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Bill Cara
Bill Cara's columns :
01/16/2006North American markets are losing momentum
12/19/2005North American markets are nearing a cycle top
12/12/2005North American markets readying for winter
12/06/2005North American chill in the air
11/21/2005Friday afternoon trapped the bears
11/14/2005Traders have turned bullish, but I'm sitting out
11/07/2005When everybody turns bullish, bad things happen
10/31/2005When told of the impending rally, I ran for cover
10/24/2005One Traders Conundrum
10/17/2005Bear markets come and go
10/10/2005Stagflation - the financial pandemic
10/03/2005Sold to me!
09/26/2005The Rita-Katrina Effect
09/19/2005Rita meet Sam Houston; Sam meet Rita. >>
09/11/2005Pull-back in commodities sets new buying
09/07/2005The Katrina Domino

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Bill Cara – Trends and Cycles in the US and Canadian Markets

Bill Cara has enjoyed a highly successful securities industry career in Canada and abroad. Today he publishes one of the world's most popular and widely acclaimed trading blogs (www.billcara.com ). His weekly column for ADVFN looks at trends and cycles at work in the US and Canadian capital markets.


Rita meet Sam Houston; Sam meet Rita.

09/19/2005

Because Rita is a newborn and Texas has been around for a hundred and sixty years; it is proper etiquette to first introduce her to the elderly, as a matter of respect for the latter.

But wait; in about seven days, little Rita might have grown to be a heck of a girl, say size 3 or 4 maybe? And the part of Texas that Rita meets, in fact, just may be Sam Houston's Galveston port and his offshore oilrigs.

Could it be that mighty Texas can't handle baby Rita?

You do know of course that Rita is possibly Katrina's little sister - yes, that Katrina, the whirlwind I called Katrina-Petrina when she was passing by the Bahamas, on a northwest heading that should have taken her nowhere near the Big Easy, or the oil rigs and refineries close to New Orleans. Like a woman, she changed her mind, and tracked south, then west. And she soon turned from the tiny size of Rita today into a monster Category 5 hurricane, which then hit the U.S. Gulf States with enough force to literally destroy an area the size of Great Britain.

When a single weather system can displace 1.5 million people, cause 1,000 deaths and cost $200 billion dollars to recover from, it is THE NEXT ONE that puts people on notice.

So this time, it could be that Rita, who today seems to be on the right path to be The Next One, meets Sam Houston in the heart of "crown jewels" of Texas, as it were, next weekend. And, should Rita stay her present course, I'm predicting that she will be given a degree of respect not afforded Katrina prior to her arrival three weeks ago.

So how do we traders welcome the arrival of Rita?

Well, there are seven groups in my North American oil & gas market monitor. Other than maybe gold, why would you look elsewhere?

Oil & Gas Drilling & Exploration: GSF NBR NE PDS RIG

Oil & Gas Equipment & Services: BHI BJS HAL RDC

Integrated Oil & Gas - USA: AHC CVX COP XOM

Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada: IMO PCZ SU

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production - USA: APC APA BR DVN EOG KMG OXY SUN UCL VLO XTO

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production - Canada: CNQ ECA NXY TLM

Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing: ASH MRO

While I don't recommend stocks, I do have opinions: My favorites among these 33 are three from Canada (IMO SU and ECA) and seven from the U.S. (CVX COP XOM APA DVN VLO and XTO).

According to Fortune, the five oil & gas companies in the U.S. that are growing the fastest overall are:

#1- VLO
EPS growth: 66%
Revenue growth: 52%
Total Return: 63%

#2- DVN
EPS growth: 152%
Revenue growth: 51%
Total Return: 28%

#3- COP
EPS growth: 70%
Revenue growth: 70%
Total Return: 28%

#4- XTO
EPS growth: 26%
Revenue growth: 40%
Total Return: 55%

#5- APA
EPS growth: 46%
Revenue growth: 34%
Total Return: 34%

These U.S. companies are all in the S&P 500, and the Canadian stocks are all among the largest of large cap stocks in that country.

As I'm out of words for now, I'll leave it to you to check out all the names. And because Katrina gave quite a shot to these stocks recently, please check out the charts. It could be that Rita prefers to tangle with Mexico, and she might tire before she gets herself across the Gulf. In that scenario, these oils might relax.

One more thing: On Tuesday Alan Greenspan's FOMC is going to raise rates, or maybe not. We don't know yet. If the Fed does tighten, there might be a small pullback in the oils and golds, before they subsequently move to new record high levels, as I see it.

But if the FOMC pulls its punch on Tuesday, then I expect oils and golds to move higher immediately. And if Rita hits anywhere north of Brownsville, I'm taking her in a knockout of Sam Houston at the Friday night fights.

It's a golden bet.