By Nick Timiraos and Julia-Ambra Verlaine
The Federal Reserve accelerated previously announced purchases
of Treasury securities on Friday in a bid to prevent strains in
financial markets from worsening.
The Fed took the unusual step after offers to provide vast sums
of short-term loans a day earlier were met with tepid demand,
indicating ongoing challenges in restoring smooth functioning in
the market for U.S. government debt.
Stocks rallied Friday, in part on signs of progress in Congress
toward passing government measures to support the economy. But Wall
Street faced beneath-the-radar pressure as financial firms
scrambled to exit complex bond market trades that pushed up
long-term U.S. Treasury borrowing rates, which typically go down in
a crisis.
The Fed announced Friday morning that it would purchase later in
the day roughly half of some $80 billion in Treasury securities
that it had said Thursday would be purchased over the next
month.
The Treasury market has faced "highly unusual
disruptions...associated with the coronavirus outbreak," the New
York Fed, which conducts market operations for the central bank,
said Friday. The Fed said it stood ready to accelerate other
planned purchases as needed.
"The Treasury market is the foundation, the building blocks for
the rest of the market, and the foundation is cracked," said Rick
Rieder, chief investment officer of global fixed-income at
BlackRock Inc. "What the Fed did was right in every regard."
Disruptions to funding that first appeared Wednesday and
continued Friday suggested the Fed's promise on Thursday to provide
essentially unlimited amounts of short-term loans secured by
government debt hadn't fully resolved issues plaguing the Treasury
market.
Friday's decision by the Fed to accelerate purchases of short-
and long-term government securities "increases the odds that we
will see a formal and potentially larger" bond-buying program soon,
said Roberto Perli, an analyst at research firm Cornerstone
Macro.
The Fed's rate-setting committee is set to meet on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Many Wall Street analysts expect the Fed will follow the
prior week's emergency half-point rate cut -- which took the
benchmark federal-funds rate to between 1% and 1.25% -- with
another cut that takes the rate to near zero.
This week's actions occurred during the central bank's customary
pre-meeting quiet period, limiting how much the Fed said publicly
about its actions.
"I think they're just trying to hold down the fort until next
Wednesday, " said Jim Vogel, interest-rate strategist at FHN
Financial. "There's a corner of my heart that has sympathy for all
the Fed folks trying to come up with the best recommendations. I
hope it leads them to do more than they think they need to do."
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has signaled the central bank will do
as much as it can to support market functioning and the broader
economy during what could be a wrenching slowdown in activity
intended to prevent the spread of the coronavirus.
But Fed officials have also acknowledged there are limits to how
much monetary policy can help stabilize confidence, and analysts
have warned that markets could remain volatile until public testing
for the coronavirus has revealed the full extent of its spread in
the U.S.
Rising market volatility reflects a constellation of challenges.
They include business continuity plans by Wall Street banks that
have led trading teams to work from multiple sites or remotely;
post-crisis regulations that have made individual large banks more
resilient but restricted their ability to quickly warehouse assets
being sold by financial firms; and hedge funds caught up in bond
trades that became extremely unprofitable when volatility soared,
leading to more volatility as those trades unwind.
On Thursday afternoon, the Fed attempted to alleviate strains by
offering up to $1.5 trillion in short-term loans called repurchase
agreements, or repo, to financial institutions. Those offerings saw
comparatively tepid demand, with the Fed ultimately extending
$119.5 billion.
Fixed-income traders at large banks have described the Fed's
recent actions as positive, but say they fall short of resolving
the fundamental issues: balance sheet constraints and archaic
financial plumbing that prevents a rapid, efficient transfer of
cash to those that need it, including hedge funds and other
investors.
"The repo patch applied by the Fed midday yesterday will take
several days to work through the system," said Mr. Vogel. "Like
last Tuesday's intermeeting rate cut, it's designed to make things
less worse rather than better."
The Fed also plans to revamp its scheduled purchases of $80
billion in Treasury securities over the next month. Since October,
the Fed has been buying $20 billion in securities of varying
maturities and $60 billion concentrated in bills, which have
maturities of one year or less. On Thursday, the Fed announced it
would try to ease funding strains by shifting all $80 billion
toward securities across varying maturities.
Readjusting the Fed's planned purchases "just one day after they
released the original calendar is a sign that they are trying to
get it right, but they have not yet figured out what is the right
thing to do," said Lou Brien, a market strategist at DRW
Trading.
Liquidity in longer-term Treasurys and those issued some time
ago is particularly poor because there is already less demand for
those bonds, traders say. The prices of longer-term bonds also go
up and down more for any given amount of change in their yield,
making them riskier to hold.
Michael Lorizio, a senior trader at Manulife Investment
Management, said the price gap between what dealers were willing to
buy longer-term Treasurys for and what they were billing to sell
them for had only increased Friday morning.
Mr. Lorizio said he had tried to sell some older bonds with near
30-year maturities and found the price dealers were willing to buy
them for was lower than what was indicated on his computer screen,
a sign of market illiquidity.
Many funds that include a mix of riskier assets, like
investment-grade bonds or stocks, along with Treasurys are
experiencing large outflows. In response, some managers appear to
be selling Treasurys because, even under these circumstances, they
are still easier to off load than those other assets.
Recent volatility has put special pressure on so-called relative
value traders, which seek to profit from small differences in
prices of two very similar assets. Those traders have also helped
the U.S. government digest a large supply of Treasury securities
amid ballooning budget deficits.
The upshot is that a messy unwinding of those trades could
amplify market volatility, put some hedge funds and other traders
in significant stress, and explain this week's unusual dislocations
in the Treasury market.
--Sam Goldfarb and Gregory Zuckerman contributed to this
article.
Write to Nick Timiraos at nick.timiraos@wsj.com and Julia-Ambra
Verlaine at Julia.Verlaine@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 13, 2020 17:33 ET (21:33 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2020 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.