UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20549
 
 
FORM 8-K
 
 
CURRENT REPORT
Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d)
of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934
Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): August 5, 2015
 
 
THE MOSAIC COMPANY
(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)

 

 
Delaware
 
001-32327
 
20-1026454
(State or other jurisdiction
of incorporation)
 
(Commission
File Number)
 
(IRS Employer
Identification No.)
3033 Campus Drive
Suite E490
Plymouth, Minnesota
 
55441
(Address of principal executive offices)
 
(Zip Code)
Registrant’s telephone number, including area code: (800) 918-8270
Not applicable
(Former Name or Former Address, if Changed Since Last Report)
 

 Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions (see General Instruction A.2. below):
 
¨
Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)
 
¨
Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)
 
¨
Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))
 
¨
Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

 




Item 7.01. Regulation FD Disclosure.

The following information is being “furnished” in accordance with General Instruction B.2. of Form 8-K and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing:

Furnished herewith as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 and incorporated by reference herein are copies of (i) a presentation entitled “The Mosaic Company - August 2015” and (ii) a presentation being made by The Mosaic Company on August 5, 2015, at the Piper Jaffray Technology-Enabled Industrials Symposium in Minneapolis, Minnesota, respectively.
Item 9.01. Financial Statements and Exhibits.
(d) Exhibits.
Reference is made to the Exhibit Index hereto with respect to the exhibits furnished herewith. The exhibits listed in the Exhibit Index hereto are being “furnished” in accordance with General Instruction B.2. of Form 8-K and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Exchange Act, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall they be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.


SIGNATURES
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
THE MOSAIC COMPANY
 
 
 
 
Date: August 4, 2015
 
 
 
By:
 
/s/ Mark J. Isaacson
 
 
 
 
Name:
 
Mark J. Isaacson
 
 
 
 
Title:
 
Vice President, General Counsel
 
 
 
 
 
 
and Corporate Secretary





EXHIBIT INDEX
Exhibit No.
  
Description
 
 
99.1
 
Presentation entitled “The Mosaic Company - August 2015”
99.2
  
Presentation being made by The Mosaic Company on August 5, 2015, at the Piper Jaffray Technology-Enabled Industrials Symposium in Minneapolis, Minnesota




The Mosaic Company August 2015 1

 
Click to edit Master title style 2 This document contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include, but are not limited to, statements about the Wa’ad Al Shamal Phosphate Company (also known as the Ma’aden joint venture), the acquisition and assumption of certain related liabilities of the Florida phosphate assets of CF Industries, Inc. (“CF”) and Mosaic’s ammonia supply agreements with CF; repurchases of stock; other proposed or pending future transactions or strategic plans and other statements about future financial and operating results. Such statements are based upon the current beliefs and expectations of The Mosaic Company’s management and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties include but are not limited to risks and uncertainties arising from the ability of the Ma’aden joint venture to obtain additional planned funding in acceptable amounts and upon acceptable terms, the timely development and commencement of operations of production facilities in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the future success of current plans for the Ma’aden joint venture and any future changes in those plans; difficulties with realization of the benefits of the long term ammonia supply agreements with CF, including the risk that the cost savings from the agreements may not be fully realized or that the price of natural gas or ammonia changes to a level at which the natural gas based pricing under one of these agreements becomes disadvantageous to Mosaic; customer defaults; the effects of Mosaic’s decisions to exit business operations or locations; the predictability and volatility of, and customer expectations about, agriculture, fertilizer, raw material, energy and transportation markets that are subject to competitive and other pressures and economic and credit market conditions; the level of inventories in the distribution channels for crop nutrients; the effect of future product innovations or development of new technologies on demand for our products; changes in foreign currency and exchange rates; international trade risks and other risks associated with Mosaic’s international operations and those of joint ventures in which Mosaic participates, including the risk that protests against natural resource companies in Peru extend to or impact the Miski Mayo mine; changes in government policy; changes in environmental and other governmental regulation, including expansion of the types and extent of water resources regulated under federal law, greenhouse gas regulation, implementation of numeric water quality standards for the discharge of nutrients into Florida waterways or efforts to reduce the flow of excess nutrients into the Mississippi River basin, the Gulf of Mexico or elsewhere; further developments in judicial or administrative proceedings, or complaints that Mosaic’s operations are adversely impacting nearby farms, business operations or properties; difficulties or delays in receiving, increased costs of or challenges to necessary governmental permits or approvals or increased financial assurance requirements; resolution of global tax audit activity; the effectiveness of Mosaic’s processes for managing its strategic priorities; adverse weather conditions affecting operations in Central Florida, the Mississippi River basin, the Gulf Coast of the United States or Canada, and including potential hurricanes, excess heat, cold, snow, rainfall or drought; actual costs of various items differing from management’s current estimates, including, among others, asset retirement, environmental remediation, reclamation or other environmental regulation, Canadian resources taxes and royalties, or the costs of the Ma’aden joint venture, its existing or future funding and Mosaic’s commitments in support of such funding; reduction of Mosaic’s available cash and liquidity, and increased leverage, due to its use of cash and/or available debt capacity to fund share repurchases, financial assurance requirements and strategic investments; brine inflows at Mosaic’s Esterhazy, Saskatchewan, potash mine or other potash shaft mines; other accidents and disruptions involving Mosaic’s operations, including potential mine fires, floods, explosions, seismic events or releases of hazardous or volatile chemicals; and risks associated with cyber security, including reputational loss, as well as other risks and uncertainties reported from time to time in The Mosaic Company’s reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Actual results may differ from those set forth in the forward-looking statements. Safe Harbor Statement

