Iovance Biotherapeutics Inc (IOVA) News

Good morning all, I finally dropped out of yahoo following badger advice. The board.there became a trash...

I am a long term investor and intend to remain so for the next 5 years.

Looking forward to get to know you all

Thanks for sharing this video Badger. It confirms my belief there a good future ahead of us but near term “uncertainty” will dominate share price. At $7.5, market cap will be $2B. This is probably a low point we may see despite all the positive clinical progress unless we get clarity about revenue/run rate. I think it’s best for management to dilute sooner (after solid Q2 earnings and strong guidance for Q3 and Q4). and get this overhang over with. With cash in the pocket to assure breakeven, share price will show strength: IMGN was able
To do this and IOVA must also be able
To do this to receive same recognition.
I plan to hold and increase my position at lower prices after dilution.

The latest Iovance video and analysis from MoneyPig Trading:

Though I personally like his analyses, I make no claim to accuracy.

"‘There may be a role’ for frontline lifileucel plus pembrolizumab in advanced melanoma" (6/2/24 article)

https://www.healio.com/news/hematology-oncology/20240602/there-may-be-a-role-for-frontline-lifileucel-plus-pembrolizumab-in-advanced-melanoma

The author:

https://www.healio.com/authors/jfriedman2

Iovance as an investment. Do your own due diligence. Learn about your investment or a potential investment if you're new to Iovance and TIL therapy.
https://www.iovance.com/ (the company)
https://www.amtagvi.com/ (the approved TIL Therapy)

I will no longer play defense regarding IOVA. I've done my due diligence, I see the current and future value of TIL therapy, and I believe that Iovance is the current leader that is well ahead of any competitors. It is not an investment for the novice, but it has the potential to provide a stellar return if your investment horizon is at least one year. The market for cellular therapy will continue to grow. Best of all, the recently approved Amtagvi for metastatic melanoma is providing new hope for patients that have run out of options. Amtagvi is potentially a vastly better treatment option than many of the currently prescribed options being utilized in treating metastatic melanoma. Do your own due diligence.

IMHO of course.

The ASCO investor event 5/31/24
https://ir.iovance.com/events/event-details/iovance-asco-investor-event

The presentation:
Sajeve Thomas, MD, Orlando Health
https://www.orlandohealth.com/physician-finder/sajeve-samuel-thomas-md#/overview
https://www.precisionmedicineonline.com/regulatory-news-fda-approvals/after-iovances-amtagvi-approval-whats-ahead-til-therapy (bonus article)
https://www.orlandohealth.com/content-hub/groundbreaking-cancer-treatment-gives-grandmother-new-chance-at-life (bonus article)

The panel:
Donald Lawrence, MD, Massachusetts General
https://www.massgeneral.org/doctors/17892/donald-lawrence
https://www.massgeneral.org/cancer-center/treatments-and-services/til-therapy-melanoma (bonus article)

Daniel Olson, MD, Univ. of Chicago
https://www.uchicagomedicine.org/find-a-physician/physician/daniel-olson

Bruce Brockstein, MD, Endeavor Health North Shore
https://www.northshore.org/research-institute/investigators/bruce-e-brockstein-md/

Good morning! Well laid out MN Gopher. There is more than meets the eye.
But our experience has taught us to expect this and navigate our way out of this fog.
I’ve been asking the question, who does a lower share price benefit the most?
A future buyer comes to mind amongst others, like opportunists who are playing the near term macroeconomic trend to punish cash burning companies which have not proven their “breakeven” trajectory as yet and are about to dilute. Until this dark cloud is out of the way share price remains under downward pressure. Technically, a 27M dilution (10% of float) at $9 raises $250M. Assuming they confirm 300+ patients in 2024 and 600+ in 2025, this should comfortably take them to breakeven and eventual profitability. So why has share price dropped disproportionately over 35% (from baseline 50-day MA of $12.15)? Overdone???? All the good news from ASCO did not help to bring it to $12 again so they could dump and be at $9 with another $250M in their pockets. Definitely a lot of pressure being applied to take it down to $7.50 before allowing dilution and eventual lift off. Some folks will make a lot of money with this carefully orchestrated move. Let us pick up some scraps along the way😅

Thanks Badger for keeping an open mind to all possibilities. Better to underpromise and over deliver. At this time, “uncertainty” with execution (revenue, cash burn) is being fully exploited to lower the share price despite its long term potential.

