Beer Cup award ceremony live stream - April 24th.
downdraft
3 weeks ago
Next big potential catalyst is two weeks away when the World Beer Cup awards are announced. I believe there is a live stream for the awards. I'll post it if I find the link again. I give us about a 10% chance of getting an award, simply because the competition is fierce.
After that, the 1st quarter filings in May will be very revealing about revenues via the new distributor. Those numbers were not in the annual filing as the new distribution only started in January. This filing alone should give us a great idea of how big 2025 sales revenue could be.
We still have a long way to go but by the end of next year, only 21 months from now, I believe we'll see light at the end of the tunnel for very strong, long-term growth, IMO.
downdraft
3 weeks ago
Sweet! Did a quick glance. They still have a long way to go financially, as expected, like tons of convertible debt in default. However, last year was key for me as insiders converted preferred shares to a boatload (around 3 billion shares) of common stock.
Plus, promissory note holders from last year got some more preferred shares on loans that were due. Plus I saw another new $150,000 promissory note issued in December. Lots of willing players are taking convertible preferred shares which mean they're on board for the long haul, IMO.
Overall sales were slightly higher than expected and they mentioned the new distributor could lead to many more accounts!
Tap room did over $70k in sales in their first partial month; I assume that means they did a fair amount of membership sales at the outset. Can't wait to see 1st quarter sales as a result of the new beer distributor. That should tell us a lot about that side of the business. Should see that report in just over a month from now.
No signs of anything about a Phase II taproom or brewery but maybe the 1st Quarter filing will shed more light.
All in all, still stoked, for the long haul of course. It simply takes a lot of time to get a large brewery off the ground. I can easily give them another 2 years before they solidify their financial situation. I'll just slowly load along the way.
downdraft
1 month ago
I hope these prices to stay right here for now as I'm only accumulating with profits from other plays. Still managing to get several million more shares each month.
My revenue estimates for last year are around $425,000. For 2024, maybe 3 or 4 times that with the new beer distributor and the taproom, so I'll guess $1.2 - $1.5 million for annual revenue this year. In 2025, I hope to see that triple that again ($3.6-$4.5 million; just guessing), depending upon if they get distribution into central California, and/or open another restaurant/tap room in Grass Valley.
So while that's not a ton of revenue yet through next year, it's still significant and they should be profitable enough within the next year to really allow them to scale much faster. The faster they can produce beer, the faster they can open up more distribution in California and then investors should be able to see a clear path to tens of million in annual revenues. That would get investors on board.
Like we've seen, for now, having money tied up here just means not having money for other plays. But I have full confidence that a long term play here will reap massive rewards if you have a big enough stake!
An upside surprise that would get me to scale in quicker is if they announce a new taproom/restaurant in Grass Valley (not out of the question), or announce the construction phase of the Phase II brewery (not just the taproom/restaurant), or as a long shot....
....Next month is the annual World Beer Cup competition, with results near the end of the month. Over time, as BrewBilt is able to enter more and more beers, into more and more categories, into the competition, the odds further improve that one of these years they might get one of those awards. Competition is fierce, however, with so many microbreweries entering the competition. But maybe one of these years they'll get lucky. That kind of award would get me to sell other stocks and quickly put the cash in here. So, I'll check every April to see the results.
Just my opinion; not investment advice.