 
9.00 9.30 9.60 9.90 10.20 10.50 US$ BU New Crop Soybean Price Daily Close Nov '15 Contract Source: CME Expect Farm Economics to Stabilize 3  Probability of a third- in-a-row outsized crop is diminishing.  Grain and Oilseed prices recovered and stabilized.  El Niño still poses a threat.  No surprise: weather will determine final outcome. 3.50 3.70 3.90 4.10 4.30 4.50 4.70 US$ BU New Crop Corn Price Daily Close Dec '15 Contract Source: CME

 
Good Start to 2015 Brazil India China North America H1 4 2015  Normal spring season  High beginning inventories Key Points  Delayed demand  Real volatility  Credit program  Visible demand increase  Ample monsoon  Actively shipping against contract Source: Mosaic

 
North America: Expect Good Fall Season 2 5 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Plant Nutrient Affordability Plant Nutrient Price Index / Crop Price Index Affordability Metric Average Source: Weekly Price Publications, CME, USDA, AAPFCO, Mosaic

 
6 Brazil: Credit + Stable Soybean Prices = Strong H2 Soybean Prices Farm Credit History 94 116 133 128 19 20 24 60 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 BRL billion Market Interest Rate Subsidized Interest rate Subsidized Interest rate Official Interest Rate (SELIC) Soybean Prices Monthly Average of CBOT Daily Nearby Close Source: Brazil Ministry of Agriculture and Central Bank 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Real/Bu USD/Bu US$ Bu Brazilian Reais Bu

 
Yield Growth Required To Keep Up With Demand 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75 775 800 825 850 875 900 925 950 975 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 MT Ha Mil Ha Source: USDA and Mosaic World Harvested Area and Average Yield Actual Area Forecast Area Actual Yield Required Yield 1980-10 Yield Trend F F F F 7 And The Long-term Trend Is Up

 
Why Mosaic?

 
Visible Strategic Progress 2 9 $1.01 $1.08 $0.17 $0.21 $0.06 $0.16 $0.06 $0.16 $0.43 $0.00 $0.20 $0.40 $0.60 $0.80 $1.00 $1.20 $1.40 $1.60 $1.80 Q2 2013 P Volume K Cash Cost/mt SG&A Share Count P Price K Price All Other* Q2 2015 Q2 2013 EPS vs. Q2 2015 Benefit of Mosaic’s Strategic Initiatives: $0.60/share * Includes $0.03 per share positive impact of disclosed notable items in Q2 ‘2015.

 
Large and Low Cost Producer -- K3 Optionality Upside 10 Potash: Scale and Improving Cost Position Top 10 Potash Producers in 2014 Source: CRU and Mosaic Mosaic Sask 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 ($/Tonne) Million Tonnes 2014 MOP Industry Cost Curve FOB Port Brine Based on 2014 production K 2 O production based on MOP, SOP, and KMS production Source: Company reports, IFA, CRU, Fertecon and Mosaic

 
$129 $89 $- $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 MOP Cash Cost/Prodcution tonne Avg. MOP Selling Price/Sales tonne Selling Price minus Cash Costs Visible Strategic Progress $213 $191 Maintaining Profitability Despite Lower Pricing 11 Source: Mosaic $342 $280

 
Potash: Investing for Growth * Assumptions in Appendix. Subject to risks and uncertainties including those stated in the Safe Harbor Statement. As of March, 2015 and updated for Canadian Resource Taxes and Royalties in May of 2015. Source: Mosaic 12 $923 $800 $850 $900 $950 $1,000 $1,050 $1,100 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F Potash Gross Margin Impact $1,076 ($ in millions) Volume Growth +17% Opportunity to Reduce Brine Spending After 2018

 
Phosphates: Scale and Strong Cost Position Largest and Lowest Quartile Producer 13 Top 10 Phosphate Producers in 2014 Source: CRU and Mosaic Based on 2014 production Mosaic's P 2 O 5 production includes CF Industries' phosphate business P 2 O 5 production based on PACID and SSP production OCP P 2 O 5 Production split between finished phosphate product use vs. PACID sold as such Source: Company reports, IFA, CRU, Fertecon and Mosaic

 
Market Leadership Benefiting Margins 14 $115 $142 $436 $450 $- $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 $450 $500 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Cash Margin (GM + DD&A)/Tonne DAP Price (FOB plant) 1. Lower Input Costs 2. Higher Cash Margins $321 $308 Improving Profitability by Focusing on Margins Source: Mosaic

 
Phosphates: Investing for Growth 15 $800 $900 $1,000 $1,100 $1,200 $1,300 $1,400 $1,500 $1,600 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F Phosphate Gross Margin Impact $1,466 $937 ($ in millions) CF Industries Phosphates MicroEssentials® Ma’aden Raw Materials +56% * Assumptions in Appendix. Subject to risks and uncertainties including those stated in the Safe Harbor Statement. As of March, 2015 Source: Mosaic

