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18 hours ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | June 8, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 4, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 237.3k, up 717.
After essentially hugging the 50-day for 10 consecutive sessions, gold sliced through the average on Friday. For the week, it declined 0.9 percent to $2,325/ounce. A loss of $2,300 – which seems imminent in the sessions ahead – will open the door toward horizontal support at $2,240s.
Earlier, gold printed a fresh high of $2,454 on May 20th before going the other way. The metal has come a long way. Last October, it ticked $1,824 and was at $1,996 this February. It is healthy to digest these gains by unwinding the overbought condition gold is in – the weekly in particular.
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18 hours ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | June 8, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 23250 and is trading up about 12% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Presently, this market has been rising for 7 months going into June suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 23351 and support forming below at 22943. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of May 20th at 24542, which was up 14 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 12th. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed beneath that low which was 23338. This was a very bearish technical indicator warning that we have a shift in the immediate trend. We are trading below the Weekly Momentum Indicators warning that the decline is very significant and we need to pay attention to the timing and reversals. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of May 20th has been important closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 24488 made back during the week of April 8th. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of January 29th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 19964 made the week of February 12th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 5 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 18 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 19950 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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1 day ago
Gold Failed Bullish Breakout Sparks Volatility
By: Bruce Powers | June 7, 2024
• Gold's failed breakout led to a sharp selloff, breaking key supports and testing the 2,298-2,301 zone.
Volatility in gold spiked on Friday following a failed attempt to hold new trend highs reached earlier in the trading session. Notice that resistance was seen at 2,388, just under a top trend channel line. The subsequent selloff persisted throughout the day with gold breaking below the 2,315-swing low support from earlier this week. It is on track to end with a long red candle and will likely close near the lows of the day and below the prior interim swing low.
Testing Support at 50% Retracement
With the day’s low of 2,301, at the time of this writing, gold is testing support of another top trend channel line that can be combined with the 50% retracement at 2,298. That is a possible support zone and so far, it is stopping the descent. It may continue to do so in the short-term.
However, the drop today took the price of gold below the 50-Day MA, and it is on track to end Friday below it, thereby confirming a breakdown. The most recent swing low at 2,277 is a key price level as those low forms the price structure of the uptrend. If it is broken the characteristics of the trend begin to alter and the chance for a deeper or prolonged correction increases.
Failed Weekly Breakout Points to Lower Prices
Today’s price action sets up a failed weekly bullish breakout that was triggered on Thursday. The sharpest moves can come from failed patterns. That dynamic is now evident in gold as seen in today’s sharp bearish reversal. The stage is set for a continuation of a falling ABCD pattern that was confirmed by today’s drop below 2,315. An initial target is at 2,252, and the next extended target is around 2,215. Notice that the lower target aligns with a prior trend breakout area and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 2,211.
The rising trend channel is also a concern. On the recent new highs gold was attempting to breakout of a rising parallel trend channel. A drop below today’s low will confirm the beginning of a breakdown back into the channel. Once that happens, the chance of an eventual drop to the lower line of the channel increases.
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3 days ago
Gold Triggers Weekly Bullish Reversal, Targets Higher Levels
By: Bruce Powers | June 6, 2024
• Gold's rally above 2,364 signals a bullish reversal, aiming for 2,487, with the 20-Day MA now serving as crucial support during pullbacks.
Gold triggers a weekly bullish reversal on Thursday with a rally above last week’s high of 2,364. A daily close above that price level will confirm the breakout. Once confirmed, the chance for further strengthening improves. At the time of this writing gold had reached a high of 2,378 for the day. Also, the 20-Day MA, which has acted as resistance recently, was busted to the upside. The 20-Day line is now at 2,362. If it holds as support during pullbacks, gold should be ready to continue its way higher.
Upside Breakout of Consolidation
Today’s advance triggered a breakout of a falling flag type pattern marked by two declining parallel lines on the chart. It reflects similar price action as seen in a falling bullish wedge pattern. Since a swing low is now indicated at 2,315, a rising ABCD pattern has been added to the chart. It provides an initial target of 2,487. That is where the price advance seen in the CD leg of the pattern matches the move in the AB portion. Once price symmetry is matched a pivot level is identified. That 2,487-price target area is confirmed by several Fibonacci targets. However, there are lower Fibonacci targets as well at 2,462 and 2,480 that are derived from longer Fibonacci measurements.
20-Day MA Should Now Mark Trend Support
The relationship with the 20-Day MA will now take on a greater significance as it should act as support during weakness since today’s breakout is decisive. Nonetheless, the strength or weakness of the day’s close will provide greater clarity. Also, Thursday’s low of 2,353 is a near-term support level to keep an eye on. A break below it may follow a drop below the 20-Day line, if it was to occur.
50-Day MA Also Important
Support was seen around the 50-Day MA over the past six days with a swing low during the period at 2,315. It should also be watched during pullbacks. If gold stays above the 50-Day line, it is signaling higher prices and a continuation of the bull trend. On a monthly basis, for the month of June gold has been trading inside the trading range from May. It could continue to do so throughout the month rather than clearly progressing higher from current price levels.
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3 days ago
Gold Bullish Potential Amid Consolidation and Key Support
By: Bruce Powers | June 5, 2024
• Gold remains in a nine-day consolidation, with key levels at 2,364 and 2,315, showing bullish potential on the weekly chart.
Gold remains in a tight consolidation pattern as it has for the past nine days. The high of the range is at 2,364 (C), also a weekly high, and the low is 2,315. On Wednesday gold advanced to a three-day high of 2,357, once again testing resistance at the 20-Day MA. At the time of this writing gold is on track to close at its highest daily closing price in six days. An advance above 2,360 will provide an earlier bullish signal than a rise above 2,364.
50-Day Moving Average Trend Support
The 50-Day MA has been representing an area of support over the past week. If this week’s low of 2,315 fails to maintain support, gold is heading towards a retest of the recent swing low of 2,277. A break below there has it heading towards the earlier breakout levels at 2,212 and 2,195. An interim target is 2,239, which is the completion of a falling ABCD pattern. That target is a potential pivot where support might be seen. The extended ABCD target is down at 2,205, within the 2,212 to 2,195 price zone.
Weekly Bullish Breakout Above 2,364
An advance above the 2,364-price level also triggers a weekly bullish reversal from last week’s relatively narrow range week, if it happens before the end of the week. So far this week, gold is showing signs of strengthening on the weekly chart. If it maintains strength, it will close the week in the green with a bullish weekly setup. Maintaining support around the 50-Day MA is going to save the trend in gold. The purple 20-Day MA defined dynamic resistance of the upswing from the February 29 bullish breakout, while the new advance may use the 50-Day line as dynamic trend support.