Well said Sunman, we have zero input, zero control.
The criminal cabal act with impunity as the real big coin seems to “own” the SEC.
Despite the illegal ways they work together in a planned execution, nearly literally executing the companies they target & destroy one day at a time.
Only the strong survive this relentle$$ attack.

Iova will survive the only question is when this lets up…?
8’s
7’s
2
Who knows
Im adding cheaper shares daily since Im long & am happy to pay less today, for a much greater yield later.

Its only unrealized losses or gains
So if long, as painful as this is to watch every single day for months on end, we too can now buy at pre-FDA approval levels.
In my opinion, stay the course & watch as wealth transfers
From the Impatient to the Patient investor.
You, Me, Badger, Surkast, Dennboy etc
#Inittowinit
#CureCancer

Sunman, certainly conservative, not out of line in staying conservative, and still supportive of what should be a higher share price currently.

Thanks for the response.

Nice points Badger. Agreed. I think the 2L option is solid and may function on a timing basis as almost 1L

I revised my earlier estimate (lowered it) based on what I heard on the call yesterday. I estimate around 300-350 for
2024 and hope they can project at least 600 -750 for 2025. If they come out and say this, it will add tremendous confidence with demand. Also, expenses will . become secondary as everyone knows a lot of it is one time infrastructure build up expense. Variable expenses are controllable. Clear pathway to breakeven is what everyone seeks for share price to go back to where it truly should be in the $12-13 baseline range at this time. “Uncertainty” aka lack of clarity is being exploited fully by the cabal. This makes me highly alert as the cabal usually acts with utter confidence based on insider information.
It begs the question, did the cabal get ahead of the curve as they know demand is softer than expectations, revenue recognition is lesser than expectations!, troubles with clinical trials, pressure from potential buyers to dilute the stock and use hedge funds to short it to make it more attractive to them for a quicker buyout, etc etc?
If potential buyer is convinced the data is robust and the future is bright, it is in their best Interest to buy sooner in the cheap and assume some risks. To this end, the buyer can influence a lot of market manipulation with the help of the cabal.
Extreme drop in share price may be driven by insider knowledge of good news or bad news to suit the best interests of ten cabal. We little guys get played. My instincts and past experiences have taught me well. When they announce Q2 and Q3 results ,, we will I’ll
Know a lot more about the facts. Until we get there, Im protecting my long position with insurance. Ok to pay 10% to the cabal to protect 90%. Sound religious 😂 😂😂

Sunman, sorry, should have clarified. Here's the item in your previous post as you stated it: "I estimate an avg. of 5 patients/month across the 50 centers for a run rate of 250 by end of Q3." That would be 750 total for the Q, and I assume you do not believe 5 patients/month at all 50 centers because that would put us at 3000 patients in a year. That's what I was referring to as not making sense to me.

Allow me to ask it a different way: What is your total estimate for infused patients in 2024?

Good morning, Firstly, share price and future potential are not moving in tandem due to dwindling cash position. Secondly, my math is conservative, nothing wrong with it. Based on what I heard. I do not believe established research center ATCs should be viewed in the same category as the new ones. The logistics is complicated and often the surgeons arms have to twisted to get them to harvest tumor cells timely. Insurance pre authorization take some time. Sources to add to delays from identification to treatment still exist. The process will take some to gain efficiency at all centers before we see higher throughput. So being conservative makes more sense to me rather than paint a pie in the sky and miss it. I’m convinced cell therapy is the future, however, the road construction has a long way to go and it takes a lot of money, time and technique. In my opinion, IOVA would be better off to pull in big Pharma partners to co-build this road or carry out dilutions to raise cash at shareholders expense. Make no mistake, this part is clear to many. So while the enthusiasm and future outlook is bright, getting to full potential will require a lot of money and some risk. Who pays to get there is the billion dollar question? So hedging is a good bet for now as near term pressure on share price will continue. Market wants confirmation of more than 300 patients treated in 2024 and an estimate of more than 600 in 2025 by Q3. If management is going to be shy about this one, share price may suffer. While I may come across as Debbie Downer, I’m choosing to be conservative and pragmatic about the current share price and factors governing its near term trend. My experience tells me to hold and hedge (like the hedge funds), keeping adding some as the price falls (like the major institutions) and save dry powder for possible dilution after a solid Q2 or Q3 earnings report. The share price trend will turn for the better when macro conditions improve and/or timeline for “breakeven” is confirmed by management based on demand/supply and revenue/cost calculations. Of course if they gain approval for 1L and/or NSCLC or get an early buyout, share price will buck its current trend. However, I do not believe this is likely to happen in six months.

