dinogreeves
2 days ago
One valuable lesson I learned being in this arena, news comes when you least expect it. Now given that Delfin is tied to a lot of red tape crap, but this is also self inflicted missteps that they took, maybe because as Jab once said, the Golar boys are field officers, nothing more, nothing less. Waiting for the election to be over next year to say a word? Big mistake, huge mistake, if it doesn't work the way they anticipate, which most of us also anticipate that it would be in favor of us all the way around. What if it doesn't? Delfin packs up their bags and says adios until the next election or simply says we are done? Delfin merges here, it's not a few dollars by a long shot. There was one letter that I read to DOE, where one person indicated TGLO is not viable for merger because of illiquidity, that person is amongst us, that person told the World in a obscure way that TGLO is the vehicle that Delfin will use but they also tried to send negative twist to it too, so I ask, MARAD, DOE and all the senators that have been working with this project already know TGLO and mind you, even after that letter that mentions Delfin and TGLO in one sentence that the possibilities are there for a merger, not even after the letter, Delfin came out to deny the rumors even to dispute the letter. The volume will tell the story how close we are, between Tellurian investors and much of the regulators already know about TGLO, remember MARAD also wants to know how the financing is going to be arranged besides all the other mumbo jumbo environment assessment and if Delfin can prove they can do this export responsibly, MARAD also indicated at the bottom of the letter that they look forward with working with Delfin. I am confident they are working behind the scenes to get this to the finish line before the election. I wouldn't bet everything on the outcome of the elections, it will be a stupid move. Just let it be.
dinogreeves
2 days ago
No one stock is immune to a big drop, not even the best breed or hyped up stocks, I saw back in 2005, Apple dropped from 80 dollars to 5 dollars during the financial crisis, 3-4 forward splits before. This is all about timing the market, my son's best friend'd grand parents bought 3000 shares of Apple back for their grandson in 2005.
Mr. C
2 weeks ago
This coming from someone who said the app just needed to have the answers redone like it was homework and here we are 3 months later with nothing.
Even if the red tape is reduced with a new admin, it will not be eliminated and there will be a process of implementing new standards, but there will still be a process of approval that needs to be gone through.
Will it be reduced? Yes, like it was. Will it be nothing? No, like it was also.
There will still be an approval process. My point is at this late stage in the game they might as well wait because if they get it done now or later this will still probably not happen until into 2025 and all balance out to be the same anyways, but if they wait for a new admin they remove the risk of maybe getting an early judgement and final screw from MARAD and the current admin.
I would rather wait at this point, because timewise it'll likely be the same (or maybe less) with a new admin and with less risk of being rejected by the current one
Mr. C
2 weeks ago
They’ve been putting out expectations for a long time now about when it’s starting.
Delfin probably can’t wait longer than that though. Depending on constrictions with slot yard space and contract delivery timelines, they will likely have to proceed on a limited FID construction before MARAD replies.
I def don’t expect a quick turnaround from MARAD, especially if the app takes another month/two or even longer.
They still have to go through all of the public and lateral agency reviews that are required for a new application.
The company saying they are confident they can clear up MARAD by end of year in their DOE filing was the same confidence they had when they thought they could clear it up over the past two years prior, so I wouldn’t trust that, since it is entirely dependent on an unfriendly government and the timelines just don’t work.
Odds are we get the ship building before we get MARAD, but since we are already in July and November/January are not far off, Delfin may be thinking it’s better to just wait on the application for a new admin because the timelines will likely be the same and they still risk a quick rejection from this current admin if they decide to play shady games before leaving office.
That’s not what they indicated recently with Dudley’s comments about clearing the MARAD and DOE issues up over the “next few months”, but when has he ever given a correct timeline?
Halfway through the year now, so might as well keep on waiting for everything to play out and for a friendly admin in my opinion (If the election goes the way it is looking).
Just a theory that they could be waiting and buying time for the politics to change, but never know. Likely just waiting for the environmental assessment to be complete by the consulting group, but a lot has changed recently this far into the year with the politics and LNG/Chevron decisions