A breakout above last week’s high does not mean that gold starts going straight up again. Although it may do that, the more likely scenario following the recent 23.5% rally, is further consolidation near the recent highs. Another critical price level on the way up will be 2,431, a prior record high from April 12. Resistance may be seen there again, but there is also a good chance that the price of gold breaks out through the price zone as it heads higher.
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4 days ago
Gold Holds 50-Day MA Support Amid Downtrend Concerns
By: Bruce Powers | June 4, 2024
• Despite holding support at the 50-Day MA, gold's recent trend of lower weekly highs and lows suggests caution for investors.
Gold holds support around the 50-Day MA for the fourth day in a row on Tuesday. It remains sandwiched between resistance around the purple 20-Day MA and the 50-Day line for support. Although gold has dipped below the 50-Day line intraday in the last two days, it has ended the sessions at or above the 50-Day line. Watch where it ends today to see if there is a change in the recent closing pattern. If the daily close is lower relative to the 50-Day line than what has been seen to date, it may be signaling further weakness before the retracement is complete.
Weekly Chart is Bearish
Nevertheless, the weekly chart is taking a more bearish tone. This week triggered a third consecutive lower weekly low. The week’s low of 2,315 is lower than last week’s low of 2,321, which is lower than the prior week’s low of 2,325. In addition, this week and last week’s highs are each lower than the prior week. In other words, there is a series of lower weekly highs and lower weekly lows established on the weekly chart, which defines a downtrend. That will start to change if this week’s high gets above last week’s high of 2,364 before the end of this week.
Price Support Areas to Watch
This week’s low of 2,315 is key near-term support. A decisive drop below that level has gold heading towards potential support around a top trend channel line at approximately 2,299 and then the 50% retracement zone at 2,289. Note that the recent swing low found support in early-May at 2,277. If that price level is eventually broken, then the 2,239-price zone becomes the net lower target (D). That target reflects price symmetry within a falling ABCD pattern, as marked on the chart. Further down is the second target for the ABCD pattern at 2,205. It is part of a price support zone from 2,208 to around 2,154.
Signs of Strength Above 2,364
Gold will be showing signs of strength rather than weakness with a rally above the most recent swing high (C) of 2,364, which is also last week’s high. Until then, downside risk remains. A daily close above 2,364 will further confirm strength and more so on a rally and close above the 2,384 daily high from May 23.
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1 week ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | June 1, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 28, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 236.6k, up 6.8k.
Gold was up 0.5 percent for the week but could have done better. At Tuesday’s high, gold rallied as high as $2,386 but finished the week at $2,346/ounce. The metal has essentially gone sideways the last six sessions just above the 50-day ($2,335).
It increasingly feels like gold is taking a breather before beginning a process of digesting the recent gains. Last October, the yellow metal ticked $1,824 and was at $1,996 this February. On May 20th, gold reached $2,454.
Once the 50-day gives way, there is decent support at $2,240s.
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1 week ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | June 1, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 23458 and is trading up about 13% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Up to now, this market has been rising for 7 months going into June suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. We have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains neutral with resistance standing at 23490 and support forming below at 23405. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of May 20th at 24542, which was up 14 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 12th. Afterwards, the market bounced for 14 weeks reaching a high during the week of May 20th at 23263. Since that high, we have been generally trading down to sideways for the past week, which has been a sharp move of 4.905% in a reactionary type decline. Nonetheless, the market still has not penetrated that previous low of 19964 as it has fallen back reaching only 23338 which still remains 16.90% above the former low.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of May 20th has exceeded the previous high of 24488 made back during the week of April 8th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 19964 made the week of February 12th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 23006. Additional support is to be found at 23046. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 5 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 18 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 19950 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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1 week ago
Gold Drops Below Key Levels, Signals Further Weakness
By: Bruce Powers | May 31, 2024
• Testing the 50-Day MA, gold hits new retracement low at 2,321, indicating potential for continued bearish momentum.
Following a successful test of resistance around the 20-Day MA gold turns down and attacks its 50-Day MA. At the time of this writing gold has reached a low for the day of 2,321 and it continues to trade near the lows. Further, today’s low is a new retracement low as the previous level of 2,322 was busted. It looks like gold intends to test lower price levels unless strong support is seen soon.
Next Possible Support Zone
The next potential support area may be seen around a top rising channel line that is currently near 2,298. If gold drops further below the 50-Day MA and stays below it, the recent swing low of 2,277 is at risk of being broken. There are several lower price areas marked on the chart but let’s start by considering a developing falling ABCD pattern.
A bearish continuation was triggered on Wednesday following a two-day bounce. Subsequently, support was seen around the 50-day line leading to a retest of resistance today and yesterday. Since resistance was followed by a decline today, it looks like the initial target from the pattern at 2,239 could be reached eventually.
Return to Previous Breakout Levels?
Further down is a potentially more significant price zone as it was previously trend highs of a small consolidation pattern. When combined with Fibonacci price levels a potential support zone from 2,207 to roughly 2,195 is indicated. A breakout of that consolidation was the most recent pattern breakout prior to the April 12 swing high. Therefore, that price area would be the maximum decline that may test previous resistance as support.
Weekly Chart is Bearish
The weekly chart is supportive of a deeper retracement as this week is likely to end below last week’s low of 2,325, thereby confirming a weekly bearish continuation signal. It follows a bearish candle from last week when gold also closed near the lows of the week. This means the last two weeks have had a bearish reaction to the new trend high last week. In other words, a failed breakout. Failed patterns frequently lead to sharp moves in the opposite direction.
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1 week ago
Gold Bounces Off Key Support at 50-Day Moving Average
By: Bruce Powers | May 30, 2024
• Gold's recent pullback to 2,322 finds support at the 50-Day MA, with potential for another advance toward record highs.
Gold fell to a new pullback low of 2,322 where it found support and bounced. That low completed a successful test of support at the 50-Day MA (2,324), as price was rejected to the upside. Also, notice that today’s high of 2,352 provided another test of resistance just below the purple 20-Day MA on the chart. The 50-Day line is a key intermediate trend indicator.
First Test of Support at 50-Day Line
Today was the first test of support at the line since gold broke out above it on February 29. That was the beginning of the sharp rally that peaked last week at a new record high of 2,450. It should continue to maintain support if gold is to have another shot at record highs before a deeper retracement. That means today’s low support at 2,322 is a key near-term price level for gold.
