Conference Board's Employment Trends Index Signals Jobs Growth
February 06 2023 - 10:51AM
Dow Jones News
By Robb M. Stewart
U.S. labor-market indicators point to jobs growth in the coming
months, according to an index gauging trends.
The Conference Board said Monday that its Employment Trends
Index rose to 118.74 in January from an upwardly revised 117.06 the
January's reading marks a second month in a row of growth,
reversing a short-lived decline in 2022.
The employment trends index is a leading composite measure for
employment that aggregates eight indicators. When the index
increases, employment is likely to increase as well, whole turning
points in the index suggest a change in the number of jobs is
likely in the short term.
The indicator was published after the U.S. Labor Department's
employment report on Friday showed broad-based hiring in the U.S.
added 517,000 jobs in January and pushed the unemployment rate to a
53-year low of 3.4%.
"Despite rapid interest rate hikes, which were expected to
reduce labor demand, we haven't seen widespread layoffs," said
Selcuk Eren, senior economist at the Conference Board.
Mr. Eren said hiring was outsized and broadly based in the
January employment report, and robust hiring continues to keep the
Employment Trends Index at a very high level.
Seven of the eight components that form the index advanced in
January, including initial claims for unemployment, real
manufacturing and trade sales, industrial production, and job
"Labor shortages will continue to be the theme going forward,"
Mr. Eren said.
"We have seen job gains in industries-including leisure and
hospitality and government, where employment is still below
prepandemic levels. Likewise, job openings and voluntary quits are
below their historic highs but still above prepandemic levels," he
Mr. Eren added the number of employees working in temporary help
services, a component of the Employment Trends Index and a leading
indicator for hiring, increased in January after falling for two
Write to Robb M. Stewart at firstname.lastname@example.org
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 06, 2023 10:36 ET (15:36 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2023 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.