realfast95
10 years ago
I searched the HSOL yahoo chat board for the word Japan and didn't come up with a recent hit. They seem to be under informed
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-09/japan-solar-boom-fizzling-as-utilities-limit-grid-access.html
Solar’s $30 Billion Splurge Proves Too Much for Japan
By Chisaki Watanabe Oct 9, 2014
After spending almost $30 billion on solar energy in a single year and installing as many panels as exist in the whole of Spain, Japan is preparing to ratchet back its boom in photovoltaic power.
At least five of the nation’s utilities are restricting the access of new solar farms to their grids. Utilities say two years of rapid expansion has strained their capacity to absorb all the new electricity from sources that generate only when the sun shines.
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government offered some of the highest incentives for solar in the world to build PV as an alternative to the nuclear reactors shut down after the meltdowns in Fukushima more than three years ago. That made Japan the second-biggest solar market, balancing a slowdown in sales in Germany and Spain, which once led the industry.
“Everyone was entering the solar market because it was lucrative, and that has strained the market,” said Yutaka Miki, who studies clean energy at the Japan Research Institute.
Japan’s trade ministry has approved plans for about 72 gigawatts of renewable energy projects since July 2012. The country installed almost 7.1 gigawatts of solar capacity last year, more than currently exists in all of Spain, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. A gigawatt is about the size of a nuclear reactor.
Japan’s investment in the technology more than tripled to $29.6 billion in 2013 from 2010 levels, data from London-based BNEF show.
Grid Access
Kyushu Electric Power Co. (9508), which supplies power to the southern island of Kyushu, said in late September that it will suspend giving new grid access to clean-energy producers while examining how much more capacity it can take on. The question is whether Japan’s grid can handle intermittent power deliveries from solar farms that only generate when the sun is shining.
Shikoku Electric Power Co. (9507), Tohoku Electric Power Co. (9506), Hokkaido Electric Power Co. (9509) and Okinawa Electric Power Co. (9511) also are curtailing grid access.
Wind power, which accounts for just 1.7 percent of all approved capacity since July 2012, may benefit from bottlenecks in connecting solar plants. After the rapid expansion of solar, more government efforts may be made to increase wind, especially offshore wind, Miki said.
Japan’s incentive program was put in place in July 2012 after the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011. The country responded by idling its fleet of reactors, and introducing a feed-in tariff, above-market rates for power from renewable sources.
Highest Rates
Minus a consumption tax, Japan today pays 32 yen, or 30 U.S. cents, for a kilowatt-hour of solar power and as much as 40 yen for projects approved in fiscal 2012. That’s effectively the highest rate in the world, above the 11.15 pence (18 U.S. cents) per kilowatt-hour offered in the U.K., according to New Energy Finance.
“Plans need to be made to slow down solar, but any forced measures require thorough reviews and explanations,” said Mika Ohbayashi, director of the Japan Renewable Energy Foundation. The Tokyo-based group was set up by Softbank Corp. (9984) founder Masayoshi Son in the aftermath of the Fukushima disaster to promote clean energy.
The government is increasingly concerned about the cost of the rapidly expanding solar industry on top of rising fossil fuel costs. Consumers in Japan paid 28 percent more for electricity in September than they did four years ago while the cost rose just 8.1 percent in the U.S.
Solar Boom
Japan’s feed-in tariff program was designed to encourage solar and other renewables, which also include energy from wind turbines and geothermal wells. It was modeled after policies pioneered in Germany in 2004 and replicated across Europe. The high rates triggered installation booms and later painful efforts to constrain demand.
The goal of Abe’s predecessor was to have renewables account for a fifth of the energy mix by the 2020s. Abe’s administration is pushing to restart reactors and is seeking a balance between renewables and other forms of power.
“We will set the target for clean energy taking into account a balance and attributes of other energy sources,” Abe told parliament Oct. 1. Renewables still make a fraction of Japan’s supply. Without atomic power, traditional fossil fuels now account for about 88 percent of Japan’s power output, compared with about 60 percent before Fukushima, according to the latest data from the nation’s utilities association.
Project Delays
Concerned about delays in completing projects, the government has taken action. From April 1, the trade ministry began requiring solar developers to secure land and equipment within six months of winning tariff approval. It also plans to set up a working group to review Japan’s grid.