Break Above 2,364 Shows Buyers Back in Charge
Beginning on Friday’s trading session, gold will show strength on a rally above today’s high of 2,352. But an advance above the minor swing high at 2,364 will give a clearer sign of strength as that will also put gold back above the purple 20-Day MA, currently at 2,355. However, to clear the pullback bottom and set the stage for a test of the recent record high, the price of gold should get above last Thursday’s high of 2,384. Interestingly, notice that two trendlines cross just around that price zone.
Weekly Chart is Clearer
Nevertheless, when looking at the weekly chart the picture is a little clearer. There is one more day of trading for the week and unless gold shows greater strength before the week’s close it is set to end with a relatively narrow range week with a high of 2,364 and a low of 2,322. Narrow price ranges typically end with an acceleration of momentum in one direction or another once a breakout triggers. On a weekly timeframe, it is representative of consolidation.
There was only one other weekly narrow range since the breakout of a symmetrical triangle began the recent sharp rise on February 29. It occurred on March 11 and was followed by a resumption of the bull trend. However, there was a quick drop below the week’s low before buyers took back control.
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2 weeks ago
Gold Bounces Above 20-Day MA Amid Choppy Market Moves
By: Bruce Powers | May 28, 2024
• A close above the 20-Day MA may indicate a minor bullish signal, but gold faces short-term resistance slightly above today’s high.
Following last week’s bearish pullback to a low of 2,325, gold continues its bounce. It has managed to get back above the 20-Day MA after falling below it for a few days, and it might close above the line. If it does end Tuesday’s session above the 20-Day line, a minor bullish signal will be provided. Also, the downtrend line was successfully tested as support today following a rise above the line on Monday. In a rising market a successful test of prior resistance as support is supportive of a bull trend, even if only for a short time frame.
Trendlines and Pivots
Both the downtrend line and the 20-Day MA are identifying a similar price pivot zone. Two trendlines are slightly above today’s high and could present short-term resistance if gold rises to test those lines. Nevertheless, a rally above last Thursday’s high of 2,384 is needed for confidence that an advance can keep rising. A rise above Thursday’s high would put gold above the top trend channel line and the up-trend line, thereby further indicating strength of demand.
Last Week’s Price Action Provides a Clue
Regardless of potential bullish signals, gold may continue to experience choppy moves with weak follow-through given last week’s price action. History supports this. Last week ended with a wide-range red outside week, with a low of 2,325 and a high of 2,450 (record high). Therefore, trading within the range can experience an impact like what is seen when trading occurs inside a consolidation pattern.
A similar situation happened following a new record high of 2,135 on December 4 of last year. The week ended as a wide-range bearish red candle with a close near the lows of the week. Notice what happened afterwards following a brief new low that led to a bounce. The following eight weeks traded within the range of the initial candle that eventually formed a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern. It took an additional two weeks to complete the pattern and for gold to break out and begin to rally again. Although the pattern may be different this time, the possibility of a few weeks or more of consolidation before gold is ready to advance again, cannot be ruled out.
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2 weeks ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | May 25, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 21, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 229.8k, up 25.3k.
Non-commercials raised net longs in gold futures to the highest since April 2022. They were probably lured into the trade by the metal’s recent strength. This month, gold rallied from $2,285 on the 3rd to $2,454 on the 20th, with the latter a fresh record, surpassing the recent all-time high of $2,449 posted on April 12th.
However, gold bugs were unable to latch on to the 20th (this Monday) high. By the end of the week, the yellow metal gave back 3.4 percent to $2,335/ounce.
More weakness probably lies ahead, particularly if the bulls are unable to defend the 50-day moving average at $2,319. There is decent support at $2,240s.
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2 weeks ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | May 25, 2024
Next Monday is Memorial Day, which is a holiday in the United States. NY Gold Futures closed today at 23345 and is trading up about 12% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it may now decline on the MONTHLY level. Presently, this market has been rising for 6 months going into May suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 24542 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 22491. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's close of 23029.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. We have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 23387 and support forming below at 23182. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of April 29th at 22852, which was down 3 weeks from the high made back during the week of April 8th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 24542 to 23263. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of May 20th reaching 24542 has exceeded the previous high of 24488 made back during the week of April 8th. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of January 29th. We have seen a rally thus far from the last low of 22852 for the past 3 weeks. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune, however, the market remains strong at this time. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 22852. Resistance is to be found starting at 23402. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 3 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 17 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 20030 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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2 weeks ago
Gold Faces Resistance, Eyes 50-Day MA
By: Bruce Powers | May 24, 2024
• After reaching support at 2,325, gold bounces to 2,347 but finds resistance, suggesting further decline towards the 50-Day MA.
Gold stalled its bearish retracement today with a narrow range day after dropping briefly below yesterday’s low to reach support at 2,325. Subsequently, an intraday bounce found resistance at the 20-Day MA with a high for the day at 2,347. Both the narrow range day with consolidation near the lows of Thursday’s trading range and a successful test of prior support as resistance, are potentially bearish indications that may occur in downtrends.
Further, trading is occurring back near the lows of the day at the time of this writing, and therefore gold may close weak, in the bottom third of the day’s range. And unless something changes in the next few hours it will end the week with a large red candlestick pattern, closing near the lows of the week.
Weekly Breakdown Triggered
Yesterday, gold triggered a breakdown below last week’s low of 2,332. A daily close below that price level will confirm the bearish implications. But it will then depend on what happens after that. Nevertheless, given today’s sustained selling pressure it looks like the 50-Day MA around 2,309 is next on the agenda. The successful test of resistance at the 20-Day line today is a small clue that the retracement is likely to continue to lower prices.
Whether it has the potential to fall below the 50-Day MA remains to be seen. Certainly, it is an important trend indicator for the current advance especially since the 20-Day line has failed to stop the decline. Yesterday’s selloff was clear with little hesitation as the 20-Day line was broken.
Anticipating Test of Support at 50-Day MA
If support can be found at or above the 50-Day MA, a continuation of the rally may follow. However, a sustained drop below it puts the recent swing low at 2,277 from early-May at risk of being broken. If that happens the price structure of the uptrend is violated as it is a higher swing high. There are less significant potential support levels just below the 50-Day line but above the early-May swing low. The 50% retracement of the internal uptrend is at 2,289 and a top trend channel line is a little higher from there.
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2 weeks ago
Gold Breaks Support Levels, Risk of Further Decline
By: Bruce Powers | May 23, 2024
• Gold falls below multiple support levels to 2,332, indicating a potential bearish reversal and increasing risk of a deeper correction.
Gold sold off again on Thursday as it fell below several points of potential support to reach a low of 2,332. Trading continues near the lows of the day and gold may continue lower. Several trendline support areas failed to halt the decline and the 20-Day MA was broken to the downside.