 
Distribution Strength 16

 
International Distribution: Investing in Growth $147 $256 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 $220 $240 $260 $280 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F International Distribution Gross Margin ($ in millions) Incremental MicroEssentials® & Volume Growth ADM Distribution Tonnes +74% * Assumptions in Appendix. Subject to risks and uncertainties including those stated in the Safe Harbor Statement. As of March, 2015 Source: Mosaic 17

 
Capital Deployment 18

 
$47 per Share Capital Management Priorities 19 Expect to Continue to Generate Strong Cash Flow and Excess Cash Maintain Strong Financial Foundation Sustain Assets & Dividend Grow Business Return

 
$1.10 $0.0 $0.2 $0.4 $0.6 $0.8 $1.0 $1.2 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F A Track Record of Dividend Growth ($ per share) Dividend per Share 450% +10% Source: Mosaic 20

 
Meaningful Share Repurchases $1.2 $2.8 $0.6 -$0.2 $0.3 $0.8 $1.3 $1.8 $2.3 $2.8 $3.3 $3.8 $4.3 $4.8 2011 2014 2015 YTD  Completed $500 Million Accelerated  $1.0 Billion Authorization Remaining ($ in billions) + Source: Mosaic 21

 
22 Smart Capital Deployment Investment for Growth Shareholder Returns Capital Stewardship Source: Mosaic

 
Leverage to Cyclical Improvement Significant Free Cash Flow Leverage (After Dividends) * Assumptions in Appendix. Subject to risks and uncertainties including those stated in the Safe Harbor Statement. As of March, 2015 Source: Mosaic 23 $437 $617 $506 $1,025 $1,139 $814 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F Free Cash Flow Scenario: P&K Prices up $50 ($ in millions) 347%

 
Click to edit Master title style 24 • In this cyclical industry, the positive secular trends continue. • Long-term value creation is predicated on effective capital deployment. • Capital deployment near the trough of the cycle maximizes value creation: – Depressed investment values – Increasing leverage to the upcycle • For Mosaic, and for our investors, now is the right time to invest. Investment Thesis

 
Thank you 25

 
26 Appendix

 
27 Potash Supply and Demand

 
Market Update: North America 28 5.3 4.6 4.5 4.2 2014 2015 2014 2015F Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Million Tonnes KCl North America MOP Shipments 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.6 2014 2015 2014 2015F Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Million Tonnes North America DAP/MAP/ME/TSP Shipments Source: Mosaic Estimates

 
Market Update: China 2 29 3.9 3.8 4.2 5.3 2014 2015 2014 2015F Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Million Tonnes KCl China MOP Imports 2.4 4.7 5.7 4.3 2014 2015 2014 2015F Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Million Tonnes China DAP/MAP/TSP Exports Source: Mosaic Estimates

 
Market Update: India 2 30 1.6 1.8 2.7 3.2 2014 2015 2014 2015F Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Million Tonnes KCl India MOP Imports 1.0 3.0 2.8 2.8 2014 2015 2014 2015F Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Million Tonnes India DAP Imports Source: Mosaic Estimates

 
Market Update: Brazil 2 31 4.6 3.7 4.3 4.5 2014 2015 2014 2015F Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Million Tonnes KCl Brazil MOP Imports 2.7 2.2 3.2 2.6 2014 2015 2014 2015F Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Million Tonnes Brazil DAP/MAP/ME/TSP Imports Source: Mosaic Estimates

 
32 Phosphates:  Ma’aden JV contribution embedded in gross margin, actual reporting is as an equity investment under U.S. GAAP.  ADM business includes an incremental, 2 million tonnes of blended product plus synergies.  Raw material savings result of increased NH3 manufacturing from de-bottlenecking vs. 2014 average purchased NH3 cost, lower costs from sulfur melting flexibility, and CF Industries ammonia off-take of 725k tonnes, which assumes difference between 2014 pricing and CF contract pricing.  MicroEssentials® sales volume growth assumes 3.4 million tonnes in 2018 minus 2014 volumes multiplied by 2014 margin premium over DAP, not including incremental selling, general and administrative expenses.  Selling prices and raw material costs (other than those noted above) are considered flat to 2014.  Capacity increase based on 1.8 million tonnes from CF Industries phosphate acquisition. Potash:  Growing volumes assumes 10.5 million tonnes of sales, based on 11.9 million tonnes of total capacity, in 2018.  Assumptions updated for changes in Canadian Resource Taxes and Royalties for 2015 and 2016. Corporate:  Some cost savings occurred in calendar 2013 and 2014.  Additionally, assumes some of the corporate savings are embedded in costs of goods sold. Other:  Cost savings shown is net of 3% inflation.  Dividends per share are assumed to increase by $0.10 per share in 2015 and then $0.05 per share thereafter.  Dividends are calculated using projected 2015 shares outstanding of 364.2 million which assumes no additional share repurchases above current Board authorization.  Cash flow per share assumes a hypothetical repurchase of 2.5m shares in each quarter from 2015 to 2018. Appendix: Assumptions All scenarios assuming pricing no changes to pricing from 2014.