In parting, I hope I’m proven wrong and the share price turns around sooner and finds its base at $12-13 range again. It is what I desire sooner rather than later.

Happy June to all. .

Dennboy66, the overall takeaway is that TIL for frontline treatment is a timing issue. If an aggressive cancer is discovered, the rate of progression of that cancer may encourage a doc to start some other type of treatment immediately due to the time it takes to harvest the cancer and to manufacture the TIL. Bridge therapy may be the option for a patient that wants to swing for the fences with TIL as soon as possible, but doing nothing until the TIL is ready may allow the cancer to progress unchecked too long currently. The hope and goal is to speed up that process or to have something to slow the progression prior to the administration of Amtagvi. The docs in the panel discussion last night did reference some of this.

Even second line, Amtagvi will have more patients than they can handle in the not too distant future, but frontliine is still the goal and they're working on improvements to make that a greater likelihood for a higher percentage of patients. Very encouraging.

That's how I read it. Your thoughts?

Good morning. I posted on Stocktwits some thoughts on Allison Betof Warner tweets. Too much to repost.
Let me know what you think and your impressions.

Thanks.

Sunman, I'll share some thoughts about the discussion panel a bit later, but your post has me questioning your math. Could you please check and update as necessary? (or am I not coffeed up enough just yet this morning).

Quick point, I did find the discussion to be highly informative, cleared up some concerns I had, and these docs did not hide their enthusiasm which bodes well for the future of TIL.

One other thought, with 50 ATCs Iovance will need less than 2 patients/month/ATC to get into the black with Amtagvi sales alone. If we get up to 70 ATCs by year's end, that number drops to an average of 1.2 patients/mo/ATC. In a recent chat, the company talked about getting up to 3,4,and even 5 patients per month per ATC going forward. I'm using $400k per patient to stay conservative and to make allowances for the medicare/medicaid discounting possibility. Point here is the numbers needed to get into the black should be achievable in the not too distant future. If a capital raise is necessary, it will more likely be to offset costs associated with a buildout for more manufacturing capacity to keep up with demand. Regardless, the ramp-up seems to be clicking along nicely now that the initial hurdles have been crossed.

Good morning and more thoughts later.

IMO of course.

Hello IOVA Board, Would like to hear your take on the conference call. Looks like the bigger centers have served well to address the initial bolus and are sharing lessons learned qith other centers to get them going. Backlog demand is slowing and normal flow patterns are building. I'm estimating they are seeing an avg. 2-4 patients/month at the bigger centers; may be lesser at others. Assuming a total of 50 ATCs broken down to 8 big centers (2-4/month), 8 medium (1-2/month) and the rest small (0-1/month), I estimate an avg. of 5 patients/month across the 50 centers for a run rate of 250 by end of Q3. In Q4 we could see demand grow to 300 patients as addtional centers are added and overall demand for care increases. Have to run now....more later.

Dennboy66, thanks for the analysis. I have been amazed that the shorts were able to so effectively capitalize on a perfect storm which you described quite well.

It's been relentless, but it does seem that the risk to keep shorting has grown. The worm will turn.

IMO

Good luck.

Technical Analysis - (Sorry for grainy photo)

Daily -(D) - top left chart
- Redline is 200 SMA which sits at 8.70
-Stochastics - (5,5,5) Which is faster setting - is 7.27 (21,7,7) Slower setting is at 3.58

So...
1. we are extremely oversold on multiple stochastic settings (Below 20 is oversold)
2. we are close to 200SMA at 8.70
3. We are at lower bollinger band
So what will happen here? Well a stock can stay oversold for a while. Many times the hedge funds that are causing decline in price will hunt the stops which lie below the 200 SMA as it is easy pickings since many technical traders will place stops there.
All in all it is oversold, near the lower bollingerband and right at/close to strong support. Most tech traders would consider this a buy spot.