Further, it looks like the daily close may come in below the 20-Day line. Today’s low is also a weekly low from last week. If gold falls below last week’s low and stays there, a bearish weekly reversal will be triggered. How gold does or does not follow through from there will be key.
Watching 50-Day Moving Average
If a more significant retracement than what was seen most recently is beginning the 50-Day MA will be the next key test of support at 2,306. Gold has traded above the 50-Day line since the acceleration in momentum following a symmetrical triangle breakout on February 29. If it is busted to the downside there is a good chance that the recent 2,277 swing low support is broken. That can easily lead to a test of support around 2,195, which is a prior swing high. Further down is the prior swing high at 2,135.
This Week’s High Completes a 23.5% Advance
As of this week’s high of 2,450 gold was up by 465.80 points or 23.5%, when measured from the mid-February low of 1,984. Today’s price action indicates that the risk of a deeper correction since the mid-February 1.94 bottom is increasing. There were three trendlines that cross just above the 20-Day MA that created a potential support zone. That zone failed today as gold dropped through each one. Further, the near-term trending indicator, the 20-Day MA, was attempting continue to represent dynamic support for the uptrend as gold dropped below it recently and then rallied back above it.
Today’s High of 2,384 is Near-term Resistance
On the upside, a minimum rally above today’s high 2,384 would be needed for the first sign of strength. That should be followed by a daily close above that level. Nevertheless, as stated above, the preference next for gold seems to be leaning more to the downside than the upside.
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3 weeks ago
Gold Price Falls Further After Record High, Eyes Key Support Levels
By: Bruce Powers | May 22, 2024
• Gold's decline from its peak of 2,450 brings it near vital support zones, including the 20-Day MA at 2,348.
Gold lost its upward momentum and fell below the lows of the past two days before finding support at a three-day low of 2,375. However, trading remains near the lows of the day at the time of this writing. Sellers took control today following Monday’s new record high of 2,450. That day closed weak, with the price of gold ending in the lower half of the day’s trading range. Nonetheless, it is fast approaching initial potential support levels for the uptrend.
Three Trendlines for Support
There are several trendlines that converge around 2,364 to 2,356. A little lower is the 20-Day MA at 2,348. How gold reacts to the 20-Day line will be telling. It was broken for a little more than two weeks in April before gold rallied back above it on May 9. Support was confirmed over the next few days before it began to rise again leading to a new record high. If today’s weakness leads to a retest of support around the 20-Day line and price is rejected to the upside, the trend structure will be maintained. Or, if support is seen above the 20-Day MA.
Weekly Uptrend Intact Until 2,332
Further, last week’s low is at 2,332 and it provides another lower possible support area. The weekly chart (not shown) has an uptrend in place with this week being the third with a higher weekly low and higher high. Therefore, it is another key price level to watch if the retracement eventually starts to approach that price zone. On the daily chart the weekly low is the most recent swing low where the 20-Day line was tested as support.
Watching Reaction to Support Levels
Until proven otherwise, the uptrend can be anticipated to continue following a pullback. A daily close below the 20-Day MA might change the near-term situation. It would put the current uptrend structure at risk of changing the slope of the ascent. As discussed previously, the current advance from the most recent swing low made a second attempt to breakout from two rising parallel trend channels. The more significant line is the longer one that marks support around 2,364 if was reached today.
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3 weeks ago
Gold Minor Pullback Following New Record High
By: Bruce Powers | May 21, 2024
• Gold retreated slightly on Tuesday, pulling back from the new record high of $2,450 hit in the previous session.
Following an advance to a new trend high of 2,450 yesterday, gold pulled back slightly on Tuesday, falling below Monday’s low of 2,407. Today is the first day in six that the price of gold fell below a prior day’s low. Last week gold ended strong, closing at its highest weekly closing price ever. However, following a rise to a new record high, Monday ended weak, in the lower half of the day’s range and below the prior record high of 2,431. The closing price was 2,426.
Top Channel Line Shows Support
Nevertheless, there was a minor bullish indication given with today’s low of 2,406, as it successfully tested support at a top trend channel line. Last Thursday that line was specifically resistance at the peak of the day, and now showing signs of support. This is bullish price action that is typical for a developing bull trend. Subsequently, we have near-term support at today’s low of 2,406 and resistance at the high of 2,434. A breakthrough either should point to the next likely direction in gold, either bullish continuation or retracement and consolidation.
Rally Above Today’s 2,434 High is Bullish
A decisive rally above today’s high of 2,434 shows strength and may lead to a test of Monday’s 2,450 high and possibly a continuation higher. The next higher target zone was almost reached yesterday. It includes two Fibonacci extension targets and runs from 2,461 to 2,462. The 2,462 has potentially greater significance as it covers a measurement from a longer time frame than the 2,461 level. When measuring the retracement of the 51-month decline that started from the August 2011 trend high at 1,921, a 161.8% extended retracement completes at 2,461. That price level is enhanced by a shorter Fibonacci extended target marking 2,460 as a target.
Outlook Remains Bullish
The overall outlook for gold is clearly bullish given recent price action. Notice that the purple 20-Day MA has started to turn up after a minor downward sloping phase, and it has converged with the internal uptrend line. As of last Friday, gold was back above both top trend channel lines following a drop back below the lines on April 22. An initial bullish breakout from the parallel trend channel triggered on April 8. Notice that both lines identified a similar resistance area on the breakout day as the lines were crossing. A second breakout of the channels looks like it may be the one that can keep advancing.
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3 weeks ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | May 19, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 14, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 204.5k, up 4.9k.
Gold rallied for a second week in a row, up 1.8 percent this week. The mettle has been rallying since May 3rd when it ticked $2,285 intraday. As a matter of fact, this week represents a new closing high of $2,417 – just ahead of $2,414 recorded four weeks prior. Back then, gold had just printed a new intraday high of $2,449, which occurred on April 12th, but the session reversed hard to close at $2,361.
Kudos to gold bugs for having rallied the metal back to those highs. The action after that high lasting five weeks now qualifies for sideways congestion, giving the bulls another opportunity to break out.
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3 weeks ago
Jack Chan: Gold Price Exclusive Update
By: Jack Chan | May 18, 2024
Our proprietary cycle indicator is now DOWN.
To public readers of our updates, our cycle indicator is one of the most effective timing tool for traders and investors. It is not perfect, because periodically the market can be more volatile and can result in short term whipsaws. But overall, the cycle indicator provides us with a clear direction how we should be speculating.
Investors
Accumulate positions during an up cycle and hold for the long term.
Traders
Enter the market at cycle bottoms and exit at cycle tops for short term profits.
GLD is on short term buy signal.
GDX is on short term buy signal.
XGD.to is on short term buy signal.
GDXJ is on short term buy signal.
