By Jason Douglas And Josie Cox
LONDON--A new poll Tuesday showed a surge in support for
Scottish independence, knocking sterling lower on currency markets
and raising the stakes for Britain's leaders just weeks before
Scots vote on whether to leave a 300-year-old union with the rest
of the U.K.
Pollster YouGov said that in its latest poll of more than 1,000
Scots, 42% said they intend to vote for independence in a
referendum Sept. 18, while 48% said they plan to vote to keep
Scotland part of Britain. The remaining 10% were either undecided
or said they won't take part.
YouGov's latest poll, giving the anti-independence camp a
six-point lead, was carried out between Aug. 28 and Sept. 1.
A poll earlier in August put the "no" lead at 12 points.
Financial markets have so far largely ignored the potential
ramifications of the referendum.
But the latest poll results pushed sterling 0.5% lower against
the dollar to reach a five-month low. The slide in the pound toward
$1.65, despite upbeat construction data also released Tuesday,
marks a turnaround for the currency after it hit a near six-year
high over $1.71 in mid-July. In early trade Tuesday, the pound fell
0.5% against the U.S. dollar to $1.6539.
A vote for independence risks spooking foreign investors and
could "precipitate a significant financial accident," said Neville
Hill, head of European economics at Credit Suisse AG.
"Non-U.K. investors are likely to become concerned about what
'U.K.' assets they would be buying. Given that the U.K. needs to
finance a current account surplus worth 5% of GDP, this doesn't
look good for sterling," Mr. Hill said.
The findings--from a polling company whose past results have
shown a convincing lead for the pro-U.K. "no'"camp--are likely to
ring alarm bells in London, where all three main political parties
oppose Scottish independence.
The results will be greeted with jubilation in the
pro-independence "yes" camp, spearheaded by the Scottish National
Party, which holds power in Scotland's semiautonomous parliament in
Edinburgh.
"A close finish now looks likely, and a "yes" victory is now a
real possibility," said Peter Kellner, YouGov President, in a blog
on his firm's website.
YouGov is one of a handful of pollsters tracking Scots' voting
intentions. Other polls continue to show a stronger lead for the
pro-union "no" camp and none have yet shown an outright majority in
favor of independence, suggesting Scots will vote against secession
at the ballot.
A spokesman for Prime Minister David Cameron told reporters
Tuesday the government remains confident that its arguments for
maintaining the union are getting through to voters.
"The only poll that counts is the referendum itself," he
said.
The pickup in support for the "yes" campaign follows weeks of
intense campaigning by both sides, including a bad-tempered
televised debate between Alex Salmond, the chief minister in
Scotland's government and leader of the SNP, and Alistair Darling,
a Scot and former U.K. finance minister who leads the pro-U.K.
Better Together campaign. A snap poll published after the debate
showed a majority of viewers thought Mr. Salmond the winner.
It also follows an intervention by business leaders, more than
100 of whom signed a letter saying independence would be bad for
Scotland' economy.
Yet YouGov's poll showed Scots' nervousness about the economic
consequences of quitting the U.K. has diminished, despite warnings
from London that an independent Scotland would be considerably
worse off than if the nation stayed in the U.K. YouGov reported
that 35% of Scots thought Scotland would be better off outside the
U.K, up from 32% in August. Mr. Salmond has long argued Scotland's
oil wealth would ensure the country would prosper if Scots choose
to secede.
In financial markets, however, the increasing prospect of
Scotland leaving the U.K. is unsettling investors.
BlackRock Inc., the world's largest asset management firm with
about $4.3 trillion in assets under management, last week said it
is now using derivatives to bet against sterling heading into the
vote.
The chief investment officer of Kleinwort Benson, which has
GBP5.7 billion under management, meanwhile, has warned that a
winning independence vote could easily see the pound collapse.
In bond markets, the U.K.'s December Gilt slipped a third of a
point lower to 113.06, according to Tradeweb. 10-year U.K.
government bonds currently yield 2.419%.
Katie Martin
and Nicholas Winning contributed to this article.
Write to Josie Cox at josie.cox@wsj.com