The future of the incentive program is already throwing solar developments into limbo -- chief among them a 430-megawatt project under development on Ukujima, an island off Kyushu in southern Japan. The project, touted by panel maker Kyocera Corp. (6971) and its partners as the largest in the world to be built on agricultural land, has yet to secure grid access from Kyushu Electric.
“We had expected Japan’s solar boom to face challenges particularly for the utility-scale market due to Japan’s existing grid infrastructure and lack of an independent system operator,” said Takehiro Kawahara, a Tokyo-based analyst at New Energy Finance. He expects the market for “mega” solar farms “to peak out in 2015 at 3.6 gigawatts of new additions and decline to almost zero by 2018.”
realfast95
10 years ago
This should be where HSOL is playing
http://www.scmp.com/business/commodities/article/1549220/beijing-raise-rooftop-solar-power-subsidies-55pc
Beijing to raise rooftop solar power subsidies by up to 55pc
PUBLISHED : Tuesday, 08 July, 2014, 1:54am
UPDATED : Tuesday, 08 July, 2014, 1:54am
Beijing plans to increase the subsidy on power sales by rooftop solar farm developers to state-owned power distributors by up to 55 per cent, and compel the latter to act as an agent for collecting power bills if the developers directly sell to local customers.
The consensus plan was reached after a meeting two weeks ago among state-backed financial institutions, bank regulators and the National Energy Administration (NEA).
It is aimed at relieving financing difficulties that have hindered installations, and is pending final approval by Beijing, United Photovoltaics Group chief project officer Zou Deyu told a media teleconference.
"The top energy and financial authorities have agreed to the plan, but we are still waiting for the policy documents which are expected to come out soon," Zou said. United, which posted a 50 per cent rise in second-quarter power output from the first quarter, is a Hong Kong-listed unit of state-backed ports-to-property conglomerate China Merchants Group.
Currently, rooftop projects are entitled to a state subsidy of 42 fen (53 HK cents) per kilo-watt-hour (kWh) of output, on top of whatever prices developers manage to get from end-users. These are typically factories in buildings atop which solar farms are built.
If the developers fail to sell all of their output to local users, local power grid operators are obliged to buy the remainder at prices that typically vary from 35 fen to 45 fen per kWh.
Zou said the new policy will allow the rooftop projects developers to receive a total revenue of 95 fen to one yuan per kWh, matching that of ground-mounted projects. This means the rooftop subsidy could rise by 31 to 55 per cent from the current 42 fen, sharply boosting their viability.
The NEA has set a 14GW target for installations of solar farms this year, up from 12.9GW last year. Some 8GW of the target is for rooftop projects, and 6GW for ground-mounted ones, mostly in remote areas.
However, less than 2GW of rooftop projects were installed in the first five months of this year as banks were reluctant to lend owing to difficulty in getting long-term obligations from local end-users.
To address this, Zou said Beijing plans to compel local grid firms to provide the commitment and act as the collection agent in exchange for a fee.
realfast95
10 years ago
The Crazy Genius Behind Solar Roadways
http://techcrunch.com/2014/05/25/the-crazy-genius-behind-solar-roadways/
Here’s an idea crazy enough that it just might work: Pave the streets with solar-powered panels that have their own built-in heat and LED lights. That’s what Scott and Julie Brusaw hope to accomplish with their ongoing Solar Roadways project, which they just funded through a hugely popular crowdfunding campaign.
The husband-and-wife team has spent the better part of the last decade developing solar-powered modular panels that could be installed in roadways and parking lots, and would be able to collect power from the sun. Those panels could also keep streets clear of snow and ice, while illuminating them with LEDs.
Rather than paving streets and driveways with asphalt, the Solar Roadways panels would theoretically be able to decrease our nation’s dependence on fossil fuels by generating massive amounts of clean energy. Panels are made from ruggedized glass and connect to one another through a mesh network, so that even if one panel fails the system will notify repair crews that it needs to be replaced.
The whole thing is a pretty outlandish idea, and one we first wrote about back in 2010. Now, after rolling out some prototype panels in a driveway, and putting together a couple of videos to show how they work, the Solar Roadways team seems to have reached a point where it can actually start productizing and deploying its panels.