On Weekly (lower left chart)
- 50SMA is at 8.49
- We are extremely oversold
-- Fibonacci levels -(not on chart) 61.8 retracement level is 8.99

The 61.8 fib level is really big. I have found that many technical traders including large funds utilize this level as a strong support. Of course it is better if the move was more impulsive into that level, but heck an impulse move from 14 to 9 would be a bit much and most likely mean that there was something way wrong. This has been a walk down.

Once again - it appears that this are is a buy zone since we are at a fib support level and extremely oversold.
(Of interest is on the weekly chart you can see the 200 SMA - red line was resistance and the stock bounced right off of it.)

All in all, (And this is my opinion only), You can see that the hedgefunds had an easy decision up there around 18 as they utilized that weekly 200SMA to hit the stock and most likely go short. They utilized the lack of specific revenue and guidance as the doubt necessary to spin a bear thesis. They also had a decreasing XBI and a launching biotech as further ammo for the daily bear attack. But now, we are at support on multiple time frames and extremely oversold. I would postulate that there could be an attempt to get it below 8.70 to capitalize on their strategy as i mentioned above. (I have buy orders there). I do think that we are ripe for a bounce. The big money that bought at 9.15 will most likely start to protect the share price in some form or fashion.

Let me know, what you all are seeing.

Analysts updates over the past several days including today all remain bullish with buy recommendations and significantly higher price targets than the current share price. The average target price is currently at $24.83. So, how do we get the short attacks off our backs? Revenue is the easy answer, but what do we have in the meantime? Maybe we'll get a little bonus buying next week from new funds and major investors after they digest these ASCO stellar results. Maybe?

IMO

Good luck to the longs. Have a great weekend.

Surfkast, getting this therapy to frontline is the goal and the data supports this as likely. The trial will continue to bolster that goal from what we're seeing here.

IMO

Thanks for the update. I browsed the information and it looks pretty compelling from what I see.

Iovance updated ASCO data and an updated corporate presentation:

https://ir.iovance.com/static-files/6e77db81-ba69-4c07-a092-797d83ac5bcb

https://ir.iovance.com/static-files/1d6a7a28-9af3-4d25-b133-4bb9f33d64f2

This is major and impressive. Here's the take-away:

Efficacy and durability of responses in patients with ICI-naive advanced melanoma
– ORR was 65.2% and CR rate was 30.4%
– All evaluable patients demonstrated regression of target lesions
– mDOR was not reached, with a high proportion of ongoing responses (median follow-up of 21.7 months)
– Rate and depth of responses compare favorably with ICI mono- and combination-regimens for first-line melanoma patients

These results serve as rationale for TILVANCE-301, an ongoing registrational, randomized
trial assessing lifileucel + pembrolizumab in frontline advanced melanoma

MNGopher, so your brain was wandering which happens to all of us. When you start wandering, that may be evidence of a bigger issue.

Good luck my friend.

Thank you Badger for attaching the article on Wayne & Duggan (Not Duggin spelling not my forte, lol)

This ties it together nicely Wayne & Duggan to better understand my post

I apologize if it was rambling or confusing.

#CureCancer

Sunman, I don't see any conspiracy. I have read the book, it's well written and entertaining and a book I would recommend to any biotech investor. It also reads a bit like a playbook that is currently being run at Iovance. Many of the names in the book remain in play in different capacities, so it's not unlikely that the names will pop up at times. I think MNGopher (no disrespect intended here) may be giving too much credit to Summit's recent study and since some of the names are tied to Rothbaum's past, he may also be showing a little bias that somehow this will have an impact on Iovance. I don't see it, but I won't completely discount it either. All of us have raw nerves right now because of how the share price has been so consistently walked down over this past month following what can only be described as an orchestrated short attack.

MNGopher, let me know as well what you see that may be an issue for Iovance, or if you see Summit's recent success as more of a motivator to Merck or others to get a deal done with Iovance. As I've stated, at first blush I'm not overly concerned by Summit's study results and they have a long way to go before there's much risk to Merck in my opinion, but I fully admit that I haven't dug in at all on this one.