 
CY2014 Adjusted Cash Flow from Operations Reconciliation Cash flow from operations (GAAP) $2,294 Changes in working capital (300) Loss on write-down of Carlsbad (125) Unrealized loss on derivatives (35) Change in value of share repurchase agreement (60) Amortization of acquired inventory (49) Special equity incentive (15) (Gain) on assets sold and to be sold 16 Adjusted Cash flow from operations (Non-GAAP) $1,726 33 Appendix: Non-GAAP Reconciliation

 
Source: Mosaic 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F Cash Flow from Operations $1,726(a) $2,198 $2,325 $2,594 $2,633 Capex ($906) ($1,204) ($1,415) ($1,129) ($1,034) Dividends ($383) ($401) ($420) ($440) ($461) FCF Less Dividends $437 $593 $490 $1,025 $1,138 (a) adjusted, reconciled on prior page Tabular Representation of Data From Analyst Day 34

 
35 Global Phosphate Shipment Forecasts by Region (April 30, 2015) Million Tonnes DAP/MAP/TSP 2014R Feb Low 2015F Feb High 2015F April Low 2015F April High 2015F Comments China 21.5 21.8 22.1 21.8 22.2 Moderate phosphate demand growth is forecast this year due to high crop prices and profitable farm economics. High analysis products also are expected to continue to displace low analysis products. India 7.7 8.3 9.0 8.5 8.8 2015 range narrowed and point estimate raised. Import economics work and India has large phosphate import requirements due to profitable farm economics and depletion of channel inventories, especially at the retail level. Other Asia/Oceania 6.9 6.9 7.3 7.0 7.2 Flat to moderate demand growth projected for most other Asian countries. Europe and FSU 5.8 5.1 5.3 5.2 5.4 Lower shipments forecast for this year due to lower crop prices and weaker Euro. FSU countries expected to show continued moderate growth. Brazil 7.4 7.0 7.3 7.0 7.3 The forecast for 2015 is unchanged. The depreciation of the real offsets much of the drop in crop prices and underpins P demand. Declines from last year result from a drawdown of channel inventories. Other Latin America 3.0 2.8 3.0 2.8 3.0 Flat to moderate growth projected for most other Latin American countries. North America 8.8 8.7 8.9 8.6 8.8 Expectations for 2015 are little changed with shipments ticking lower on reductions in planted area (our 2015 corn, soybean and wheat acreage forecasts are 88-89, 84-85 and 55-56 million acres). Other 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.6 3.8 Flat to moderate growth expected in Africa and parts of the Middle East . Total 64.6 64.4 66.5 64.5 66.5 Our 2015 point estimate was revised down slightly to 65.3 mmt with small upward revisions in Asia and small downward revisions in North America. Source: CRU and Mosaic. Numbers may not sum to total due to rounding.

 
36 Global Potash Shipment Forecasts by Region (April 30, 2015) Muriate of Potash Million Tonnes (KCl) 2014R Feb Low 2015F Feb High 2015F Apr Low 2015F Apr High 2015F Comments China 13.8 12.7 13.1 14.0 14.2 Implied shipments (P+M-X) jumped to 13.8 mmt last year and are projected to increase to 14.0-14.2 mmt this year (6.5 mmt production plus net imports of 7.5-7.7 mmt). Channel inventories increased ~0.9 mmt last year and are projected to increase ~0.3 mmt this year. India 4.3 4.1 4.4 4.4 4.6 India imported 4.3 mmt in CY14. Farm economics remain profitable and import economics work. We project India will import ~4.5 mmt in CY15, with most of that arriving during the back half of 2015. Indonesia/Malaysia 5.1 4.7 4.9 4.8 5.0 Demand is expected to remain strong in 2015 due to still profitable palm oil economics (aided by biodiesel subsidy boost in Indonesia), relatively low channel inventories, and continued moderate SMOP prices. Europe and FSU 10.3 10.8 11.1 10.2 10.4 Our 2015 forecast was pared back from earlier expectations due to lower crop prices and weaker Euro. Flat demand this year is the result of higher NPK output and slightly lower direct application use. Brazil 9.3 8.4 8.7 8.7 8.9 Implied shipments (P+M-X) totaled a record 9.3 mmt in 2014 with imports exceeding 8.9 mmt. This resulted in a ~0.3 mmt build of channel inventories. Shipments are projected to drop to ~8.8 mmt this year due to small drops in use and channel inventories. North America 9.8 8.7 8.9 8.4 8.6 Shipments in CY14 reached 9.8 mmt, the highest level since 2007, due to a strong 2013/14 last semester and a strong 2014/15 first semester. The opposite seasonal pattern is expected this year and, as a result, shipments are expected to drop to ~8.5 mmt in CY15. Other 9.1 8.5 8.9 8.4 8.6 Exceptional shipments last year in Africa, the Middle East, and other Asian and Latin American countries are expected to moderate in 2015 due to inventory builds and lower crop prices. Total 61.7 57.9 60.0 58.9 60.3 Record 2014 shipments resulted in inventory builds in most countries. Shipments are forecast to drop this year as a result of inventory pulls in most countries and modest declines in demand in others. Shipments in 2015 are forecast at 59-60 mmt, with a point estimate of 59.5 mmt. Source: CRU and Mosaic. Numbers may not sum to total due to rounding.

