martingale
15 years ago
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AIG shares tumble 15%
Shares fall after Bernstein Research says AIG's loss reserve is $11 billion short and cuts the insurance giant's price target by 40%.
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See all CNNMoney.com RSS FEEDS (close) By Hibah Yousuf, CNNMoney.com staff reporter
November 30, 2009: 6:37 PM ET
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NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Shares of AIG plunged nearly 15% Monday after an analyst hacked the insurance giant' price target 40% in a research note on worries about the company's loss reserves.
AIG (AIG, Fortune 500)'s stock fell 14.71% to $28.40, after trading at session low of $28.04. The shares finished down almost 50% off their 52 week-high of $55.90.
In a research note, Bernstein Research analyst Todd Bault told investors he cut AIG's price target to $12 from $20 and said the insurer's "loss reserves are significantly deficient again, much sooner than we would have forecast two years ago."
Bault projected that AIG's loss reserves are short $11 billion, with $10 billion concentrated in "long-tailed" casualty lines: $1.8 billion in workers compensation, $5.6 billion in general liability and $2.6 billion in professional liability.
The $11 billion deficiency equates to about $10 per share and was a "big surprise" to Bault, who said the implications are "significant."
"AIG shareholders and the Federal government face considerably more uncertainty than they may have anticipated: recall that AIG's insurance units were not generally considered to be part of its problem. In fact, early in AIG's downfall, borrowing surplus from AIG's insurance units was considered a possibility for saving the holding company," the Bernstein Research note said.
After having received $82 billion in taxpayer-funded bailout funds, the insurance company is now essentially owned by the government.
Note: Those holding AVF and AFF need to consider the implications of these new reports as the essential long-term funding for the dividends/interest was to come from the "core" business itself which now appears shakey....also they have the "right" to suspend quarterly payments for 10 years and who knows if that might happen in the fallout. Apparently the secure AIG property and casualty groups are running sub-par now and some have predicted a flight of customers from AIG insurance deals.
Nice profits have been made on both AVF and AFF over the past
12 months with dividend payments and speaking for myself I don't like the looks of where this could be headed in terms of any meaningful stability or assurances from AIG corporate.
Good luck to All.
mlkrborn
16 years ago
$6.63 still higher than $2.00 lowest level; yet legal challenges mount! Check out !
Stull, Stull & Brody Announces Class Action Lawsuit on Behalf of AIG International Group, Inc. 7.70% Series A5 Junior Subordinated Debentures (NYSE: AVF) Investors
Monday October 27, 1:15 pm ET
NEW YORK, NY--(MARKET WIRE)--Oct 27, 2008 -- Notice is hereby given that Stull, Stull & Brody filed a lawsuit on October 27, 2008 in the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York seeking class action status on behalf of purchasers of 7.70% Series A5 Junior Subordinated Debentures (AVF - News) of American International Group, Inc. ("AIG" or the "Company") pursuant and/or traceable to the Company's public offering on December 11, 2007 (the "Offering").
ADVERTISEMENT
If you purchased or acquired AIG 7.70% Series A5 Junior Subordinated Debentures pursuant and/or traceable to the Offering, you may apply to the Court to serve as lead plaintiff in the action no later than December 9, 2008.
The Complaint asserts claims pursuant to Sections 11, 12(a)(2) and 15 of the Securities Act of 1933 (the "Securities Act"), 15 U.S.C. Sections 77k, 77l and 77o against certain officers and directors of AIG and certain Underwriters of the Offering. The Underwriters include Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (NYSE:C - News), Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. (MER - News), Morgan Stanley & Co. Inc. (NYSE:MS - News), UBS Securities LLC (UBS - News), Wachovia Capital Markets, LLC (WB - News), Bank of America Securities LLC (NYSE:BAC - News), Bear, Stearns & Co. Inc., The Bear Stearns Companies, LLC, RBC Capital Markets and Wells Fargo Securities (NYSE:WFC - News).
