By Thomas Gryta
The new year will test whether the telecom industry's price war
has hit a near-term peak--as AT&T Inc. and Verizon
Communications Inc. have suggested--or whether more profit-sapping
pain is ahead for the industry's leaders.
In 2014, the problem has been T-Mobile US Inc., which got rid of
contracts and paid subscribers to switch. In the year ahead, the
problem could be Sprint Corp., which now needs to stop shedding
customers after abandoning an effort to buy T-Mobile.
There are other wild cards, too. Satellite broadcaster Dish
Network Corp. has billions of dollars worth of wireless licenses
and could in theory emerge as a competitor. Cable companies, too,
may yet enter the wireless fray, possibly by building upon the
coverage given by their Wi-Fi networks.
The price battle has been welcomed by U.S. subscribers, who
generally consume more data on their smartphones and face some of
the highest monthly wireless bills in the world, and by regulators,
who were hoping for just such an outcome when they shot down
AT&T's $39 billion deal to buy T-Mobile in 2011 and warned
Sprint off trying its own deal last year.
But the promotions are taking a toll on the carriers at a bad
time--just as investors are worrying about the soaring cost of
acquiring the spectrum needed to grow. Share prices of the biggest
four wireless carriers were hit late in the year, and Verizon and
AT&T warned their profits would be hurt.
The Federal Communications Commission's auction of spectrum
licenses by has drawn nearly $45 billion in bids and isn't
over.
AT&T is spending big to decrease its dependence on the U.S.
wireless market with the pending acquisition of DirecTV and its
move into the Mexico.
"With an uneven performance this year, we believe 2015 will see
further value destruction for an industry that is in need of
significant help," said David Dixon, an analyst at FBR Capital
Markets.
Write to Thomas Gryta at thomas.gryta@wsj.com
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