Here's an older Forbes article about Wayne Rothbaum by the author of the book: https://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanvardi/2023/01/13/for-blood-and-money-book-excerpt-wayne-rothbaum-pharmacyclics-robert-duggan/?sh=7b3d051b4f97

Sorry to confuse anyone. Thoughts were only with two biotech investors now seemingly trying to cure cancer through a solid tumor approach, take a company where the only study was done in China.

Merge together Iova & SMMT one day & combine SMMT’s Drug with Amtagvi, creating a potential powerful cancer fighting duo together.

Merck would be in a position now, potentially to choose to continue to try to pair Keytruda with a different companies therapy/drug, or get in the ring & potentially purchase this new combo
Of Amtagvi & SMMT’s for a higher combined price, then we may have gotten as Iovance Shareholders independently.

There is nothing nefarious here, nothing.

My thoughts wander alot at night where my brain is more active. Im a night guy.

Was thinking out of the box with the timing of SMMT’s announcement, right before ASCO Today & the Investor Conference to follow.

I was typing out loud so to speak.

Wayne & Duggin are wily, wise, experienced Biotech investors & I created a vision that may never ever be any more then that. A vision of how I saw them teaming up to “burn it all down”

That meant to shock the cancer curing community with something unexpected, a merger to create a potential cancer curing powerhouse that Merck could fear would one day, improve upon even Keytruda’s market dominance & cure cancer together.

I think if any of this vision is real & Im not saying it is, Im saying why not both companies need $$& apparently.

Nobody wants share dilution either.

So this is a rational early morning explanation.

None of this is real life, unless Wayne & Duggin make a great deal for the quest to cure cancer & increase shareholder SP in the process.

I hope this clarifies my late night post last night.

#Cure Cancer

“To me in closing, this should light a fire under Merck to pony up quickly & acquire Iovance before Wayne cuts a deal w Duggan, if he already has not done so.”

Please clarify. It’s not making any sense to me. What deal can Wayne strike with Duggan that can benefit Iovance shareholders?

“Why not team up again & burn the house down so to speak.”
Badger and MN Gopher,
Not having read the book “for blood and money”, I’m so confused by your posts about Jim Duggan and his connection to Wayne. Rothbaum. What do you mean by “burn the house down” to avoid diluting the company where they own shares? All this talk sounds like conspiracy and hardcore manipulation to achieve an end. I would like nothing to do with such folks and stay clear of I am so lost with these last few posts about some guy named “Duggan”, his China connection and possible team up with Wayne. them.

Are you suggesting Wayne is finding a way to pressure Merck to buy Iovance?

I cant stop thinking about this.
Manf in China, One Country Study
Prob needs tons of cash that Duggin can probably raise. Or mabye he can’t now.

Iovance & Merck
Keytruda & Amtagvi

Duggin n Rothbaum BOTH understand how to crush solid tumors.

This is way too convenient.
The timing, I do not believe in consequences.

Its a setup in my opinion. Very possible.

Duggin & Wayne
Take on Merck
Merck panics knowing all too well its Cash Cow Keytruda is dead in the water potentially.
IF
Wayne & Jim
Both curing soiid tumors, tight on cash, dont want to dilute each company where they own boatloads of shares.

Why not team up again & burn the house down so to speak.

It makes perfect sense to me.

They need to convince Hamdy to partner again w Wayne

Wayne fired him if I am remembering n he wanted Revenge.

Merck buys the whole lot n Wayne, Duggins, Hamdi & Rachel
Take Joe Edelman N Mark Ravesky (spelling) into the $$$ Sunset n
We all
Tag Along Curing Cancer Together
Much richer then we ever dreamed of sitting at $9.

This is WHO Wayne IS, Duggins Too

It may just end this way

Or a damn good Hollywood Screenplay
Lol!

#CureCancer

100 percent agree. Bring manufacturing back home and dump heavy dependence on Communist China. This is in the best interests of USA as new generation manufacturing involves high technology and China will steal, steal, steal.

I agree there will be a dilution. It’s has been captured in the recent price action. Potential big pharma buyers would like them to scale up manufacturing and achieve a confirmed break even trajectory at our cost.
With that said, I believe they should dilute sooner than later and get dark
Cloud hang over us out of the way. To this effect, they should work with the big boys to drive the price back up to $12-15 range on some good news and get the dilution done. This may bring the price back down to $9-10 post dilution and after that we will have a smoother runway for lift off. Open to critique.

