WellCare Health Plans Inc. (WCG) plans to drop its Medicare Advantage private fee-for-service contracts in 2010, a move that will affect more than 40% of members of the troubled managed-care company's Medicare Advantage health plans, slice revenue and likely pressure earnings next year.

A WellCare spokeswoman had no immediate comment on the reason for the move, which follows the Tampa company's broad expansion of its Medicare Advantage PFFS offering last year and a recent government decision to cut payments to private insurers' Medicare Advantage plans in 2010. It also sets the stage for competitors to pick up affected WellCare customers.

Another managed-care company, Coventry Health Care Inc. (CVH), indicated last week it likely will make a similar move regarding its Medicare Advantage PFFS plans, citing the Medicare rate cuts and rising medical costs.

WellCare said in a release that its decision is not related to previously disclosed investigations of the company being conducted by government agencies and a special board committee.

WellCare, which provides Medicare and Medicaid managed-care programs as well as Medicare prescription-drug plans, said the move not to renew the Medicare Advantage private-fee-for-service contracts affects about 110,000 of its 2.5 million members overall. The decision, however, affects at least 40% of its Medicare Advantage members; they will have access to their benefits until Jan. 1, 2010.

Medicare Advantage health plans overall generated some $2.46 billion of WellCare's nearly $6.5 billion in premium revenue in 2008, according to the company's annual report. Members of WellCare's Medicare Advantage health maintenance organizations, Medicare prescription drug plans and Medicaid plans are not affected by the company's decision, WellCare said.

"Our intention to withdraw from Medicare Advantage PFFS was a difficult decision, and we regret that in 2010 we will no longer be able to offer these plans," Heath Schiesser, WellCare president and chief executive, said in a statement.

Stifel Nicolaus analyst Thomas Carroll said the decision, not that surprising given that most Medicare Advantage PFFS plans are essentially being legislated away as of 2011, will probably lop off at least $1 billion of WellCare's revenue next year. The question, he said, is whether WellCare can reduce overhead costs associated with that business just as quickly as it loses the revenue next year.

"My guess is probably not," he said in an interview. He also wondered if there would be a material change in WellCare's company wide medical costs as a percentage of premium revenue, or medical cost ratio, as a result of dropping the plans.

"At first glance, 2010 earnings, it's going to be hard to show growth," Carroll said, predicting that Wall Street estimates for WellCare's 2010 earnings will be reduced.

WellCare reports first-quarter financial results next Monday and may shed more light on the decision.

Carroll noted that Coventry Health Care Chairman and Chief Executive Allen Wise indicated on a conference call last week that Coventry was unlikely to pursue significant Medicare Advantage PFFS business next year. Wise, citing Medicare's rate reduction and rising medical costs, said that "the result is that any product offered would likely not be competitive or profitable."

WellCare in its 2008 annual report filed in March noted market pressures. "Some of our competitors may be better positioned than us to withstand rate compression," it said.

These moves by WellCare and Coventry could leave 500,000 Medicare beneficiaries up for grabs come open enrollment season in the fall, Carroll said. Affected WellCare members may enroll with the government's traditional Medicare program, with another Medicare Advantage provider or with a WellCare Medicare Advantage HMO plan.

Insurers' Medicare Advantage private-fee-for-service plans offer senior citizens access to any physician or hospital served by the traditional Medicare health program and that agree to bill the companies.

A new law, while not officially eliminating the PFFS plans, will largely do so as of 2011, Carroll said. That will likely set up competition for even more beneficiaries.

"I feel like there's another land grab coming in Medicare Advantage," the analyst said.

In 2008, WellCare expanded the number of counties in which it offered Medicare Advantage PFFS plans from 793 to 1,590 in 43 states and Washington, D.C., although it withdrew from three states in 2009.

In February of this year, the company, already burdened by a Medicaid-fraud probe, said it was suspending new enrollment in its Medicare health plans after the government had ordered it to do so. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services cited noncompliance, deficiencies in Medicare prescription-drug contracts and misleading beneficiaries.

WellCare shares closed Monday at $15.62. After a slip in after-hours trading, it recently hit that level again.

-By Dinah Wisenberg Brin, Dow Jones Newswires

215-656-8285; dinah.brin@dowjones.com