 


1 The State of Agriculture and Plant Nutrient Industries Piper Jaffray Technology-Enabled Industrials Symposium Minneapolis, MN August 5, 2015 Dr. Michael R. Rahm Vice President Market and Strategic Analysis The Mosaic Company

 
2 Topics and Take-Aways  Agricultural Observations and Outlook - Near term: Bipolar markets but likely no price collapse or spike - Long term: Food story not in vogue today but still solidly intact  Plant Nutrient Observations and Outlook - The Mosaic Company - Near term • Cautious sentiment but positive demand prospects • Key countries insulated from vagaries of commodity markets • Several supply hiccups keep markets roughly balanced - Long term • Solid demand drivers and forecasts • A new supply ballgame • Better-than-expected supply/demand balances

 
3 Safe Harbor This document contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include, but are not limited to, statements about the Wa’ad Al Shamal Phosphate Company (also known as the Ma’aden joint venture), the acquisition and assumption of certain related liabilities of the Florida phosphate assets of CF Industries, Inc. (“CF”) and Mosaic’s ammonia supply agreements with CF; repurchases of stock; other proposed or pending future transactions or strategic plans and other statements about future financial and operating results. Such statements are based upon the current beliefs and expectations of The Mosaic Company’s management and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties include but are not limited to risks and uncertainties arising from the ability of the Ma’aden joint venture to obtain additional planned funding in acceptable amounts and upon acceptable terms, the timely development and commencement of operations of production facilities in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the future success of current plans for the Ma’aden joint venture and any future changes in those plans; difficulties with realization of the benefits of the long term ammonia supply agreements with CF, including the risk that the cost savings from the agreements may not be fully realized or that the price of natural gas or ammonia changes to a level at which the natural gas based pricing under one of these agreements becomes disadvantageous to Mosaic; customer defaults; the effects of Mosaic’s decisions to exit business operations or locations; the predictability and volatility of, and customer expectations about, agriculture, fertilizer, raw material, energy and transportation markets that are subject to competitive and other pressures and economic and credit market conditions; the level of inventories in the distribution channels for crop nutrients; the effect of future product innovations or development of new technologies on demand for our products; changes in foreign currency and exchange rates; international trade risks and other risks associated with Mosaic’s international operations and those of joint ventures in which Mosaic participates, including the risk that protests against natural resource companies in Peru extend to or impact the Miski Mayo mine; changes in government policy; changes in environmental and other governmental regulation, including expansion of the types and extent of water resources regulated under federal law, greenhouse gas regulation, implementation of numeric water quality standards for the discharge of nutrients into Florida waterways or efforts to reduce the flow of excess nutrients into the Mississippi River basin, the Gulf of Mexico or elsewhere; further developments in judicial or administrative proceedings, or complaints that Mosaic’s operations are adversely impacting nearby farms, business operations or properties; difficulties or delays in receiving, increased costs of or challenges to necessary governmental permits or approvals or increased financial assurance requirements; resolution of global tax audit activity; the effectiveness of Mosaic’s processes for managing its strategic priorities; adverse weather conditions affecting operations in Central Florida, the Mississippi River basin, the Gulf Coast of the United States or Canada, and including potential hurricanes, excess heat, cold, snow, rainfall or drought; actual costs of various items differing from management’s current estimates, including, among others, asset retirement, environmental remediation, reclamation or other environmental regulation, Canadian resources taxes and royalties, or the costs of the Ma’aden joint venture, its existing or future funding and Mosaic’s commitments in support of such funding; reduction of Mosaic’s available cash and liquidity, and increased leverage, due to its use of cash and/or available debt capacity to fund share repurchases, financial assurance requirements and strategic investments; brine inflows at Mosaic’s Esterhazy, Saskatchewan, potash mine or other potash shaft mines; other accidents and disruptions involving Mosaic’s operations, including potential mine fires, floods, explosions, seismic events or releases of hazardous or volatile chemicals; and risks associated with cyber security, including reputational loss, as well as other risks and uncertainties reported from time to time in The Mosaic Company’s reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Actual results may differ from those set forth in the forward-looking statements.

 
4 Agricultural Observations and Outlook Near Term

 
5 Bipolar agricultural commodity markets  Prices trended down during the first half following record harvests – fears of $3 corn, $8 soybeans and $4 wheat  Weather/short-covering rally during FH July – worries of crop disasters in USA and Europe and uncertainties about impact of an El Niño  Prices drop to near pre-rally levels due to improved weather and concerns about impact of macroeconomic events on demand/trade 3.60 3.80 4.00 4.20 4.40 4.60 US$ BU New Crop Corn Price Daily Close Dec '15 Contract Source: CME 9.00 9.30 9.60 9.90 10.20 10.50 US$ BU New Crop Soybean Price Daily Close Nov '15 Contract Source: CME 5.25 5.50 5.75 6.00 6.25 6.50 6.75 US$ BU New C op HRW Wheat Price Daily Close Jul '16 Contract Source: CME

 
6 Bipolar traders and fund managers  In the case of soybeans, managers moved from a net short soybean position of 64,000 contracts or 320 million bushels on June 16 to a net long of 90,000 contracts or 450 million bushels on July 21.  Funds began to slowly liquidate net long positions in late July due to improved U.S. weather and renewed concerns about the impact of macroeconomic events on demand and trade flows  Funds built large net short positions during the first half of 2015 following record North and South American harvests and worries about the impact of several macroeconomic developments  But funds moved quickly from the short to long side of the market during FH of July. In the case of corn, funds swung from a net short position of 120,000 contracts or 600 million bushels on June 16 to a net long of 280,000 contracts or 1.4 billion bushels on July 21 – a 2.0 billion swing in just five weeks! -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 000's Contracts Source: CFTC Net Corn Position of Managed Funds Data through July 28, 2015 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 000's Contracts Source: CFTC Net Soybean Position of Managed Funds Data through July 28, 2015