Analysis
Current data favors overall lower gold prices.
Our ratio is on buy signal.
Trend is UP for USD.
Trend is UP for gold stocks.
Trend is UP for gold.
A clear five waves pattern is in progress, and perhaps ending soon.
A diamond bottom is a bullish chart pattern.
Summary
Gold sector cycle is now down.
Trend is up for gold and gold stocks..
$$$ We were stopped out with a small profit.
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3 weeks ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | May 18, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 24174 and is trading up about 16% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it may now decline on the MONTHLY level. Up to this moment in time, this market has been rising for 6 months going into May suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 23956.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of April 8th at 24488, which was up 8 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 12th. We have been generally trading up for the past 2 weeks from the low of the week of April 29th, which has been a move of 6.222%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 24488 made 5 weeks ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 21048 and 24294. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of April 8th has exceeded the previous high of 20832 made back during the week of January 29th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 19964 made the week of February 12th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 13 weeks which from a timing perspective warrants concern.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 17 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 20030 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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3 weeks ago
Gold Is Doing Great!
By: Carl Swenlin | May 17, 2024
While we don't typically begin with a monthly chart, it seems like a good place to start, as most of the good news is present there.
Beginning on the left side, we can see how gold made a parabolic advance into an all-time high in 2011. Parabolic advances beg for correction, and boy did gold correct. It declined almost -50% into a low in 2015, then advanced for over three years into a new all-time high in 2020. During that time, a bullish cup formation emerged. After that, it consolidated for over three years (the handle), ultimately breaking out of a 12-year consolidation.
I think it is an important point that gold took over 12 years to digest the huge advance into the 2011 top. In my opinion, it puts a solid floor under the most recent advance.
Currently, we can see that gold has gone parabolic again, and it is hard to know when it will top. The preferable resolution to this vertical move would be a sideways consolidation, but we'll just have to wait and see. In my opinion, we shouldn't see any kind of parabolic crash.
Another bullish sign is that sentiment is still bearish. We assess sentiment by seeing if the closed-end Sprott Physical Gold Fund (PHYS) is selling at a discount or a premium. As you can see, it has been selling mostly at a discount for 11 years, clearly showing that the public is still not yet excited about owning gold. We think this is because cryptocurrencies are attracting a lot of the money that might otherwise be moving into gold. In any case, bearish sentiment is bullish for gold.
Looking at the daily candlestick chart below, we can see that the Gold ETF (GLD) closed at an all-time high today, just above a solid level of support. To clarify, GLD is a vehicle that can be used to trade/invest in gold, while the symbol $GOLD is a continuous contract dataset used to track the price of gold, but it cannot be owned.
Conclusion: Gold spent a long time, over 12 years, consolidating huge gains in the early part of the century. It recently broke out decisively from that trading range, and it appears to be at the start of another strong, long-term rally.
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3 weeks ago
Gold Surges to New Highs, Targets 2,462 Next
By: Bruce Powers | May 17, 2024
• Gold rallies to new high of 2,419, targeting 2,462 as strong bullish momentum pushes towards record weekly closing price.
Gold continued its rally today with a new swing high of 2,419. Momentum was strong indicated by the wide range day and full green candle. A top trend channel line and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement were exceeded during today’s advance. Gold is set to close strong, near the top of this week’s trading range. Nevertheless, baring an extreme move before the close, it should end at its highest ever weekly closing price. That bodes well for future prices and alludes to a continuation higher and a possible breakout to new record highs.
Gold Targets 2,462 if 2,431 is Exceeded
The recent record high in gold was 2,431. If exceeded to the upside gold looks to be heading towards 2,462. That price area is the confluence of two Fibonacci levels. One is an extended retracement of the September 2011 decline, and the other is the 127.2% extended retracement from the recent pullback off the 2,431-record high. Since they line up and represent both a long-term price projection and a short-term level, it should be watched closely for signs of resistance. Regardless, demand could remain strong and push prices right through that zone. Whatever the reaction around that price level, it is a potential pivot to be watched.
Further Up is 2,480
That price target is followed by a slightly higher target at 2,480, which is the completion of a measured move. Gold rallied by 870 points from the August 2018 swing low of 1,160. The current advance, when measured from September 2022 trend swing low at 1,615, will be up by 870 when the price of gold is at 2,485. That is a target. After that there are a variety of possible interim targets if the bull trend in gold continues to advance, and it looks like it will.
Strong Follow Through from March Breakout
As discussed previously, gold successfully broke out of a multi-year basing period in March of this year. The subsequent follow-through has been bullish as momentum has stayed strong and retracements or consolidation periods have been minor. For example, the recent retracement found support and reversed higher with less than a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement being completed. This reflects demand from buyers. It has stayed strong.
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3 weeks ago
Gold Price Forecast: Will the Rally Continue?
By: Bruce Powers | May 16, 2024
• Gold surged to a new high but encountered resistance, pausing its advance. Key trendlines suggest further upside potential, with the rally likely leading to new record highs.
Gold rallied to a new trend high of 2,397 on Thursday before encountering resistance and pulling back intraday. At the time of this writing gold is on track to complete the day with a narrow range, reflecting a pause in the advance. Resistance was seen at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and further confirmed by a top rising trend channel line that marked the same price. Support for the day was at 2,371, right at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone (prior resistance becomes support).
Trendlines Indicate Higher Prices for Gold
Of note is the relationship of the price of gold with two trendlines. The more significant line is the rising line connecting the recent May 3 swing low, as it covers a longer time frame than the second line. If gold stays above that line, it can be anticipated to continue to strengthen. Also, gold rose above the downtrend line starting from the April 12 record high of 2,431 yesterday, and it exceeded the prior trend high at 2,378 as well. Wednesday’s close was above both the line and prior trend high thereby confirming strength.
Second Breakout of Trend Channel in Process
Moreover, yesterday’s advance ended clearly above the longer top rising channel line, triggering a second bullish breakout from the parallel trend channel. Will the second breakout lead to upside follow through? Certainly, it is starting to look that way. In addition to the trendlines noted above, the purple 20-Day MA is critical support if a retracement begins. It happens to match the price represented by the rising trendline today at 2,334.
Breakout Above 2,397 Triggers Bullish Continuation
A decisive rally above today’s high of 2,397 provides a bullish signal. If this occurs the record high of 2,431 is the next target. Gold is likely to then continue to advance into new record high territory. The first new high target is around 2,461/2,462, marked by the confluence of two Fibonacci levels. It includes a 161.8% extension at of the retracement from the decline that began off the August 2011 trend high of 1,921. Therefore, it is potentially a significant price level as it covers a long period of time.
