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Centamin Shares Collapse - Time for Bulletin Board Morons to apologise to me. Still a sell

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I first tipped Egyptian gold miner Centamin (LSE:CEY) at 8p on t1ps.com. I advised readers to sell at 137p. I called it bloody brilliantly. In the summer at 67p to 75p I repeatedly urged folks to sell warning that the new Islamofascist rulers of Egypt had changed the game. I was greeted with heaps of abuse from Bulletin Board commentators (mainly here on ADVFN). Well arseholes the shares have almost halved ( again) today to 27p so: a) you lose money and b) it is time for you to apologise. You can post your apologies on the comments section below just as you posted the abuse in the summer.

Even four weeks ago you could have got out at 69p and I warned anyone who had half a brain cell to do so. You can read why here

Suggestions that I had a vendetta or did not know what I was talking about or was just anti Arab etc were just wrong. Several folks suggested that I was so bad at share tipping that they took my article as a cue to buy shed loads more shares. I am sorry to sound vindictive but since you insulted me with such venom I hope that those who wrote such things remortgaged their wife and filled their bloody boots.  I am sure your kids will understand why Santa did not pay a visit this year. If not show them your smart arse BB posts from the summer.

To other shareholders I have to say that you should have listened but I feel sorry for you. I also feel sorry for a management team that has done nothing wrong but doing business in Islamofascist hell holes is not fun. It has risks. Life would have been simpler if Sukari had been in a democratic state where there is a stable legal system and free speech. Somewhere like Israel.

So what has gone wrong with Centamin now? Everything. Firstly the company has received an illegal retrospective claim from the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation for $65 million for fuel supplied over the last few years. Ooops. Fuel supply has stopped until the claimed amount is paid and discussions are ongoing with the Ministry’s support but fuel supplies have reached critical levels.

Secondly, gold exports have hit a stumbling block with customs officials arbitrarily seeking prior approval from the Minister of Finance, which is not yet forthcoming. Thus, Sukari has been placed on care-and-maintenance due to the lack of diesel, shortfall in working capital and inability to export.

And we still have no firm resolution on the court ruling which appeared to take this asset away altogether.

All in all this is a total nightmare.  But I told you so. Back in October I asked if it was Game Over – you can read that piece HERE

Net cash and realisable assets are just under 10p a share (and clearly falling) and the worst case scenario is that this is the support level. The best case scenario is that operations resume (minus the $65 million) and with the new fuel tariff regime in place but who on earth wants to invest in a company doing business in the Islamofascist peoples hell-hole that is Egypt.

Broker Fox Davies recently noted that on a new fuel tax regime it valued Centamin on a DCF basis at 44p per share.

You can read about that call from FD and my reiterated advice to sell at 69p here

But shares would clearly trade at a discount to that fair value (in the best case scenario). At 27p your upside is maybe 10p, your downside is 17p. The shares remain one to sell.

Now, I await your apologies.

Tom Winnifrith writes for a number of leading US and UK websites and all his free to access material appears on http://www.tomwinnifrith.com/ – you can also follow him on twitter @tomwinnifrith

Tom is one of the speakers at the UK’s premier investment show, UKInvestor on April 13th. He will be joined on stage by a raft of Master Investors including Nigel Wray, Nick :Leslau, Dominic Frisbey, Evil Knievil, Chris Booker, Luician Miers and Mike Hall. 80 growth companies will also be presenting. Not Centamin one assumes. For more details on the show and to book a free ticket click here.

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Comments

  1. Monty says:

    Sorry HRH Tom! It also looks like your prediction on Sefton will come true too..

  2. felix says:

    What a thoroughly unprofessional tirade.
    This commentator should be removed

  3. Paulo92 says:

    Tom, there is nothing I hate more than someone gloating about 1 prediction they got right amongst the scores they got wrong. We all win and lose in this game my friend. It is called gambling! Just because one of your guesses came true doesnt make you a genius. If you were a genius then I hope you would have better things to do than writing petty articles for ADVFN about a miniscule goldminer in egypt, do you not agree?