 
7 Bullish vs. bearish arguments and our call Bullish Rage Bearish Funk  Much lower 2014/15 U.S. carry-out stocks due to a smaller than estimated 2014 harvest and larger than estimated demand especially for feed use  Lower 2015 U.S. harvested acreage and yields than the market is trading today as a result of excessive rainfall in the southern and eastern Corn Belt  Below average European/FSU harvests as well as the potential of the strong El Nino event negatively impacting Asia and Australia later this year  Demand expected to remain strong due recovery of livestock sectors and steady biofuels production  Dollar expected to stabilize or weaken because concerns about the global economy and Chinese growth prospects greatly overblown  Much larger U.S. crop than market is trading today due to nearly ideal July weather and favorable forecasts for the remainder of the growing season  Myopic markets too focused on USA and eastern corn belt and not paying attention to potential record yields in western corn belt and record South American supplies available at competitive prices  Dollar expected to strengthen further as a result of the weak global economy, a collapse of Chinese equity markets, and ongoing debt crises in Greece and other EU countries  Chinese agricultural policy reforms expected to result in lower corn and wheat support prices, less imports of competing feed grains, and more domestic soybean production Crop prices stabilize with new crop corn at +/- $4 and soybeans at +/-$10 per bushel THE CALL:

 
8 Agricultural Observations and Outlook Long Term

 
9 Food story not in vogue today but still solidly intact  Demand is projected to increase another 420 million tonnes during the next decade -- so world production again will need to increase by the current output of the ABCs, plus Australia.  Farmers around the world will need to plant record area and reap record yields, year after year, in order to meet the projected demand for agricultural commodities during this decade and beyond  Steady increases in population and income produce predictable increases in grain and oilseed demand  The global harvest will need to increase ~380 million tonnes during this decade in order to meet projected grain and oilseed demand  This increase is greater than the current combined harvests of Argentina, Brazil and Canada (the ABCs) 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75 4.00 750 775 800 825 850 875 900 925 950 975 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15F 20F 25F 30F MT HaMil Ha World Harvested Area and Average Yield Actual Area Forecast Area Actual Yield Required Yield Source: USDA and Mosaic 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15F 20F 25F 30F Mil Tonnes Source: USDA and Mosaic World Grain and Oilseed Use Actual for Biofuels Actual Forecast for Biofuels Forecast

 
10 More mouths to feed and a larger and more affluent middle class  More mouths to feed especially in Africa and Asia (80% of projected population growth)  A larger and more affluent middle class in much of the developing world who upgrade diets to more protein rich and grain and oilseed intensive foods  Drags on grain and oilseed demand from the leveling off of biofuels production and potential Impacts of less waste, more healthy lifestyles, and the “good food” movement in developed countries North America 30% Europe 24% Other Asia and Oceania 17% China 12% Latin America 6% Mideast 4% India 3% Africa 2% FSU 1% Share of Global GDP Growth 1980-2010 Source: IHS Global Insight North America 18% Europe 11% Other Asia and Oceania 13% China 28% Latin America 9% Mideast 6% India 9% Africa 5% FSU 2% Share of Global GDP Growth 2010-2040 Source: IHS Global Insight 1% 2% 3% 6% 8% 17% 21% 42% 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 FSU Europe North America China Mideast Latin America India Other Asia/Oceania Africa Million Population Change 2040 vs. 2010 Source: IHS Global Insight

 
11 Plant Nutrient Observations and Outlook The Mosaic Company

 
12 Overview of The Mosaic Company Mosaic helps the world grow the food it needs by mining phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) minerals and refining these ores into plant nutrient products that are essential for global agriculture. In big round numbers, our North American operations typically dig, pump, cut, convey and hoist 105 million tonnes of raw P&K ores from the earth each year. We remove the sand, clay, salt and other elements to produce roughly 26 million tonnes of refined ores. We then process these refined ores into about 19 million tonnes of finished products using an additional six million tonnes of purchased or manufactured raw materials such as sulphur and anhydrous ammonia. The Largest P&K Company in the World Mosaic – Leading Miner of Agricultural Minerals Based on 2014 production P2O5 production based on PACID and SSP production K2O production based on MOP, SOP, and KMS production Source: Company reports, IFA, CRU, Fertecon and Mosaic 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 Mosaic Uralkali PotashCorp Belaruskali OCP Qi ghai Salt Lake Israel Chemi al K+ S Yuntianhua Vale Million Nutrient Tonnes K2O P2O5

 
13 Phosphate Operations U.S. Phosphate Operations 53% 47% Phosphate Sales 2012-14 North America Offshore Offshore Phosphate Operations  35% equity stake in Bayovar phosphate rock mine in Peru  25% equity stake in Ma’aden II mine and chemical complex under development in Saudi Arabia (2016)