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3 weeks ago
Gold Price Breaks Resistance, Eyes Further Gains
By: Bruce Powers | May 15, 2024
• Gold price hits new high at 2,390, showing signs of strength and potential for further gains.
Buyers stepped up on Wednesday to help push the price of gold to a new trend high of 2,390. A bullish breakout triggered on the weekly chart on a move above last week’s high of 2,378. At the time of this writing the high of the day is 2,390. Today’s advance took gold back above a top channel line, which has been tested as resistance several times in the past few weeks and it provides another sign of strength for the precious metals. It doesn’t hurt that silver has also shown signs of continuing higher (not shown) as it rapidly approaches the high for the year.
Next Higher Target Zone is 2,398
Next, gold faces potential resistance around the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 2,398. That price area also marks a top channel line. An advance through 2,398 will put gold back above both rising parallel trend channels following a failed breakout in early-April. A recovery following a failed breakout initially sets the stage for a continuation of the trend into higher prices. The first upside target is the trend high of 2,431. If a bull trend continuation signal is generated on a decisive rally above 2,431, the next higher target is at 2,431. Two Fibonacci levels mark that spot.
Second Channel Breakout Attempt
If gold advances above the top channel line and stays there, and then further strengthens, it will confirm strength. The advance to date has seen the price of natural gas appreciate at a rapid pace. A steep angle of ascent represents strength but also increases the risk for a sharp retracement. A daily close or more above the channel will go a long way to satisfying the bulls.
Long-Term Outlook is Bullish
As discussed more than once before, gold is in the process of following through on a bullish breakout above a multi-year base building period. Today’s advance triggered a breakout of the downtrend line and last week’s high. It shows buyers getting aggressively interested in gold as global uncertainty in government broadens. Moreover, a pullback remains a possibility if signs of weakness start to show up. The first sign of weakness that could lead to a deeper retracement would be on a drop below today’s low of 2,352.
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4 weeks ago
Gold Testing Support, Eyes on Upside Breakout
By: Bruce Powers | May 14, 2024
• Gold's position above 20-Day MA is critical, with a potential breakout above 2,364 indicating further strength towards the trend high of 2,378.
Gold has traded above the 20-Day MA for the past few days and again successfully tested the line as support today. This puts it in a critical short-term position. A drop below yesterday’s low of 2,332 is a break below daily support and the 20-Day MA, which is at 2,333 today.
Alternatively, a decisive advance above today’s high of 2,359, at the time of this writing, is a sign of strength, as it would signal an inside day breakout. However, a rise above Monday’s high of 2,364 is a more significant signal and has a better chance of seeing gold continue to strengthen from there. But the trend high of 2,378 needs to be exceeded to the upside before a trend continuation signal is generated.
Two Lines Mark Support
In addition to trend support represented by the 20-Day line, the uptrend line touching the lows of the most recent price action should also be given some attention. Notice that the 20-Day line and nearby uptrend line will converge within a day or two.
It could be hinting at further consolidation for a few more days. This week is an inside week so far. It is possible the week ends with the price of gold staying within the trading range of last week. If so, a sharper and sustained advance to challenge the 2,378 high and possibly exceed it, may have to wait until next week.
Drop Below 2,324 Eyes Deeper Pullback
On the downside, a bear flag may be in the process of forming with the internal uptrend line as a proxy for the lower boundary of the flag. It is not clearly formed yet but deserves to be watched to see if it progresses and becomes more clearly defined.
A drop below the trend line could see gold drop to test the 50-Day MA at 2,274. That price level is very close to the most recent swing low of 2,277. Given gold’s strong rally from the mid-February swing low, a test of support around the 50-Day line would not change the overall bullish outlook for gold. In fact, it would better prepare the market for a continuation into new record highs.
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4 weeks ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | May 11, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 7, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 199.6k, down 4.6k.
Last Friday, gold bugs showed up at $2,285 – well before testing horizontal support at $2,240s. They built on that this week, as the metal rallied 2.9 percent to $2,375/ounce. This comes after two weeks of decline.
On April 12th, gold printed a new intraday high of $2,449 but only to then reverse hard to close the session at $2,361. Friday’s intraday high of $2,385, in fact, kissed a falling trendline from that high. This resistance likely gives way in the sessions ahead.
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4 weeks ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | May 11, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 23750 and is trading up about 14% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it may now decline on the MONTHLY level. At the moment, this market has been rising for 6 months going into May suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 23479.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of April 8th at 24488, which was up 8 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 12th. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of April 29th, which has been a move of 4.380%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 24488 made 4 weeks ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 20767 and 23969. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of April 8th has been important Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 20832 made back during the week of January 29th. Nonetheless, that high was actually lower than the previous high made the week of December 25th suggesting this market has really been running out of sustainable buying for right now. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 19964 made the week of February 12th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 23402. Additional support is to be found at 22491. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 12 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 17 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 20030 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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4 weeks ago
Gold Price Breakout Above Key Levels Signals Strength
By: Bruce Powers | May 10, 2024
• After triggering a bullish weekly reversal, gold's advance signals strength, with potential for further upside towards recent highs.
Gold triggered a bullish weekly reversal on Friday as it advanced above last week’s high of 2,347. The high of the day was 2,378 before it pulled back intraday. Gold is on track to end the week above last week’s high and above the most recent swing high at 2,352, further confirming strength. Yesterday, gold gave an initial sign of strength with a daily close above the 20-Day MA.
Today’s advance completed a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline around 2,373. Also, notice that today’s rally got above a top channel trendline and is set to close above it. That line represented resistance recently during the pullback.
Bullish Reversal on Weekly Chart
This could be the beginning of a bullish reversal that tests recent highs and potentially begins an advance to new record highs. The recent retracement stalled at a low of 2,277, which is near the 50% retracement of an internal upswing. However, when measuring a larger portion of the uptrend that starts from the February swing low, support came in above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
A retracement to the 38.2% price level would also be relatively minor and reflect underlying strength. However, buyers were more aggressive and turned the price of gold back up at a higher price area. And momentum has been strong the past two days as the ascent began.
Price Levels to Watch on the Way Up
Price levels to watch on the way up include the three-week high of 2,389 and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 2,398. There is then an interim swing high at 2,418 and the trend high at 2,431. An initial breakout above the top trend channel line triggered on April 8. But it failed to continue and led to the recent retracement. It is interesting to note that the market recognized that pivot as the two channel lines crossed at that point (circled).
Subsequently, the top lines acted as support for the next nine days as gold attempted to go higher. Watch for similar or more bullish price action once gold gets above both lines. It is now above one line. But that line is more significant as it measures the larger rising parallel trend channel.