The Complaint asserts that AIG's Prospectus issued in connection with the Offering contained material misstatements and omissions, which Plaintiffs and the proposed Class relied upon to their detriment. The representations made in the Company's Prospectus were materially false and misleading because at the time of the Offering AIG was already suffering from several adverse factors that were not revealed and/or adequately addressed in the Prospectus. These factors include, but are not limited to, the fact that, contrary to the representations contained in the Prospectus: (i) AIG did not have a relatively small exposure to loss associated with credit swaps sold by certain variable interest entities; (ii) AIG's exposure to loss associated with credit protection assumed by AIG Financial Products Corp. and AIG trading Croup Inc., including their respective subsidiaries ("AIGFP") on portfolios of loans or debt securities was not remote, even in severe recessionary market scenarios; and (iii) AIG's financial statements and financial information, as contained in and incorporated by reference into the Prospectus, were not presented in conformity with generally accepted accounting principles ("GAAP").
Joe Stocks
16 years ago
AVF/AFF - AIG bond prices may overstate risk - CreditSights
Fri Oct 3, 2008 5:18pm EDT
NEW YORK, Oct 3 (Reuters) - The distressed level at which American International Group's (AIG.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) debt is trading may be reflecting too much risk as the company's planned asset sales should raise ample funds to protect bondholders, CreditSights said Friday.
Bonds trading between 50 and 60 cents on the dollar have a "significant amount of value given our projection of nearly 1.0 times asset coverage even in our most draconian scenario," analyst Rob Haines said in a note.
For example, AIG's 5.375 percent bond due 2011 traded at 59 cents on the dollar on Friday. It had traded at 95 cents in early September, according to MarketAxess.
CreditSights carried out a sum-of-the-parts valuation of AIG, based on market comparables and metrics from recent transactions. The valuation was done after AIG said it is planning to refocus on core property and casualty insurance and put all its other businesses up for sale.
AIG was bailed out by the government last month after a severe liquidity crisis. The company was given access to an $85 billion loan facility to enable it to meet short-term financing needs while it prepares asset sales.
Newly appointed Chief Executive Ed Liddy said the company is not in a fire sale position and will take the time needed to maximize value for its units. For more, see [ID: nN03321593]
CreditSights estimates that the company's general insurance business is worth $95.2 billion, its life insurance and retirement services business is worth $147.7 billion, its financial services business, including its aircraft leasing unit, is worth $9 billion and its asset management operations are worth $3.6 billion, said Haines.
That valuation, which assumes limited stress in the financing markets, comes to a total of $255.5 billion. The research firm also prepared a scenario that adjusts estimates to allow for current difficult market conditions.
Following the disclosure that AIG has drawn down $61 billion of its loan facility, CreditSights updated its estimate of the company's pro forma debt structure.
While it is difficult to break out the full amount of debt associated with the company's insurance units, the debt related to other businesses is disclosed in various filings, said the analyst. If AIG succeeds in selling those businesses, it will be able to offload the associated debt that had been consolidated on its balance sheet.
That debt totals $111.2 billion, or including the borrowings from the government facility, $172.2 billion.
"The main takeaway of our updated analysis is that our estimated value for AIG's businesses still provides ample asset coverage for AIG debt after valuing each segment on a standalone basis as well as after haircutting our valuations by as much as 40 percent," Haines said.
AIG may be forced to accept discounts from full market value on its sales given the weak financing and operating environment, he said.
"Factoring in the value of the collateral posted on various derivative transactions by assuming that some of it flows back to AIG after the derivatives roll off or the company gets upgraded, asset coverage could be even more robust," he said.
The chance of a near-term upgrade from Standard & Poor's fell Friday after the agency said it has revised the outlook on AIG ratings to "negative" from "developing."
S&P analyst Rodney Clark said there is risk that the company will not succeed in offloading assets. At the same time, the smaller and less-diversified company expected to emerge after unit sales is facing higher debt-servicing costs on the government loan.
