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Clem Chambers, the CEO of ADVFN, assured me that I could write what I liked here. The idea of being able to write with total freedom had a certain novel appeal and so far I have tested him with the odd swear word but not a lot else. Tonight as he and I both receive a fatwa for what follows let’s see how he feels.
My cue for today’s epistle is an announcement from Centamin, the LSE and TSX listed gold miner which I first tipped at 8p on www.t1ps.com and where I advised banking mega gains at 134p ( yup despite what some morons post on the ADVFN and iii Bulletin Boards I do serve up more than the odd bloody amazing share tip). At the time of me helping my readers to a mega-gain there were howls of anguish from folks who had fallen in love with Centamin. The howlers now ask, with the shares at 66.5p (off 10% today) surely it is time to get back in? Er …. not so sure.
Is Centamin cheap? Well based purely on how much gold it is sitting on and probable future cashflows it is perhaps worth 150p per share, maybe more. Except that its gold is in Egypt where even someone as thick as Louise Mensch MP will have noticed, there have been a few recent political changes.
In the good old days when Egypt was ruled by the repressive kleptocrat Mubarak doing business was easy. There was a rule of law which everyone stuck to. You filled in the forms and signed the contracts and handed over a few brown envelopes and off you went. Every now and again you had to hand over another few brown envelopes but life was pretty good. You knew the rules (official and unofficial) and could play ball.
And then the fools who run the Western nations (Call Me Dave, the preposterous buffoons from the EU, the vile Clinton Woman and Obama) decided to ignore the lessons of history and intervene to encourage their former friend Hosni to seek early retirement. The chattering classes of the West were delighted that old Mubarak was set to be replaced by all those nice young people protesting about his wickedness on twitter and facebook. Needless to say, and I predicted this at the time, the people of Egypt have now spoken and elected as their new rulers The Muslim Brotherhood who are a bunch of Jew hating Islamo-fascists ( sweating yet Clem?).
I have written elsewhere about blowback, the unintended and invariably adverse consequences of Western intervention in the affairs of other nations. As we prepare to balls it up in a similar way in Syria, if you care to read more from me on this matter you can do so HERE.
And so we come to Centamin. Its shares are, as I noted, off by 10% today as it announced:
“Centamin notes that an un-named government source was quoted in a local Egyptian paper as stating there were breaches of the concession agreement. Centamin confirms that there have been no such breaches, no notice of breaches have been served and operations at Sukari continue as normal.”
Hmmm. Well that all sounds sort of re-assuring. Not. The rules have changed in Egypt but the only problem is that we do not know exactly what sort of rules (official and unofficial) we will all have to play by going forward. The big question is just how mad are the Islamo-fascist Muslim Brotherhood? For the avoidance of doubt the vast majority of Muslims are not mad, bad, dangerous or extreme. It just happens that a material minority are all of the above and there is a worrying tendency for those in the minority to gain power over the majority.
How mad can they get? Well let’s go back to 1979 Iran and take a few readings from the Blue Book of the late lamented Ayatollah Khomeni. We might start with:
“If a man marries a minor who has reached the age of nine and if during the defloration he immediately breaks the hymen, he cannot enjoy her any longer.”
9 year old girls not your bag?
“it is loathsome to eat the meat of horse and mule and donkey and if somebody makes coitus with them, that is an intercourse, they become unlawful and they must be taken out of the city and sold elsewhere.”
So no chance of a long term relationship with my sheep then? Good job the Ayatollah never took control of Wales – it would have caused national heartbreak. But at least in Iran you can find a good new home for your lover. Unless…
“If they have intercourse with a cow and sheep and camel their urine and dung becomes unclean and drinking their milk will also be unlawful and they must be killed and burned without delay, and the person who had intercourse with them must pay money to the owner. Further, if he had intercourse with any beast its milk becomes unlawful.”
And it was not just on matters of sex that Khomeni threw Iran back to a pre-historic age. He had odd views on a whole range of things including doing business with the Western infidel. It is just that his views on sex are rather entertaining.
Ok, old Khomeni was a bit of an extremist, even by the standards of other Islamo-fascist extremists but he shows the potential for what might just happen in Egypt. Or you might get a more moderate version of Islamo-fascism (girls not allowed to be married off until they reach 10 and you cannot shag your neighbour’s sheep and camels, just your own but must sell them afterwards?) The truth is that we do not know. And nor do we have the slightest idea about the conditions under which Centamin and others must operate if they are allowed to operate at all.
The Theocratic regimes which the Middle East has thrown up in recent years do not give a hoot if they return their folks to living in the stone age. So please do not tell me that Egypt’s rulers are keen to preserve their relationship with companies such as Centamin because they appreciate the need for Western capital and skills to advance their nation. Life is just not like that.