 
14 Phosphate Cost Position – Lowest Quartile  Vertically integrated with large-scale and low- cost phosphate rock operations in Florida  Saudi Arabian JV is expected to be low cost with advantaged access to India  CF phosphate business acquisition provides access to more phosphate rock and ability to realize significant synergies  Long term ammonia supply agreement based on U.S. natural gas prices Lowest Quartile Cost Producer Mosaic Advantage: M os ai c -F L M os ai c -U nc le S am & F au st in a US$/Tonne Million Tonnes 2014 PACID Industry Cost Curve fob facility at Production Source: CRU

 
15 Potash Operations NA Potash Operations 47% 53% Potash Sales 2012-14 North America Offshore

 
16 Potash Cost Position – Increasingly Competitive • Competitive cash cost position on relatively flat cost curve • Optimization of North American operations • New K3 shaft at Esterhazy provides the option of mitigating brine management costs Mosaic Advantage: Relatively Flat Cost Curve Brine costs Mosaic Sask 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 US$/Tonne Million Tonnes 2014 MOP Industry Cost Curve fob Port Source: CRU and Mosaic Brine costs

 
17 Innovation: Our MicroEssentials® Story  Investing in expected future demand growth - Produced today in three granulation plants with annual capacity of 2.3 million tonnes - $225 million project approved and in progress will convert two more granulation plants at New Wales and increase capacity to 3.6 million tonnes  MicroEssentials® deliver significant value - Sulphur in elemental and sulphate form as well as key micronutrients such as zinc ribboned throughout each granule - Yield increases of 3%-7% based on field trials conducted during the last 10 years - Largest yield boost in the most intensive cropping systems - Value share across supply chain from farmer to retail dealer to Mosaic  Rapid adoption of MicroEssentials® - Production of 1.9 million tonnes in CY 2014 - Marketed to strategic customers in North America and offshore geographies

 
18 Integration of ADM’s distribution business The Transaction  Strategic Rationale • Mosaic is largest P&K producer and Brazil is the fastest growing P&K market • Provides downstream market access/pull through for our North American P&K operations • Accelerates our strategy to expand distribution in key geographies (instant offense)  Assets Acquired • Five blending plants and three tolling operations • Total of 2.3 million tonnes of blending capacity

 
19 Our Strategic Priorities + =

 
20 Plant Nutrient Observations and Outlook Near Term

 
21 NPKs remain affordable and generate high ROIs  Our plant nutrient affordability metric has bobbed and weaved with agricultural commodity prices, but the current reading indicates that plant nutrients still remain affordable  The metric registered .81 at the end of July, off from .88 a year ago and in line with the ten-year average of .82, but slightly greater than the five- year average of .74.  Compared to a year ago, affordability has improved due to a drop in plant nutrient costs that exceeded the decline in crop prices  Nitrogen: continued strong demand, lower raw materials costs, large Chinese supplies, and new capacity on the horizon  Phosphate: continued strong demand, stubbornly high raw materials costs, record Chinese exports but a long list of production losses  Potash: continued strong demand, increased FSU supplies, strong dollar lowers costs for all major exporters, new capacity on the horizon 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Plant Nutrient Affordability Plant Nutrient Price Index / Crop Price Index Affordability Metric Average Source: Weekly Price Publications, CME, USDA, AAPFCO, Mosaic 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13 Jan '14 Jul '14 Jan ' 5 Jul '15 $ ST U.S. NPK Prices fob NOLA Barge DAP Potash Urea Source: Green Markets and Argus FMB

 
22 Cautious sentiment but still positive demand prospects  We have narrowed the range of our 2015 P&K shipment estimates and tabled preliminary forecasts for 2016  Global shipments of the leading solid phosphate products are projected to total 65 to 66 million tonnes this year and then increase to 66 to 68 million in 2016  In the case of potash, muriate of potash (MOP) shipments are forecast to total 59 to 60 million tonnes in 2015 and then climb to 61 to 63 million next year  We have long maintained that P&K demand prospects look positive with one important caveat – no collapse of agricultural commodity prices  Recent weather events in North America and Europe have greatly reduced the odds of three- dollar corn, eight-dollar soybeans and four-dollar wheat this year  These developments are expected to lift demand uncertainties overhanging some regions such as Brazil and North America and solidify our forecasts for strong second-half shipments 59-60 61-63 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15E16F Global Potash ShipmentsMil Tonnes KCl Source: CRU and Mosaic 65-66 66-68 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 00 01 02 03 04 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15E16F Global Phosphate ShipmentsMMT Product DAP/MAP/MES/TSP Source: CRU and Mosaic

 
23 Insulated from the vagaries of ag commodity prices  China - Government supports crop prices at high levels through procurement programs that are designed to build strategic reserves and support rural economies. - Corn traded at an average price of $9.35 per bushel on the Dalian exchange and wheat traded at ~$12.00 per bushel on the Zhengzhou exchange during July.  India - Government supports crop prices through procurement programs that pay farmers a Minimum Support Price for staple crops moving into government storage - Government also provides farmers with generous plant nutrient subsidies  Brazil - The collapse of the real coupled with still relatively high soybean prices typically would have supercharged the export-oriented agricultural sector. - That has not happened yet, but the current price of soybeans in real per bushel is nearly equal to peaks of the last few years - Other factors including the volatility of the real, delays in releasing government- subsidized farm credit, and economic and political uncertainties have delayed shipments and imports this year