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4 weeks ago
Gold Continues to Find Buyers Along The Way
By: Christopher Lewis | May 10, 2024
• The gold markets continue to see a lot of buying at this point, as the week has been very strong for the yellow metal.
Gold Markets Weekly Technical Analysis
The gold markets have had a very strong week, and it looks like we continue to consolidate more than anything else. The market continues to use the $2,300 level as an area that offers massive support. And this is an area that I think a lot of people will be paying attention to. So, if we do get a pullback from here, I think buyers will jump in and try to take advantage of it. The market also will be paying close attention to the area just above the $2,400 level.
And if we can break above there, then it’s likely that the market will go looking to the $2,500 level. The $2,500 level will of course be a major round figure that a lot of people are going to be paying attention to as the market had shot straight up in the air and then has spent a couple of days to jump around. And therefore, I think you’ve got a situation where we may have a little bit of noise come into the picture, but given enough time, I do think that given the momentum that we had seen before that we will break out.
There are plenty of geopolitical concerns out there that will continue to drive gold higher. And then of course, everybody’s printing and they’re about to start cutting rates, which is the same thing. So, this really could send gold spiking higher over the longer term. Because of this, I believe that the markets will have to see a certain amount of a pullback to finally break higher, but it eventually will give enough time.
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1 month ago
Gold Price Forecast: What’s Next for the Precious Metal?
By: Bruce Powers | May 9, 2024
• A breakout above key resistance levels, including 2,347 and this week's high, could signal a sustained advance for gold, following its multi-year basing pattern breakout in March.
Gold showed strength today, rising to test resistance around the 20-Day MA with the day’s high of 2,342, at the time of this writing. That is an eight-day high for which it traded within a relatively tight range. Today’s high generates a new high for the consolidation range. Although it is a sign of short-term strength, it doesn’t change the near-term outlook. A daily close above the 20-Day MA at 2,335 would begin to do that. Also, after today’s session, a daily close above today’s high would also be a sign of strength that may lead to increased demand.
Testing Resistance
So, what happens next will be of interest. If gold moves above today’s high (also 20-Day MA), then higher prices may follow. But if today’s resistance holds and is followed by a pullback, a continuation of the retracement remains in play. Last week’s high of 2,347 is also an important near-term price level as a rally above it will trigger a bullish reversal in the weekly time frame. Currently, gold is set to complete this week as an inside week.
Therefore, starting next week a breakout above this week’s high would provide a bullish signal, keeping in mind that such a move would also exceed resistance around the 20-Day line. Buyers have regained control of silver following today’s rally above its 20-Day MA. This might be a warning that gold could be about to do the same. Price action will provide a guide.
Watching for Signs of Strength
Potential lower targets have been discussed in recent articles, so today let’s consider the upside potential. A decisive breakout above last week’s high of 2,347 will provide a bullish signal that could lead to higher prices, or above this week’s high once the week completes. Additional strength will be indicated on a rally above the most recent swing high on the daily chart at 2,352 (C). Once there is a daily close above the slightly higher level, the chance for a sustained advance improves.
Minor Retracement Shows Underlying Strength
When considering the larger picture. Gold broke out of a multi-year basing pattern in March and kept going until reaching the current record high of 2,431. If last week’s low of 2,277 is the completion of a retracement, it would reflect strong underlying demand for gold as buyers stepped up before a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement completed.
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1 month ago
Gold Bearish Bias Persists as Consolidation Persists
By: Bruce Powers | May 8, 2024
• Gold's price movements suggest a bearish bias, with key support levels and potential targets indicating a possible continuation of the current downtrend.
Gold continues to go nowhere as it further trades within a seven day price range on Wednesday. The stage is set for a continuation lower. A bearish bias remains given the breakdown from a bear flag last week. Gold also continued to fall away from the 20-Day MA, which was tested as resistance all this week. April 23 was the first decline below the 20-Day line since the rally began on February 29 with a breakout from a symmetrical triangle bottom pattern.
50-Day Moving Average is Key Lower Target
A key lower potential support level is around the 50-Day MA, currently at 2,251. It is close to converging with a Fibonacci confluence zone from 2,261 to 2,255. Together, they create a price range from 2,261 to 2,255. This will be a decision zone where there may be signs of support followed by a bullish reversal. However, there are lower price targets in the case that gold continues to retrace the previous advance.
Lower Targets if 50-Day Line Fails to Hold
The initial target from the bear flag pattern is at 2,238, while a falling ABCD pattern targets 2,212. That lower price level is given added significance by the 50% retracement at 2,208. It is important to be aware that the low support level from April was at 2,228. This means that if gold falls below 2,228 on the way to the lower price zone, it will have triggered a bearish move on the monthly chart. That would be a sign of weakness that could make it more difficult for the uptrend to recover without further consolidation or retracement.
Recognition of Rising Trend Channels
How down might gold go? There are two rising trend channels on the chart of gold. A larger one and smaller one. Gold remains within the boundaries of the smaller channel, that is within the larger channel. Last month there was a false breakout of both trend channels, leading to the current retracement. Typically, once a side of the channel has been tested as resistance in this case, the potential for gold to fall to test the lower channel line becomes possible. Of course, that would occur first on the smaller channel. But the price represented by the line will depend on when it is approached given its downward slope.
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1 month ago
Gold Continues to Build a Base Above $2300
By: Christopher Lewis | May 8, 2024
• The gold markets continue to see a lot of support just below, as the market will continue to try to build a bit of a base in this general area, just above the $2300 level.
Gold Markets Technical Analysis
The gold market fell initially during the trading session on Wednesday as the $2,300 level continues to cause quite a bit of support. All things being equal and all things being the same, I think that this is a market that sooner or later will continue to go higher, but we may be taking a little bit of a breather at this point.
Ultimately, this is a market that, given enough time, should see buyers coming in to try to take out the recent highs at the $2,400 level over the last week or so and then go looking to the $2,500 level. Underneath, I see a lot of support that extends down to the $2,250 level, which is also backed up by the 50 day EMA. With that being said, it does look a little bit like a bullish flag. And I think that bullish flag is something that you need to pay attention to, albeit a messy one.
It does suggest that gold markets do have another leg higher in them. It makes a lot of sense if you think about it, due to the fact that there have been major geopolitical concerns, and with that, gold will flourish anyway. Furthermore, we also have a situation where the governments around the world are borrowing massive amounts of money, including the United States. So therefore, that also tends to make gold a bit more attractive. I think at this point, you are just simply seeing consolidation before the continuation.
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1 month ago
Gold Sideways Trend Continues, Bear Flag Pattern Signals Potential Decline
By: Bruce Powers | May 7, 2024
• Gold remains in consolidation below key resistance levels, with a bearish flag pattern indicating potential for lower prices unless it rallies above recent highs.