Agree 100% Badger. We need to bring all jobs & Manuf, home across the board.
WuXi is on US soil & 65% of biotechs use them.
Do they steal our IP & send it to China, above my pay grade.
Sometimes where there is smoke, there is fire.
Who knows for sure…?
Our Country was built on Manuf here in the USA.
I hope we return to our past success as a country & decouple 100% from
Communist China.
#CureCancer

OT, MNGopher, I didn't say anything out of China is no good, but I don't take much coming out of China at face value without far more due diligence. I remember too many times from personal experience how Chinese students were placed at U.S. schools in order to benefit the Chinese government through "questionable" acquisitions of confidential material from private company and/or governmental sponsored studies at those various universities. I do agree that Communist countries have different methods and acceptable practices that should give us pause. But people all over the world ask China to produce any number of things for them which does make me nervous when we outsource too much of our technology production including biotech to a Communist country. That said, this is also why WuXi is an easy target during an election year and is used to bolster some politician's ratings as being a good American protecting the citizens. I trust private business far more in deciding which Chinese companies should be trusted and which should not because there's a profit incentive to protect that company's secrets and production quality. IMO

Spoken like a true Capitalist - I'm not ashamed to say.

Thanks Badger, appreciate the clean air comment as well.
While Duggan is the real deal, anything out of Communist China is no good & probably a complete fabrication.

Lets hope Iova wears a pair of brass balls tomorrow & stands up to this criminal cabal type constant short attack & helps put an end or a major lid on it once & for all.
All In With Iova, #CureCancer

MNGopher, it's not a direct threat to Iovance, but I would guess that Merck has taken some notice. Summit's products are just another attempt at slowing progression and an attempt at improving those types of products. TIL therapy will be curing cancer, shrinking tumors, and improving lives much more significantly than what may be a slight, although a supposedly statistically significant improvement over Keytruda. True, if Keytruda detects one more strike against their cash cow Keytruda, it may push them to an earlier decision with the combo therapy. As I half jokingly said on another board, the Chinese patients in the trial may have simply improved by being in a clinical trial hospital with filtered air.

I'm okay with Merck feeling some heat to look to the future that will increasingly be filled with TIL therapies, but Summit may not have the financial wherewithal (redundant phrase, I know) to provoke any fear currently.

IMO of course.

Part 2: It appears a few years away from market IF the FDA would even accept a ONE Communist Country results is insane, despite it’s domicile in Florida.

I don’t know enough to say more, but on the surface we must pay attention to anything Duggan does.

He’s Legit.

To me in closing, this should light a fire under Merck to pony up quickly & acquire Iovance before Wayne cuts a deal w Duggan, if he already has not done so.

Who knows, interesting to say the least.

Stay Tuned the wheels are churning in my opinion.

#CureCancer

SMMT: In the book For Blood & Money
Jim Duggan with Pharamacyclic’s, his old cohorts Ahmed Hamdy & Rachel something, were studying ( Imbruvica) Ibrutinib in Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia, CLL or Small Lymphocytic Lymphoma SLL.

They succeeded was what I recall, FDA approved 4-21-2020, 1st Line treatment of CLL.

Abbvie bought it out.

These cast of Cancer Curing Characters are at it again.

NSCLC: ONE Shithole Country Study in China, came out today with frontline data, defeating Keytruda. The stock soared.

Just a reminder of why we own IOVA: "TIL Therapy: A New Melanoma Treatment 30 Years in the Making"

https://www.aacr.org/blog/2024/05/29/til-therapy-a-new-melanoma-treatment-30-years-in-the-making/

Iovance is curing cancer, but the market wants to know "What have you done for me lately?"

We'll have to show them the money. That's coming soon enough, but these potholes have been tough on what was supposed to be just a nice Sunday drive.

Well guys... looks like we may have a date with the 200 SMA which currently sits at 8.70 on the daily. Very rarely does a stock get this close and not hit the 200 SMA. Most hedge funds that are short know that this is a key support and that many retail traders will have their stop right under that level. That will be my next buy level. It is always hard to see daily losses and in turn a decrease in your account, but this will end up well. Once the hedge funds and MMs decide that it is time then they will let it go. We will not go up until they do.