The agency has an "A-minus" rating on AIG (AIG.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), four notches above speculative, or "junk" status.
The cost of insuring AIG debt against possible default fell slightly Friday, although credit default swaps continued to trade at distressed levels.
CDS were trading at 27.5 percent upfront, or $2.75 million annually to insure $10 million for five years, plus annual payments of $500,000, according to Markit Intraday.
CDS trade upfront when default fears rise and sellers of protection want to be paid more at the outset of the contract. (Reporting by Ciara Linnane; Editing by Dan Grebler)
http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews/idUSN0336239320081003
martingale
16 years ago
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littlefeets
16 years ago
An overview of AIG's Business
In the United States, AIG companies are the largest underwriters of commercial and industrial insurance and AIG American General is a top-ranked life insurer.
Insurance
Life insurance
AIG owns AIG American General, a life insurance company based in Houston, Texas.
Auto insurance
AIG sells auto insurance through AIG Direct. Policies include auto, motorcycle, recreation vehicle and commercial vehicle insurance. AIG purchased the remaining 39% that it did not own of online auto insurance specialist 21st Century Insurance in 2007 for $749 million.[23]
International holdings
Australia
AIG Life (Australia) underwrites over one million life insurance policies in Australia held through industry pension plans. The general insurance arm offers mainly corporate insurance and is among the top 10 insurers in Australia.[24]
China
AIG owns 19.8% of People's Insurance Company of China (PICC) through direct and indirect holdings. PICC P&C[clarify] is China's largest insurer of casualty insurance.[citation needed]
Hong Kong
AIG's American International Assurance operations include 2.2 million policy holders.
India
AIG is the minority partner with the Tata Group in two insurance companies in India, holding 26 percent each in Tata AIG Life Insurance Co Ltd and Tata AIG General Insurance Co Ltd.
Philippines
AIG owns Philippine American Life and General Insurance Company (Philamlife), the Philippines biggest insurance company. It has a total asset of P170 billion ($3.6 billion). Philamlife serves over a million customers and maintains the widest network of over 200 offices and sales agencies nationwide.
Singapore
AIA Singapore is a wholly owned subsidiary of AIG in Singapore. It has more than two million policies in force, more than 3,800 financial services consultants and 800 employees in its Singapore offices. General manager Mark O'Dell resigned on September 18, 2008 in response to policy holders queuing up to cash in their policies in the face of concern of the future of AIG.
United Kingdom
AIG operates in the UK with the brands AIG UK, AIG Life and AIG Direct. It has about 3,000 employees, and sponsors the Manchester United football club.
In response to redemption demands, AIG Life (UK) suspended redemptions of its AIG Premier Bond money market fund on September 19, 2008 in order to provide an orderly withdrawal of assets.
Insurance holdings by state
California
AIG owns more than two dozen companies licensed to offer insurance in California, according to the California Insurance Commissioner. They include 21st Century Casualty Co.; 21st Century Insurance Co.; AIG Casualty Co.; AIG Centennial Insurance Co.; AIG Premier Insurance Co.; AIU Insurance Co.; American General Indemnity Co.; American Home Assurance Co.; American International Insurance Co. of California Inc.; Birmingham Fire Insurance Co. of Pennsylvania; Commerce And Industry Insurance Co.; GE Auto & Home Assurance Co.; GE Indemnity Insurance Co.; Granite State Insurance Co.; Hartford Steam Boiler Inspection and Insurance Co.; Insurance Co. of the State of Pennsylvania; Landmark Insurance Co.; National Union Fire Insurance Co. of Pittsburgh, Pa; New Hampshire Insurance Co.; Pacific Assurance; Putnam Reinsurance Co.; Transatlantic Reinsurance Co.; United Guaranty Commercial Insurance Co. of North Carolina; United Guaranty Credit Insurance Co.; United Guaranty Residential Insurance Co.; and Yosemite Insurance Co.