They will be helped by more than $1 million that they raised in a crowdfunding campaign on Indiegogo. (The campaign goes on for another week, for those who’d like to contribute.)
After building out and testing its Phase II prototype thanks to funding from the Federal Highway Administration, the company is hoping to deploy the panels in the wild.
While frankly it’s a pretty cool idea, the Solar Roadways team has a lot of work ahead of it if it hopes to get its panels installed in real-world situations. And given the amount of highway and road infrastructure in the U.S., it would no doubt be crazy expensive to deploy in any massive scale. But the whole thing is crazy and cool enough that it just might work.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=qlTA3rnpgzU
realfast95
10 years ago
TARGET 1 Price: 3.59 Profit: 31.5% , for a typical rally.
Stop Limit/Trailing Stop Limit: 2.49 Loss: 8.8%
Profit/Loss Ratio: 3.6 : 1 - Good
TARGET 1 POTENTIAL Good, there are 1 resistance areas on the way to Target 1.
Stocks may quickly rise to Targets when there are not many resistance areas blocking the way.
TARGET 1 RESISTANCE +13.2% at 3.09 ± 0.19, type triple+, strength 10
+31.5% at 3.59 is Target 1
TARGET 2 Price: 3.93 Profit: 44% , Profit/Loss Ratio: 5 : 1 - Excellent for an extreme rally.
realfast95
10 years ago
Right now the Solars are getting whacked because of the risk-off-correction of the overall market. Thursday is now getting ahead of the bad Friday, when no one wants to hold over the weekend. Then there is Sell-In-May where there isn't any money flow into the markets.
YGE, TSL, and SOL don't have the funds plus heavy debt.
HSOL backed by the parent isn't on the list. But since the parent just raised $400m themselves to pay debt, the parent seems to be on shaky ground itself.
JKS, SPWR, CSIQ, FSLR and maybe JASO are the big winners.
SUNE and SCTY are really utilities now.
realfast95
10 years ago
China Solar: China May Not Meet 14GW Target, Says Deutsche
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By Shuli Ren
Shares of Chinese solar companies dipped in the last month, on concerns that demand from China may be weaker than expected. Trina Solar (TSL) fell 24% from its early March high. Yingli Green Energy (YGE) slumped 32.6%. JA Solar (JASO) lost 18.4%. Canadian Solar (CSIQ) was down 24%. Jinko Solar (JKS) retreated 16.4%.
Deutsche Bank met with over 20 solar companies and policy makers in China last week and said that “the 14GW solar target would be difficult to achieve without a major near term policy change”, in a research note published today.
Beijing will have to make policy changes to meet the 14GW target, according to analysts Vishal Shah, Michael Tong, Eric Cheng and Kai-Ting Wong:
Permitting process for utility scale projects is likely to slowdown once the 6GW target is reached and relatively low returns along with concerns over counterparty risk and lack of bank financing are likely to result in only 1-2GW of DG installations vs govt target of 8GW.
Government and industry groups are working on a number of different options.
Most people think any potential change is unlikely until Q3 timeframe and it is likely that the government does not meet the 14GW target (it has happened with wind once).
Not all companies will be able to achieve their ~500MW system installation targets in 2014 since we expect provincial permitting caps to be reached by mid 2014 timeframe.
So what do we do with the China solar stocks? “Concerns are starting to get priced in”, wrote the analysts. We should expect volatile trading in the next few months but the dust may settle in June:
Given the recent weakness and negative preannouncements from Trina Solar, Yingli Green Energy, we believe investor expectations have come down. Moreover, we believe there is still some possibility that the Chinese government increases utility scale installation target, changes utility scale/DG mix or demand from markets such as the US surprises to the upside.
We acknowledge that near term fundamentals in China could remain challenging and concerns over policy uncertainty remain the biggest near term risk to solar stocks. Some of the momentum drivers such as consensus estimate revisions could remain a headwind to the group in the near term, but we expect stocks to settle down once further clarity on Chinese policy emerges in late Q2 timeframe.
We believe the Chinese government is likely to fix the current DG policy later this year, rush in markets such as the US could keep pricing relatively stable, capacity utilization rates are picking up and some companies are running at nearly 100% utilization rates.
http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmarketsdaily/2014/04/14/china-solar-china-may-not-meet-14gw-target-says-deutsche/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo
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