Monthly Report
December 19 2003 - 12:20PM
UK Regulatory
RNS Number:5226T
Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC
19 December 2003
Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC
REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER 2003
SUMMARY
The Latin American benchmark was up 1.7% in November, outperforming the U.S.
markets and some of its emerging market peers. Within Latin America, Brazil and
Peru were the strongest performers in November while Mexico was a laggard and
Chile produced negative returns on profit taking. The MSCI Brazil rose 3.4%
despite the Real weakening over 4% against sterling. On the macro and political
fronts, Brazil extended its current IMF agreement to the coming year and was
upgraded by Fitch Ratings from "B" to B+". In addition, the Central Bank cut the
Selic rate by another 150 basis points to 17.5%. In Mexico, activity was
dominated by inconclusive political debate on fiscal reform and divisions within
the PRI. Economic activity remained weak and expectations for a resumption in
growth were tempered.
The Trust's NAV was up 2.0% for the month, slightly outperforming the index.
Country allocation was positive, however company selection suffered due to a
rise in several Brazilian stocks not owned in the portfolio (Eletrobras and
Embraer again) and the portfolio's overweight position in CVRD which declined
for the month. In addition, holdings of selective Mexican consumer stocks
(Modelo, Femsa and Consorcio Ara) posted negative returns for the month, as did
certain stocks in Chile, such as CTC and Enersis where we are overweight. For
the year to date, our NAV is up 35.5 % versus the index of 41.4%.
BRAZIL
The Brazilian MSCI rose 3.4% for the month while the IBOVESPA was up 7.65%. This
was despite the currency weakening by over 4% against sterling. The Brazilian
Central Bank surprised the market with a rate cut of 150 basis points as
inflation expectations continued to fall. The 12-month inflation level reached
its lowest level this year, declining to 12.98%. Economic activity remained
anaemic. Third quarter GDP fell 1.5% year on year, worse than expected. All
sectors reported negative rates, agriculture was down nearly 3%, services off
(-0.8%) and industry (-1.6%). On a positive note, October's trade data reported
a surplus of $2.54 billion. Year to date, the trade surplus totalled US $20.34
billion, more than twice as much as the same period in 2002. On the political
front, expectation of the Senate's passage of social security reform gained
momentum (which bill was passed the beginning of December). The government also
said it would unveil a new electricity model by year end which gave further
strength to stock prices in this sector.
With the primary surplus numbers in line, and the IMF agreement closing, we
expect the country to meet the agreed upon target of 4.25% of GDP. The new
standby facility amounts to $US 14 billion, of which $US 6 billion is new money.
The programme is preventative, and no drawings are expected. With signs that
growth may be picking up, inflationary expectations on the decline, and the
current account under control, the macroeconomic backdrop appears to be
strengthening, as is the political front where passage of key reforms looks more
imminent. The combination of a sounder macroeconomic front with a positive
political agenda gives Brazil several catalysts for continued good performance
next year.
Stock specific news this month included stronger than expected third quarter
results for Petrobras, above consensus numbers for the banks (Itau in
particular) and a strong showing for Cemig, the electricity concern owned in the
portfolio.
MEXICO
The MSCI Mexico rose 2.3% in sterling while the peso continued to decline
against the pound, off 4.7% for the month. A surprising showdown among the
leaders of the PRI appeared to discourage the chances of a meaningful approval
of fiscal reform as the PRI's President publicly disassociated himself with the
PRI's own proposal for tax reform. September's industrial production came in
worse than expected and Mexico's third quarter GDP declined 1.4% quarter on
quarter. Consensus Economics has GDP continuing on a downward trend in 2003 (to
1.43%) and 2004 (to 3.24%). The main message to take away is that despite the
upturn in the U.S. economy, there is still no evidence of a recovery in Mexico's
externally oriented sectors, and this could intensify concerns regarding a
weakening of the industrial link with the U.S. due to a loss of competitiveness
in low-value-added industries. On a positive note, inflation remains benign and
interest rates at historic lows. Moody's rating agency noted that the expected
global economic recovery, a stable Mexican inflationary environment and lower
domestic interest rates can permit a higher rating, even in a scenario where
structural reforms are not approved near term.
Stock specifics for the month included lacklustre performance by Telmex, and
Walmex, both of which underperformed the index, Femsa and Modelo which had
negative returns for the month, while America Movil, Cemex and Televisa all
outperformed for November.
CHILE
The Chilean MSCI underperformed the regional index for the month, down 4.7% in
sterling with the peso basically flat against the pound. There was no negative
news for the month, in fact with the Central Bank keeping rates unchanged there
was positive sentiment regarding prospects for growth for next year. Profit
taking was largely the reason for the month's poor showing. Third quarter GDP
rose 3% year over year, driven almost exclusively by external demand. Exports
rose 13.5% year over year. The improving global outlook reinforces the positive
trends for next year, particularly for Chile's main exports, copper and pulp.