Now it may well be that the Muslim Brotherhood turn out to be the acceptable face of Islamo-fascism and content themselves with ranting about Jews, hanging homosexuals and purging the country of beach place semi nudity (i.e. anyone not fully clothed ) and alcohol. So much for the country’s tourist industry but Centamin could carry on regardless under such conditions. But it might not end up that way. And that is why, from now onwards, Centamin shares will always continue to look extremely cheap benchmarked against any peer group company not operating in Egypt. I will not be re-tipping the stock.
I think the disappointment expressed by some people is that many of the recent tips have done very badly indeed. And they have, haven´t they??
Also RIVP was a major shock. You must acknowledge that, I feel.
Does Jim Mellon still rate you?……..after all, I believe his opinion counts for something, or?
Dear Larissa,
How good of you to keep in touch. It seems as if this post is remarkably similar to a couple you made earlier but since my role in life is to satisfy as many women as possible I shall answer once again. It is not unusual for women to come back for more and it is my pleasure to keep you entertained. Should that be it is my entertainment to keep you pleasured?
Small caps have had a dire 2 years. My tips have suffered accordingly. Some have gone up , quite a lot have not and the odd one has cratered. I am all too aware of what life is like in a bear market. Of course there are lies, damned lies, statistics and the crap spouted by anonymous tools on Bulletin Boards. Contrary to what you may read elsewhere on ADVFN, my 12 year recod at t1ps ( over 2 bear markets and 1 bull run) is actually rather good. I suggest you check out the hard facts as we continue this dialogue.
Rivington yes a bit of a shock. I have lost a paper forune of £6m and my job. If you wish to console me I can squeeze you in at about 3 PM today (GMT). I am in Room 105.
What does Jim think? I have no idea. Last time we chatted it was about women and relationships and was very amicable. His opinion counts for something as does everyones. Feel free to ask him yourself.
Once again thank you for your feedback. See you at 3?
Tom Winnifrith
Larissa don’t bother. I have been there and Tom’s performance was as poor as his tipping over the last couple of years!
If I was to search for a compliment it would be that as with his 2 main funds, that have both come last in the peformance tables against their peers over the last year or so, did he on that fateful afternoon!
Hahaha Tom you are too much. Let me know if she shows up :-)
Great article by the way .
Frankie
With a name like that I suspect you are not quite my bag. So that is 1 clear innaccuracy in your comment .. and its not the only one!
But thanks as ever for taking the time to offer feedback, it is always appreciated.
Tom Winnifrith
Karen
Many thanks on article. So far no sign that Larissa planning to pop in – so if you are inviting yourself as a replacement there may be a vacancy. Will keep you posted.
Tom Winnifrith
Tom you must have led a sheltered life. Frankie is short for Francine! As to any supposed inaccuracies I would be interested to know what they are.
You really are quite rude.
How strange that you start going on about sex.
The readers will no doubt make up their minds wrt to yr continual backing for stocks where management continually underperforms.
It is correct you have lost your job.
Maybe more importantly, your reputation.
I will leave it at that.
What a strange article. I hope that is the only article Clem lets you write.
George,
I fear he has just let me write another. You do not have to read any of them but thank you for being a reader while it lasted.
Larissa, I guess that means you won’t be popping around at 3 then? Karen I guess you are in.
Larissa, you do seem focussed on repeating the same point over and over again re failing managements. I have suggested before that you look at the 12 year track record and thus form an objective view ( most managements I backed delivered) rather than obsessing about something that is incorrect. Thank you again for your comments.
Francine, blow me down with a feather. There was I amagining I was speaking to the late mad Framkie Fraser ( I think he is dead) who might bash me over the head with an axe, Frankie Howard who might say ooo er missues, wouldn’t mind a hot tip from you, ooo er, or Frankie Dettori.
I apologise for saying that you were a man but I think the first innacuracy is that we have never met, at least in the context you suggest, the funds – yes I had a dire last year. The year before I did very well and was Alpha rated. Sadly there was to be no year 3 decider! Thank you for your comments too.
wanker
TW wife – what a charming moniker you made up and pithy turn of phrase to boot. It is always a pleasure to engage in such high level constructive dialogue with my readers.
Keep reading
Tom Winnifrith
“Winnifrith is the worst-performing FE Alpha Manager of 2011, with losses of 32.18 per cent year-to-date. This compares with -11.58 per cent from his manager peer group and -7.41 per cent from the average FE Alpha Manager.”
http://chelsea.trustnet.com/News/Research.aspx?id=296319
Mr ( Mrs/Not Decided yet) cowardly anonymous poster akaThe Facts:
And in 2010? I think at the other end of league. As I noted before there us to be no 2012 decider.
The thing about facts is that if you use them selectively you can justify anything. You pluck out 1 year I provide balance by pointing out both years. That is why you are a cowardly anonymous BB troll whose views will be dismissed by anyone with half a brain cell. And I am not.
As ever thank you for reading this blog and for your amusing, if unbalanced ( I guess you are probably used to being unbalanced) contribution
Best wishes
Tom Winnifrith