BROOKLYN, N.Y., May 16, 2022
/PRNewswire/ -- First Street Foundation today released the
First Street Foundation Wildfire Model, the only nationwide,
probabilistic, climate adjusted, peer reviewed, property specific
wildfire risk model for properties in the contiguous United States. Detailed in the 5th National
Risk Assessment: Fueling the Flames, the model provides a first of
its kind analysis of the risk individual properties face from
damaging wildfires today, and up to 30 years in the future as a
result of climate changes.
Nationwide, the report finds nearly 20 million properties face
"Moderate" risk, (up to a 6% chance of experiencing a wildfire over
30 years); 6 million properties face "Major" risk (up to 14% risk
over 30 years); nearly 3 million face "Severe" risk (up to 26% over
30 years); and approximately 1.5 million face "Extreme" risk
(greater than 26% risk over 30 years). Over 49 million properties
face less than 1% chance of experiencing a wildfire over a 30-year
period, or "Minor" risk in the model.
Wildfire has become one of the most common and dangerous climate
perils, increasingly spreading from heavily forested areas to more
populous urban and suburban environments. According to NOAA, damage
associated with wildfires has grown substantially, with
$81.7 billion, or 66% of all direct
losses since 1980, occurring in the last five years. Yet today,
neither the public nor private sector have developed a simple
methodology or tool to help homeowners, buyers or renters
understand a property's wildfire risk, and make informed decisions
to protect them.
Existing tools like USDA Forest Service's wildfire risk
assessment are designed to help fire officials understand how risk
varies across a state, region, or county; it is explicitly not
meant to help homeowners understand their personal risk. To address
this gap, First Street Foundation will make this critical wildfire
risk information available to users for free through Risk
FactorTM, where Fire FactorTM data will be
presented alongside Flood Factor® and other future perils, giving
users a comprehensive understanding of their homes from physical
climate risk today and 30 years into the future. Like Flood Factor,
Fire Factor data will be integrated into
Realtor.com®, providing visitors to the site a property-level
wildfire risk assessment in the form of a risk ranking from 1
(Minimal) to 10 (Extreme) for each property on the site. Users
interested in commercial real estate can also find this data
integrated with Crexi®.
"The lack of a property specific, climate adjusted wildfire risk
for individual properties has severely hindered everyone from the
federal government to your average American," said Matthew Eby, Founder and Executive Director of
First Street Foundation. "As a changing climate drives more
frequent and severe wildfire events, Fire Factor will prove
critical in ensuring everyone has the insights they need to
understand their personal risk to avoid and protect against the
devastating impact of a wildfire."
"According to a recent Realtor.com® survey, seven out
of ten recent homebuyers considered the risk of natural disasters
when deciding where to live. Realtor.com® is adding Fire
Factor to maps and properties to help home shoppers and homeowners
make informed decisions," said Sara
Brinton, Lead Product Manager, Realtor.com®.
"Wildfire risk information empowers consumers to protect their
homes against the increasing threat of wildfire damage."
Building the model brought together top climate and data
scientists, technologists, and modelers from other leading
organizations; the Spatial Informatics Group, Reax Engineering, and
Eagle Rock Analytics who are members of the Pyregrence Consortium
as well as the USGS, and architectural design & engineering
consulting group Arup. This group combined decades of peer
reviewed research and expertise in next-generation modeling
techniques to create an open source, freely available wildfire
model that accounts for current and future climate conditions.
First Street Foundation First Street Foundation is a
nonprofit 501(c)(3) research and technology group working to define
America's growing climate risk.
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content:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/first-street-foundation-finds-over-30-4-million-properties-have-a-1-or-greater-chance-of-experiencing-a-wildfire-during-the-course-of-a-mortgage-301547498.html
SOURCE First Street Foundation