 
24 North American shipment prospects  Potash shipments in 2013/14 likely were elevated due to large summer fill shipments during the last half of May and June last year  Shipments are projected to decline in 2014/15, but the drop likely was smaller-than-expected and implies that the pipeline remained well stocked on June 30  As a result, we project that shipments will drop in 2015/16 as a result of some destocking of the distribution pipeline  North American phosphate shipments have remained steady despite ongoing concerns by some analysts that farmers will cut back on application rates  Based on very preliminary assumptions for acreage and application rates for next year, we project that shipments will drop only slightly in 2015/16  We expect a good fall application season as long as Mother Nature cooperates and agricultural commodity prices settle at expected levels 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15E 16F Mil Tonnes Product North America DAP/MAP/MES/TSP Shipments Source: AAPFCO, TFI, IFA and Mosaic Fertilizer Year Ending June 30 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15E 16F Mil Tonnes KCl North American MOP Shipments Source: IPNI and Mosaic Fertilizer Year Ending June 30

 
25 Several supply hic-cups keep markets roughly balanced  Phosphate  Potash - Potential loss of Uralkali’s Solikamsk 2 mine - Long strike at ICL’s Dead Sea Works operations in Israel during FH 2015 Year Country Company Facility Closed Capacity Permanent Closures Spain Fertiberia Huelva 2010 740 USA Agrifos Pasadena 2011 740 USA PotashCorp Suwannee River 2014 470 USA MissPhos Pascagoula 2014 840 Subtotal 2,790 Temporary Shut-Downs or Reduced Operating Rates Tunisia GCT Gabes Ongoing 1,000 Russia UralChem Voskresensk Ongoing 650 Philippines Philphos Leyte Ongoing 860 Israel ICL Rotem Fire ? South Africa Foskor Phalaborwa ? ? Jordan JPMC Aqaba ? ? Moroccor OCP Jorf Lasfar JPH 1 Delayed ? Mexico Fertinal Lazaro Cardenas ? ? Subtotal 2,510 Total 5,300 Source: CRU, January 2015. Capacity is expressed in 1000 tonnes DAP equivalent.

 
26 Plant Nutrient Observations and Outlook Long Term

 
27 Solid demand drivers and forecasts  Global shipments have increased 7.6 mmt from 2010 to 2014 but most of the growth occurred in 2014  Growth led by China and Brazil with help from other regions  India also was a major drag on global K demand  Shipments projected to increase 2.0% to 2.5% per year from 2014 to 2019 with widespread gains but led by India, China and Brazil  Global shipments increased 6.5 mmt from 2010 to 2014 led by China and Brazil  India was a major drag on global demand growth  Demand is projected to grow 3.0% to 3.5% per year from 2014 to 2019  A strong rebound in India, further growth in China and continued growth in Brazil 30 40 50 60 70 80 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15E 19F Global Phosphate Shipments Actual High Forecast Low Forecast Likely Forecast CRU - July 2015 MMT DAP/MAP/MES/TSP Source: Mosaic and CRU Phosphate Outlook July 2015 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15E 19F MMT MOP Global Po ash Shipments Actual High Forecast Low Forecast Likely Forecast Fertecon - Sep 2014 CRU - Feb 2015 Source: Mosaic, CRU Outlook February 2015 and Fertecon Outlook September 2014.

 
28 A new supply ballgame  Significant new capacity expected on line during the last half of this decade  Most or ~87% of new capacity from brownfield expansion by current producers  Some or ~10 million tonnes required to replace depleted or flooded mines  Limited greenfield capacity by new entrants by the end of the decade  China accounted for all of the net increase in phosphate supplies since 1995  China has stopped building plants and future demand growth will be met by supplies mostly from Morocco and Saudi Arabia 54.7 58.0 1.0 1.5 0.6 0.2 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 2014 OCP Ma'aden Other China 2019F MMT P2O5 Source: CRU, July 2015. Global Phosphoric Acid Capacity 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 05 10 15E 20F MMT KCl Global Muriate of Potash Capacity Most Likely Scenario Greenfield by New Entrants Brown/Olivefield 2010 Base Source: Company Reports, Fertecon and Mosaic

 
29 Stable & better-than-expected supply/demand balances  Most consultants project that MOP capacity will climb to 95-100 million tonnes KCl by the end of the decade  Based on our assessment of operational capacity (approximately 80 million tonnes in 2020), the global operating rate is expected range from the high 80% to low 90% range for the remainder of this decade  CRU projects modest capacity and demand increases during the next five years, but demand grows slightly faster than capacity so operating rates trend upward  We expect more rapid demand growth and higher and relatively stable global operating rates in the mid-80% range  China production and exports still a wild card 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 10 11 12 13 14 15F 16F 17F 18F 19F 20F Op RateMil Tonnes Th ou sa nd s Source: Company Reports and Mosaic World MOP Capacity, Production and Operating Rate Operational Capacity Production Operating Rate 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16F 18F 20F Op Rate MMT P2O5 Source: CRU and Mosaic. March 2015. Global Phosphoric Acid Supply Capacity Production Operating Rate

 
30 The State of Agriculture and Plant Nutrient Industries Piper Jaffray Technology-Enabled Industrials Symposium Minneapolis, MN August 5, 2015 Dr. Michael R. Rahm Vice President Market and Strategic Analysis The Mosaic Company Thank You!

 
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