Fed Officials Say Raising Rates Gradually Remains the Best Approach
May 25 2018 - 4:28PM
Dow Jones News
By Paul Kiernan
DALLAS -- Two Fed officials said Friday they remain committed to
a gradual path of interest-rate increases, indicating they see no
need to lift borrowing costs more aggressively because of firming
inflation.
"There are a host of reasons why I think we need to be moving
gradually, not the least of which is, that's what we told people
that's what we're going to do," Atlanta Fed President Raphael
Bostic said during a panel discussion at a conference here. "Absent
some really, really big information, I think we're in a position
where we can continue to do that without a lot of costs."
Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan also said he favored
"gradual" rate rises, using a term the central bank has employed to
describe its intended pace of policy tightening without specifying
how much and how quickly they would move.
The Fed raised its benchmark short-term rate three times last
year in quarter-percentage-point steps and in March penciled in
three increases this year. Some central bank officials, however,
say they could see moving four times this year, depending on how
the economy performs.
Officials raised their benchmark rate in March to a range
between 1.5% and 1.75%. They left the rate unchanged at their May
1-2 meeting but signaled in the minutes of the session, released
Wednesday, that they likely would raise it at their next meeting,
June 12-13.
Consumer prices rose 2% in the year ended in March, according to
the Fed's preferred gauge, hitting the central bank's inflation
target after running below it for most of the past several
years.
Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, speaking on the same panel
Friday, noted the recent rise in price pressures and said, "You
wouldn't want inflation to pick up too much. So that could be
consistent with a faster pace" of rate increases.
But officials at the May meeting said it was too soon to be sure
inflation would stay near their goal after years of persistent
weakness, according to the minutes.
Mr. Kaplan said Friday that businesses' pricing power appears to
have grown more limited in recent years, possibly leading to more
muted inflationary pressures even at low rates of unemployment.
Mr. Kaplan, Mr. Bostic and Mr. Evans all said Friday it was
difficult to assess the impact of technological innovations on
productivity, wages and inflation, and their implications for
monetary policy.
Mr. Bostic, noting Amazon's plans to boost the price of its
Prime membership service by 20%, said giant tech companies'
domination of certain sectors of the economy could put upward
pressure on prices. "That could mean we could wind up with a much
less competitive environment," he said.
Mr. Evans said that while "the Fed's job is really hard,"
monetary policy makers have always had to make decisions in the
face of uncertainty and economic change.
All three men said the Fed is close to reaching, or has reached,
its so-called dual mandate to achieve the healthiest job market
possible and low, stable inflation.
Therefore, Mr. Kaplan said, the Fed should be raising its
benchmark rate toward a neutral level that neither spurs nor slows
economic growth. He said that rate is likely between 2.5% and
2.75%.
He is less sure what to do once the benchmark rate arrives at
neutral. "I think we're going to have quite an agonizing debate for
lots of reasons...as we move along the path."
Write to Paul Kiernan at paul.kiernan@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 25, 2018 16:13 ET (20:13 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2018 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.