ARGENTINA
The Argentine MSCI was down slightly for the month, (-0.3%) with the peso down
5.4% against sterling. The economic recovery remains robust, while a slight
uptick in inflation in October raised concerns. This news was more pronounced
given the government's announced wage increases for October. The government
raised the minimum wage by 17% and state pensions by 9%, in an effort to spur
consumption. Industrial production was up 17% in October, year on year, however
off a very low base. Little apparent progress was made on the external debt
restructuring, while utility tariff renegotiations remain slow. These two
negotiations remain the key issues to be followed in the next few months.
Kirchner remains very popular, with a 78% positive rating as of mid-November,
however he has yet to tackle any of the significant issues to put Argentina on a
sound economic footing. There was little stock specific news and we remain
unconvinced of the merits of investing in Argentine companies other than those
owned by Ambev, Petrobras and Coca Cola Femsa.
PERU / VENEZUELA
The Peruvian market had another great month, up 14.3% in sterling however the
New Sol weakened again against the pound (down 1.7% for November.). Our sole
holding, Buenaventura, contributed positively to performance as we have an
overweight position and it was up over 21% for the month. The Peruvian economy
grew a better than expected 3.6% in September, and successfully issued US $500
million of a new 30-year bond in the international markets, priced 375 bps over
US Treasuries. Despite this more positive backdrop, there are few quality
companies to own in the country, outside of the mining sector.
Venezuela was also down sharply for the month (-38.0%), however its small
representation in the index renders it negligible to overall performance. The
Venezuelan economy declined over 7% in the third quarter, led by a 9% decline in
the oil economy. The non-oil economy fell 6% driven by a collapse in
construction and commerce activities. With the economy in a tailspin, and
uncertainty over the course of government, we prefer to stay clear of the risk
in owning Venezuelan equities for the near term.
NET ASSET VALUE
Fully diluted
30/11/03 31/10/03 30/11/03 31/10/03
76.8p 75.3p 81.7p 80.5p
MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 30/11/03 31/10/03
Ordinary Shares 65.00p 65.00p
Warrants 14.50p 14.25p
Discount/(Premium) % 15.3 13.7
NAV based on total assets less current liabilities of #36.7 million (#36.0 million).
Market exposure
30/11/03 31/10/03
%) %
EQUITIES
Brazil 50.4 51.2
Chile 6.7 7.9
Mexico 39.2 37.9
Peru 2.9 2.5
TOTAL PORTFOLIO 99.2 99.5
Net Current Assets 0.8 0.5
-------- --------
TOTAL 100.0 100.0
-------- --------
Based on total assets of #41.1 million (#38.9 million).
GEARING
Gearing at 30/11/03 31/10/03
11.9% 8.2%
======== ========
LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value #37.0 million equal to 90.8% of total portfolio)
Country #000's % of portfolio
Petrobras Brazil 4,374 10.7
Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 3,359 8.3
America Movil Mexico 3,265 8.0
Wal-Mart de Mexico Mexico 2,745 6.8
Telmex Mexico 2,367 5.8
Ambev Brazil 2,092 5.1
Banco Itau Brazil 2,040 5.0
Grupo Televisa Mexico 2,002 4.9
Cemex Mexico 1,880 4.6
G.F BBVA-Bancomer Mexico 1,698 4.2
Tele Norte Leste Brazil 1,448 3.6
Minas Buenaventura Peru 1,185 3.0
Sider Nacional Brazil 1,112 2.7
Cemig Cia Energy Brazil 1,075 2.6
Femsa Mexico 823 2.0
Brasil Telecom Brazil 811 2.0
Unibanco-Uniao Brazil 739 1.8
Gerdau Brazil 655 1.6
Telecom de Chile Chile 547 1.3
Bco Bradesco Brazil 530 1.3
Bco Santander Chile 483 1.2
Pao de Acucar Brazil 470 1.2
Quimica Y Minera Chile 434 1.1
Telesp Celular Brazil 424 1.0
Consorcio Mexico 422 1.0
For further information, contact Mark Pope at Deutsche Investment Trust Managers
Limited on
020-7545-0520.
For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors'
Plan, low cost ISA and Dividend Reinvestment Plan (a plan through which
shareholders, who hold their shares on the Company's main register, can use
their dividends to purchase further shares) contact Mark Pope on 020-7545-0520,
e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of Deutsche Latin American
Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly reports can be
found on the Deutsche Investment Trust Managers website located at
www.deutsche-its.co.uk.
Issued by Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche
Investment Trust Managers Limited, authorised and regulated by the Financial
Services Authority and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC.
Investors should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to
future returns, the price of shares and the income from them may fall as well as
rise and investors may not get back the amount they invested. Fluctuations in
exchange rates may also affect the value of your investment. Investment in
Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC presents those risks associated with
emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/or volatile.
This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
END
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