- What’s new: Pattern emerges suggesting relationship between
household legal stress and outcome of presidential contest
- What to watch: The spread between swing state stress and
national stress average
- March Divergence: Blue state stress on the rise, red and purple
states falling
- Beyond the horse race: National CSLI fell to its lowest level
in 12 months
LegalShield’s March Consumer Stress Legal Index (CSLI) is
starting to exhibit a pattern seen in the past five presidential
election cycles: The relationship of swing-state stress as measured
in LegalShield’s CSLI relative to the national average echoes the
results of the 2008, 2012 and 2020 presidential elections.
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Consumer stress levels by political
geography. Red states voted Republican in 2020 presidential
election, blue states voted Democratic, and purple "swing" states
were closely divided (Ariz., Ga., Mich., Nev., N.C., Pa., Wis.).
(Graphic: Business Wire)
“The trend suggests that when ‘swing state’ consumer stress, as
measured by more than 150,000 consumer legal inquiries we field
each month, dips below national stress average in October and
November, conditions favor a Democratic win,” said Matt Layton,
LegalShield senior vice president of consumer analytics. “That’s
where we are now; we’ll be watching this relationship closely.”
The converse is also true, said Layton:
“When stress in swing states rose above the national index, a
Republican was elected. We’ll watch to see how the data moves
between now and November.”
LegalShield’s CSLI was launched in 2018 and is based on a
dataset of more than 35 million consumer requests for legal
assistance since 2002. On average, LegalShield receives
approximately 150,000 contacts each month from consumers seeking
legal help in more than 90 areas of law, including key consumer
issues.
For the first time, LegalShield broke out consumer stress levels
on a politically geographic basis, separating red, blue, and purple
swing states. For the purposes of the current data view,
LegalShield classified states based on the outcome of the 2020
election. Swing states in March’s study are Arizona, Georgia,
Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
“LegalShield’s CSLI tracks consumer actions as opposed to
polling data or sentiment surveys, providing a unique view of the
economic experience in red, blue and purple states,” said Warren
Schlichting, LegalShield CEO. “These potential voters are calling
our provider attorneys because they need help, and it’s striking to
see that blue states have a noticeably higher stress level, red
state a lower level, and swing states track closely to the national
level. And in March we see the lines diverge to a pronounced
split.”
The data reveals a noticeable jump in stress in blue states to
10 points higher than red states. Stress in red and purple states
fell in March.
Consumer stress rose in blue states that voted Democrat in 2020
by 2.4 points to 66.8, above the national level and 10.3 points
(18%) higher than red states. The blue states have exhibited higher
stress than red and swing states every month since October
2006.
In contrast, red states experienced stress relief in March by
5.5 points to 56.5, below the national index.
The swing states also reported a drop in stress of 4.5 points to
60.0, just slightly below the national index.
Nationally, the CSLI fell to its lowest level in 12 months,
dropping 2.6 points to 61.4. All three sub-indices that make up the
flagship index, Bankruptcy, Consumer Finance and Foreclosure,
declined in March.
The Consumer Finance Index, which tracks approximately 60 areas
of law related to personal finances, is down 1.2 points to 99.7,
its lowest level since January 2020, just before the COVID-19
pandemic.
The Bankruptcy Index declined 1.9 points in March to 30.0. Up
21.0% year over year, the Bankruptcy Index historically leads
actual bankruptcy filings as reported by the U.S. court system by
two quarters, with a .98 correlation.
The Foreclosure Index fell 3.9 points to 36.2, down 1.4% year
over year and below the two-year average of 39.5.
The current CSLI reading is in line with macroeconomic
indicators trending in a positive direction. The latest jobs report
shows the U.S. economy added 303,000 jobs in March, well outpacing
economic forecasts. At the same time, unemployment remained
relatively steady at 3.8%. However, the annual rate of inflation
came in higher than economists expected in March with the consumer
price index at 3.5%. As a result, economists do not expect interest
rates to ease at the Federal Reserve meeting in June which could
continue to put pressure on consumers' debt.
Since its inception, the CSLI has been a 60–90-day leading
indicator of the closely watched Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
with an inverse correlation level of -0.85. The CCI reported just a
0.1 point downward change to 104.7 in March.
About the LegalShield Consumer Stress Legal Index:
As part of LegalShield’s mission to ensure every person has
equal access to justice, we mine our data for insights policymakers
can use to make a real, positive impact in their decision making.
Released monthly, the LegalShield Consumer Stress Legal Index is
comprised of three sub-indices which reflect the demand for various
legal services. LegalShield’s dataset includes more than 35 million
consumer requests for legal assistance since 2002, averaging
approximately 150,000 calls received monthly. The CSLI uncovers the
daily challenges people are facing and provides actionable
intelligence to help policymakers and industry leaders bridge those
gaps.
About LegalShield:
For more than 50 years, LegalShield has provided everyday
Americans with easy and affordable access to legal advice, counsel,
protection, and representation. Serving millions, LegalShield is
one of the world's largest platforms for legal, identity, and
reputation management services protecting individuals and
businesses across North America. Founded in 1972, LegalShield, and
its privacy management product, IDShield, has provided individuals,
families, businesses, and employers with tools and services needed
to affordably live a just and secure life. Through technology and
innovation, LegalShield is disrupting the traditional legal system
and transforming how and where people receive legal guidance and
services, with access to thousands of qualified, trusted attorneys
and law firms. LegalShield and IDShield are products of Pre-Paid
Legal Services, Inc. To learn more about LegalShield and IDShield,
visit LegalShield.com and IDShield.com.
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version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240423795718/en/
LegalShield Media Contact: Hollon Kohtz, Director of
Communications hollonkohtz@pplsi.com