Gold remains stuck in consolidation and has been trending sideways for the five days. Consolidation is occurring just below resistance represented by the purple 20-Day MA, currently at 2,330, and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 2,322. The 38.2% price zone previously represented support and now resistance. Further, gold remains under a bear flag that triggered a sharp decline starting with a break below 2,320 last Tuesday. Since then, recent price action has done nothing to negate the potential for a deeper pullback and lower prices indicated by the breakdown of the flag.
Bear Flag on Deck
The bear flag shows a small rising parallel trend channel. Each boundary line has three touches from price. There is symmetry represented in the pattern as the channel can be divided in half. In other words, it is a clear and solid pattern that has been broken. It shows a pause in the degree of selling that occurred prior to the flag’s formation. Therefore, a continuation lower is the most likely resolution and that has been indicated by the breakdown last week.
Nevertheless, a five-day pause below the breakdown level does not show selling pressure increasing. It leaves open the possibility of a failure of the bearish pattern. A failure would occur during an advance prior to new retracement lows. However, a rally above last week’s high of 2,347 would need to occur for signs of a failed bearish pennant.
Key Near-Term Support at 2,227
Support from the recent consolidation is at last week’s low of 2,227. The next bearish signal will be indicated on a drop below that price level. Calculating the measuring objective for the bear flag provides a minimum target of 2,238. However, the orange 50-Day MA has been rising as the price of gold consolidates. If it continues to consolidate for a while longer, the 50-Day line may join a slightly higher target zone from 2,261 to 2,255. If it does, the chance of hitting that price zone will increase. The 50-Day line is currently at 2,246.
There is also a lower potential target zone from around 2,212 to 2,208. However, last month’s low support was at 2,228. If this lower price zone is reached, then the monthly low would have been broken. A drop below a monthly low would diminish the current underlying bullishness that remains in the market.
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1 month ago
Gold Continues to See Strength
By: Christopher Lewis | May 6, 2024
• The gold market continues to see a lot of pressure to the upside, as the gold markets are being used to protect wealth against devaluation, and of course geopolitical issues around the world.
Gold Markets Technical Analysis
The gold market initially pulled back just a bit during the trading session on Monday, dipping below the 2,300 level, only to turn around and show signs of life. The market right now is looking at $2,320 as a little bit of a barrier, but I think given enough time, we probably go higher.
You will of course have to pay close attention to interest rates in the United States due to the fact that the Federal Reserve is still very much in the picture. And of course, people are worried about inflation, but at the same time that can actually help gold. You also have to keep in mind the geopolitical issues around the world, which can help gold. And quite frankly, just looking at the momentum on the chart helps gold.
So all things being equal, I think we are still very much in an uptrend when it comes to the gold market and therefore it’s a one-way trade you don’t want to be short of the gold market. Above we have the $2360 level and it’s a short-term barrier, but if we can break that, then I think we go looking to the $2400 level rather quickly, while underneath we have the 2280 dollars level offering significant support.
The 50-day EMA sits just below there as well and that of course comes into the picture for support and therefore I think it remains buy on the dip from a technical analysis standpoint as well. Quite frankly, fiat currencies around the world are being eviscerated as we just spend, spend, spend and that includes the US dollar. Yes, the US dollar is stronger than other currencies but that’s just in relation to other currencies. So, with that being said, the market looks like one you are still looking to buy.
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1 month ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | May 4, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 30, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 204.2k, up 1.3k.
Bids showed up this week well before testing horizontal support at $2,240s, which is where the 50-day now lies. Gold dropped 1.6 percent this week to $2,309/ounce, with Friday’s low tagging $2,285. This was the second weekly decline in a row.
The metal has been unwinding the overbought condition it is in since bottoming at $1,824 last October and at $1,996 as recently as February 14th. On April 12th, the metal printed a new intraday high of $2,449 but only to then reverse hard to close the session at $2,361.
The weekly remains overbought. At some point, gold bugs will be forced to defend breakout retest at $2,080s, which the yellow metal broke out of in early March. Right here and now, they have an opportunity to put their foot down. Nearest resistance lies at $2,350s.
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1 month ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | May 4, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 23086 and is trading up about 11% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it may now decline on the MONTHLY level. Immediately, this market has been rising for 6 months going into May suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Distinctly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 23380 and support forming below at 22962. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of April 8th at 24488, which was up 8 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 12th. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed lower. We are trading below the Weekly Momentum Indicators warning that the decline is very significant and we need to pay attention to the timing and reversals. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 24488 made 3 weeks ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 17100 and 27120. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of April 8th has been important closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 20832 made back during the week of January 29th. Nonetheless, that high was actually lower than the previous high made the week of December 25th suggesting this market has really been running out of sustainable buying for right now. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 19964 made the week of February 12th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 11 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 17 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 20030 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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1 month ago
Gold Technical Signals Point to Potential Downside
By: Bruce Powers | May 3, 2024
• Despite holding support around the 50% retracement level, gold faces more technical bearish signs, with a bear flag pattern indicating potential for lower levels ahead.
Although gold reached a new retracement low of 2,277, it continues to find support around the 50% retracement level. It is set to end Friday above the 50% retracement for the third day in a row, which is at 2,289. However, there remains more technical bearish signs than bullish indications currently, as it is in the process of retracing prior gains.
Bear Flag Continuation Potential Remains
A bear flag trend continuation pattern triggered on Tuesday and gold closed weak, near the low of the day and below the prior April 23 (B) swing low. That is a bearish sign indicating that it wants to go lower. However, rather than continue lower following the bearish signal, for the past three days gold has been consolidating around Tuesday’s price range instead. Nonetheless, price patterns are indicating lower support levels will likely be tested before the larger bull trend is ready to resume. An advance above last week’s high of 2,352 (C) would be needed to change that outlook.
Several Lower Targets
The next potential support area below this week’s low is a range of Fibonacci levels from 2,261 to 2,255. But that may be an interim level as the 50-Day MA has not been tested as support since the February 29 symmetrical triangle breakout. Since the 20-Day MA has failed to hold as support, the 50-Day line becomes a target. It is currently at 2,234, and very close to an initial target derived from the bear flag measurements. That pattern indicates a potential target of 2,238. Be aware that April saw support at a low of 2,228.
Support From April at 2,228
If the next lower price zone is to be reached this month, a bearish month signal will have triggered. If that happens, sellers could get more aggressive and drive prices lower. Below the 50-Day line there is the completion of a falling ABCD pattern at 2,212 and a 50% retracement level at 2,208. That would be the price area to watch for support if the 50-Day line is broken followed by April’s low.
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