Takeover rumours and profit surprises dominate the week
09/21/2006 Takeover rumours and profit surprises dominate the week
15th September - Mining sector falls again
With a dearth of company news, London's benchmark stocks are struggling to regain momentum this morning, as the Footsie hovers at opening levels. Much of the movement was provided by broker comment, as UBS lifted Standard Chartered to the top of the heap, upping its rating to "buy" and its price target to 1,550p.
SG Securities has lowered its stance on fixed line telecoms giant BT Group to "hold" from "buy" but added that it expects the group to maintain its recent rally. Lehman Brothers also repeated its "overweight" advice on Marks & Spencer and Kingfisher adding that the cooler weather in August should have benefited fashion retailers.
Wm Morrison was leading the risers ahead of interim figures due next week, as UBS and SG Securities both stuck with their "buy" advice on the shares. Meanwhile supermarket chain Tesco shrugged off reports it is in crisis talks with the Thai government as it attempts to see off proposals that could scupper ambitious expansion plans.
Shareholders in BP are believed to be demanding the group provides assurances that situations like the Prudhoe oil field leak and last years Texas refinery explosion will not happen again. The shares fell sharply today. The biggest losses today though came from the mining sector after gold prices hit a three month low. They dominated the fallers with Vedanta, Kazakhmys, Lonmin and Xstrata all featuring heavily.
18th September - Big fall for CSR on profit warning
A resurgent mining sector helped propel London's top flight shares forward through the morning, while buoyant oil stocks also supported the rise. Kazakhmys led the risers with Vedanta Resources, Xstrata and Antofagasta also racking up strong gains as Gold prices stabilised after falling to three month lows last week. Oil issues moved higher as crude prices stabilised from their recent trough, climbing 37 cents to $63.70 a barrel. BG Group and BP were both higher in early deals. Reports this morning suggested BP was planning a total review of its operations following the refinery explosion at its Texas operation last year. The move is designed to reassure shareholders over safety measures.
PartyGaming picked up after tumbling last Friday on news Vienna-listed peer BWin was suspended after Bavaria revoked its online gaming licence. Its co-chief executives were also detained following alleged violation of French gaming laws.
Lehman Brothers weighed on Pearson, as the broker downgraded shares in the publisher to "underweight" from "equal-weight" citing valuation grounds. The high street was also strengthening with Marks & Spencer, Next and Kingfisher all featuring among the top risers. On the second line, department store group Debenhams says sales for the year to August rose by 6.6%. Like-for-like sales were up by 0.5%. Gross margins continue to improve and underlying profit is in line with expectations. MFI Furniture also confirmed discussions are at an advance stage for the disposal of its retail operations to Merchant Equity Partners, though it adds there is not yet certainty as to the final terms or timing of any transaction.
Blue tooth chip specialist CSR slumped after it revised down its third quarter revenue estimates to between $210m and $215m. Fourth quarter revenues will be 5% below the lower end of new third quarter forecasts.
19th September - Power suppliers hit hard
After a cautious start London's blue chips gave way through the morning to fall into hefty losses, as infrastructure concerns knocked the power suppliers. A warning from nuclear power group British Energy that it was cutting annual output targets after the close yesterday sent the shares tumbling in morning trades. The company had already flagged up cracked boiler pipes at its Hunterston B power station but British Energy said delays in retuning them to operation would lead to lower output for the year. The news led Drax sharply lower too on fears that infrastructure in UK operations has been underinvested.
Copper miner Kazakhmys pulled ahead after its interim this morning. Earnings more than doubled in the half-year to $1.32 per share and it forecast higher volume production and prices of copper for the year. Chief Executive YK Cha is also stepping down at the end of the year for personal reasons, Kazakhmys added.
Bucking the trend, oil majors BP, BG Group, Royal Dutch Shell and Cairn Energy all moved higher. US light sweet crude is up 14 cents to $63.94 a barrel. The gains come despite news that BP has been forced to delay for 18 months the start-up of oil and gas production at its Mexican operation Thunder Horse, while Shell remains under more pressure from the Russians over its Sakhalin 2 project.
Morgan Stanley upgraded HSBC to "overweight" from "equal-weight" as the broker said there are a number of positives. However the news failed to help HSBC as the worsening sentiment in the market dragged on most stocks. On the second line, John Laing has agreed a recommended cash bid worth 355p per share from Henderson Equity Partners. The offer values Laing at approximately £886.9m.
20th September - Takeover rumours around Man Group
The FTSE has been volatile this morning, oscillating around last night's close ahead of tonight's FOMC meeting and the news of a bloodless coup in Thailand. The US decision on interest rates is due this evening around 7,17pm.
There were few surprises on the results front, with fund specialist Resolution posting a first-half profit of £115.9m, just above market forecasts, and increasing the dividend by 15%. Resolution, which recently acquired Abbey National's life businesses, added it is on track to deliver the £38m cost savings targeted from the merger of Britannic and Resolution last year. Woolworths rose despite news of a first-half loss of £64.9m as like-for-like sales fell by 8.3%. The group said in the seven weeks since the half-year like-for-like sales are down 3.5%, an improved trend driven by in-store merchandising.
Elsewhere, shares in Man Group surged ahead early on after press reports suggested US financial giant Goldman Sachs was looking at the hedge fund manager. The shares drifted back midmorning but were still up over 1% before lunch.
Utilities continue to be in focus, and British Energy remains weak after yesterday's comments over the extra maintenance work necessary after it found some cracked tubes. Goldman Sachs repeated its "sell" advice on Drax Group, adding it to its Pan-Europe Conviction Sell List, arguing that earnings are likely to peak next year. In other broker notes, Corus was upgraded to "overweight" from "equal-weight" arguing that the group should strike a value-enhancing deal at some point in the coming months.
The miners suffered further big falls during the morning as Gold extended losses, and many stocks moved to near three month lows. Many analysts have remarked on attractive valuations in the sector but then trend remains down for now.
21st September - Stunning move from Wm. Morrison
After yesterday's solid performance in the US following the announcement of unchanged rates, London's blue chips drifted back as the oil majors fell again following another big slide in crude prices in New York last night. BG, Royal Dutch Shell and BP suffered as US light crude for October delivery, which expired last night, fell $1.20 to settle at $60.46 a barrel after a surprise rise in weekly US distillate inventories. Meanwhile, press reports have BP and Exxon Mobil, its minority partner on the Thunder Horse deep sea oil project, at odds over how to respond to mounting problems with the Gulf of Mexico oilfield.
There were however several bright spots in the market, and Wm Morrison topped the risers with a stunning rise of 6% by mid-morning after it announced a return to profit for the full year, as expected, and said it is on track with its targeted profit improvements. Pre-tax profit for the 25 weeks ended 23 July was £134.2m versus a loss of £82.1m a year earlier on flat turnover at £5.85bn. Operating profit was £163.8m, up from £50.7m before exceptional costs last time, but it was the continued improvement in like-for-like sales that impressed the market again. The miners also saw sporadic buying, with Anglo American in the forefront on vague talk of stakebuilding. Other risers were Cable & wireless following a statement indicating improved margins in its businesses in former UK colonies, and Compass Group and Reuters on more takeover talk.
In other results news, publishing house Daily Mail & General Trust said it expects to achieve "modest" progress for the full financial year despite the launch costs of its new London free newspaper and the weaker US dollar. Nightclub operator Luminar said it has been seeing improving trends since its last statement in July with current trading in line with expectations. During the first half to August like for like sales were down 7.5% across core businesses. Oil explorer Premier Oil served up a hefty rise in first half profit, following a surge in oil and gas prices.
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