Pennsylvania
Twenty AIG subsidiaries are licensed to do business in Pennsylvania, including National Union Fire Insurance Co. in Pittsburgh, believed to be the second largest AIG underwriter in the nation. Other subsidiaries include New Hampshire Insurance, Insurance Company of the State of Pennsylvania, Granite State Insurance and New Hampshire Indemnity.
West Virginia
AIG writes property and casualty insurance, life and annuity, and workers' compensation insurance in West Virginia. It has 4.7% of the life insurance market and 2.7% of the property and casualty market, as of the end of 2007.
Holdings
Mortgage lending
Since 2001 AIG has owned American General Finance Inc., an Evansville, Indiana firm with $29 billion of mortgage backed assets and more than 1,500 branches nationwide.
Aerospace
AIG Tower in Hong KongAIG owns International Lease Finance Corporation (ILFC) , the world's largest aircraft leasing company, with hundreds of aircraft including the full range of Boeing and Airbus jetliners, as well as the McDonnell Douglas MD-11 and MD-80 Series. Total assets under lease are $55 billion as of June 30, 2008. Estimates of its value range from $5 billion to $14 billion based on a comparison with rivals.
AIG is one of the owners of London City Airport, along with GE and Credit Suisse; it was purchased for £750m in 2006.
Real estate
AIG/Lincoln was established in 1997 as a strategic partnership between AIG Global Real Estate Investment Corporation, New York, a subsidiary of AIG - American International Group, New York, and Lincoln Property Company, a Dallas based commercial real estate manager.[37].[38]. It has developed or is currently developing over 2.2 million square meters of real estate in Poland, Hungary, Romania, Czech Republic, Germany, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, Austria and Russia.
Telecommunications
As of August 2007, AIG Investments (through its member company AIG Capital Partners, Inc.) acquired a 90% stake in Bulgarian Telecommunications Company (BTC) from Viva Ventures Holding GmbH and certain minority shareholders. At the time, the estimated value of BTC was 1.7 billion euros ($2.3 billion).
Ports
As of March 16, 2007, AIG Investments, a division of AIG, completed the purchase of 100% of the stock of P&O Ports North America from Dubai-based Dubai Ports World. At the time, the estimated price was $700m, though AIG did not disclose the exact figure because the number was too low to be deemed significant to the company's asset base.
On July 2, 2007, Marine Terminals Corporation became part of the AIG Global Investment Group through its acquisition by AIG Highstar Capital. MTC provides the shipping community with a comprehensive network of stevedoring, terminal operating and related cargo handling services. Terms were not disclosed.
Skiing
AIG owns Stowe Mountain Resort. AIG's connection to Stowe started when C.V. Starr, the company's founder, invested in the resort in 1946. It is AIG's sole ski business. A $300m, 10 year expansion was started in 2005.
Other holdings
AIG owns Ocean Finance[43] a United Kingdom based company providing home owner loans, mortgages and remortgages.
AIG is the principal sponsor of English football team Manchester United and the Japan Open Tennis Championships.
Subsidiary Holdings
AIG American General Life Companies
AIG Annuity Insurance Company
AIG UK Limited
AIG Financial Products Corp.
AIG Hawaii Insurance Company, Inc.
AIG Investments
Utilities, Inc.
AIG Retirement Services, Inc.
AIG SunAmerica Life Assurance Company
The Variable Annuity Life Insurance Company
Allied World Assurance Company Holdings, Ltd
American General Finance Corporation
American Life Insurance Company
Brazos Capital Management, L.P., a mutual fund manager[45]
HSB Group, Inc., a specialty insurance company[46]
International Lease Finance Corporation
Lexington Insurance Company
SunAmerica Ventures, Inc.
AIG Financial Advisors
Transatlantic Holdings, Inc.
Transatlantic Re (Brasil) Ltda.
Transatlantic Reinsurance Company (NYSE: TRH), 58% owned by AIG
United Guaranty Corporation