    Remember it is all one big game mate and no-one knows all the answers

    Merry xmas P

  4. Paulo92 says:

    Not to mention, is this a ‘professional’ piece of journalism? I hope you did not earn any money for this embarrassingly unprofessional article. Shameful

  5. rtrader says:

    I bet we hear nothing from you when the price starts to recover.
    Heard it all before you boring git

  6. rtrader says:

    Sorry – forgot to apologies – o’ well

  7. rtrader says:

    Interested to see if you have any recomendations on VCP,so i can do the oposite

  8. G0ldenB0y says:

    unprofessional!!! Hope it made you feel better as you lost all respect from me at this point.

  9. graham Curtis says:

    u called CEY right, no question.
    yr apocaliptic failures constitute a v. long list though, starting with RIVP where u should have had a clue but ponied up loads yrself shortly before it collapsed.
    On the subject of apologising, ´insider´ called NXS right whilst you did not. You repeatedly insulted him and he is due a grovelling retraction of those comments.
    At the age of 45 or so, the most charitable thing one could say about you is that you have a lot of ´business experience´.
    Or…that you are a failure, now reduced to writing in a desparate attention-seeking manner as you try to climb back up.

  10. Jen says:

    This article shows what a nasty character you are.OK so you got this one right. However you have got most ones wrong. That is why you had to leave t1ps and no longer manage any funds. A serious player would not be writing sensationalist tip a minute stuff on AdvfN and running a pizza cafe.

  11. tyrone says:

    TW you are a very unprofessional a-hole. Why don’t you list all the failed advise you have also given? Anyway, this one you got it right but you are also a very offending man. No wonder you are unliked in the City. Idiot!

  12. Billy says:

    Anyone else here complaining to ADVFN about this stuck up commentator insulting ADVFN members ? I have mailed Clem. Cant imagine its good business for them when one of their new hires is already abusing their customers.

  13. C H Ingoldby says:

    It appears that a lot of the trolls can dole it out but they can’t take it.

    Whine, whine, whine.

  14. Solis says:

    Well, Tom, I have never taken any advice in the past, but now that I need some, with such an attitude and showing yourself for the TW4T that you obviously are I will not be looking to you for advise in the future.

  15. Harry says:

    That is about the most disgraceful and disrespectful article I have ever read. No wonder most people on ADVFN dislike you so much.

    You’re just a nasty, smelly heap of dung whose reputation well deserved.

  16. Jim W says:

    Like it or not, you have to be ruthless and calculated to win on the stock market. Tom is no different….and he has now learnt this the hard way.

    Well done, Tom.

  17. jack says:

    Tom,

    ‘Empty vessels make the most noise’, Tom you really do make a lot of noise.

  18. Reddy says:

    Sorry Tom,

    But you’re still a class A cock ;)

  19. Elizabeth Wilkin says:

    Tom you have been spot on with your analysis of centamin,and i suspect many of those now abusing you are those people that ignored your warnings and now nursing losses (and looking for someone to attack ).

    It is very unfortunate what is happening in egypt but the warnings have been there for some time as you have quite correctly highlighted.

    Please keep the concise well researched analysis coming.

    Liz

  20. Luck be a lady says:

    I don’t know what was said in the past, but you got this one right, so well done.

    I would be interested to read your thoughts on investing in Argentina’s mining industry (Santa Cruz in particular). Are miners such as Minera IRL and Patagonia Gold at risk of a CEY meltdown?

  21. Christopher Robin says:

    Don’t be a moron Winnifrith. Shares go up and down. Unless your investing timescale is measured in weeks this hiccup isn’t a problem – in fact it’s a buying opportunity. To deal with your points:

    “a) you lose money”

    No I don’t. I’m not selling. I haven’t lost anything. Idiot.

    “b) it is time for you to apologise.”

    No it’s not. You’re an idiot. Have you apologised for pumping up Ariana and all the rest ?

    Do you really not understand about shares going up and down and holding for the long term?

  22. Mark Crozier says:

    Hi Tom

    What has happened to the Centamin price over the last few days? That wasn’t in the script, was it?

  23. Dan says:

    Christopher Robin, well said. Looks like ADVFN appointed this muck fellow to degrade their reputation in city. I doubt this arrogant fellow will get well, a day like today (for CEY) will make everyone understand Tom is logical failure in the city.
    Now I ask your same question to this muck (so called) tipster (but failure in reality), “Do you really not understand about shares going up and down and holding for the long term?”

  24. Charles qety says:

    Still gloating you moron, utter fool.

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