Was just reviewing the Cowen call and there was two things that jumped out. First, there were 6 PRs that converted to CRs. Usually you get the biggest impact when you first start treating a patient, but for TIL, the response really does deepen over time. Additionally, even though it was ONLY a 65% ORR, ALL evaluable patients had tumor shrinkage so SD (but not enough to qualify for a PR rating).

Second, at the 17;30 mark, they discuss cash runway and "we are not giving revenue guidance so I cannot discuss break-even" BUT he then goes on to say, if they did raise cash, "it would be based on a strong launch trajectory". My take is that they will need to raise cash (more on that below) but the secondary will most likely come just after one of the next quarters ER. This should be a tradable event for anyone trading the stock (or an exit point for anyone wishing they had gotten out at the higher levels).

Reason they will raise cash is that a biotech never wants to have to short of a cash-runway as it can create a death spiral. When the cash runway is very short, hedge funds will step in and start shorting the stock knowing that a secondary is coming with a 10%-15% discount to the current stock price. Heavy shorting (pay attention to borrowing fees and days-to-cover, not absolute short positioning) will drive the stock price even lower requiring the sale of more shares to raise the same amount of cash or requiring another secondary in short order. Biotechs always try to raise funds when they can, not when the need to. IBRX has this issue. As of Q1, they had about 2 quarters of cash on hand (they provide no details but the financials are public. Borrowing fees are about 17.5% (usually less than 0.5%) and my broker shows less thank 500k shares available to borrow. For this reason, I think IOVA will do a secondary, most likely on Q3 earnings but maybe on Q2 or as late as Q4, but no later. Will depend on where the SP is going into the ER and the bump (if any) coming out of the ER.

Regarding the ASCO call, I suspect it will be very similar to the SITC call that occurred in 2022. They do not simply what to release the slide deck without having the commentary that you get in the oral presentation, they will give the same/similar update as was given in the session but also have a KOL panel discussion for a Q&A. It was the SITC meeting where I first heard Allison Warner (she was at SLK but was moving to Stanford at that time to take over their oncology department). Here commentary gave me a lot of confidence that Amtagvi would eventually be approved and have a great launch. Her comment that "all we have now if disease progresses after ICIs is simply to recycle ICIs" reminded me of a clinical version of Einstein's definition of insanity... doing the same thing and expecting different results. Still have that long term view... I will continue to believe known facts until proven otherwise...however, market interpretation of those facts can be off for long time.

Lvogel, what do you think? How would you answer your question?

Good morning, I see that IOVA will make their presentation at ASCO tomorrow after market close. The data they are presenting was released a few days ago and was very positive. They are also holding a meeting with investors after the presentation. Not sure what that is about maybe just buying drinks for everyone since it is Friday night? Will this presentation make any impact on share price on Monday?

For everyone who whined about the insiders getting to buy shares at the secondary offering price of $9.15, that complaint can no longer be used. The chance to buy shares for that price is right in front of everyone right now.

I do have a few open orders that haven't filled yet, but given my expected hold period in order for the market to gain full appreciation of this company's value, these prices don't scare me in the least. Maybe it goes a little lower, but just how willing are the shorts to keep playing this game. Frankly, I hope they stick around for several quarters of earnings because that final capitulation by the shorts will be fun to watch.

Good luck to the longs.

OT Surfkast, thanks for the update. One of the benefits of a moderated board. If we as moderators do our job, it helps the board admin to maintain a functional board for civil discourse. I've learned a lot from others on these boards by engaging in actual discussions, not just pumping or bashing. I've had to correct my thinking and understanding of certain facts numerous times thanks to the willingness of others to share corrective information or at least a willingness to challenge something I've posted. Sometimes it's as simple as just asking the board for thoughts or insights.

Thanks everyone. It's going to be some time before I get to my long term capital gains date on some of my shares, so I'll be here for awhile.

Have a great day, everyone.

Just an FYI. The clown spammer ShortyBusted got booted! LOL

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/profilea.aspx?user=848244

Good morning to the IOVA board,
The slow and steady decline feels like death by thousand needle cuts. Seems like the market Gods have orchestrated it in this manner to allow the transfer of wealth from the impatient to the patient. All of us who exercise patience and resilience will be eventually rewarded when this fog clears. Thanks for the uplift.

Being retired, I was looking for a nice score. It will still come I believe. Just sucks to had doubled my money and not taken some off the table, Soon!