European stocks drifted lower on uncertainty about the economic
outlook and as investors fretted over Chinese property group
Evergrande's potential debt default.
Miners were weaker on lower commodity prices, while a broad
range of companies issued earnings and trading updates against a
backdrop of doubts about the impact of the coronavirus delta
variant and supply chain disruptions.
"Investors' appetite for riskier assets remains uncertain as a
positive earnings season so far offsets concerns about slowing
growth and uneven recoveries, caused by supply-chain disruption and
the energy crisis," said ActivTrades analyst Pierre Veyret.
Stocks to Watch:
Deutsche Bank could become a cash return story, said UBS,
upgrading its recommendation on the stock to buy from neutral.
Consensus is too conservative on the German bank's ability to
return capital, said UBS. The bank's 2022 goal of returning EUR5
billion in capital looks realistic even when assuming below-target
profits, and yet consensus views don't factor this in, said
"Our cash return assumptions 2022-25E are 80% above consensus
[EUR5.5 billion versus consensus at EUR3 billion]."
UBS raised its price target on the stock to EUR13.50 from
Central banks are explicitly or implicitly confronted with
several conflicting objectives, said Erste Asset Management. These
objectives include keeping inflation at a low level in the medium
term and achieving full employment, not jeopardizing financial
stability and public debt dynamics by raising interest rates
sharply, and supporting the fight against climate change.
In a possible trade-off, key interest rates could be raised too
little so as not to jeopardize financial stability and public debt
dynamics, said Stephanie Clam Martinic, senior fund manager.
"Inflation could then get out of hand, and ultimately the
central bank would react too late to inflation and stifle economic
growth with the necessary rate hikes," she said, adding that this
scenario could lead to a structural stagflationary environment.
Markets have to adjust to a world without emergency fiscal and
monetary policy support, said Neuberger Berman.
More spending is still to come from the U.S. government and
NextGeneration EU funds are starting to be disbursed in Europe,
"but overall, the fiscal impulse is likely to turn negative over
the course of 2022, after being strongly positive in 2020 and
2021," said Joseph Amato, president and chief investment officer
Central bank tapering is expected in the coming months and
markets have pulled forward their estimate for the first interest
rate rise by the Federal Reserve to the third quarter of 2022,
although Amato is skeptical whether the Fed will move that fast,
while the Bank of England looks set to raise rates before
The European Central Bank's monetary policy meeting next
Thursday will be an important signpost as markets look for a signal
on the pre-announced policy decision at the December meeting, said
Goldman Sachs, which doesn't expect any policy decisions.
The ECB is expected to acknowledge near-term headwinds to
economic activity and reiterate that it will look through a
transitory surge in inflation, but signal upside risks to the
medium-term inflation outlook, said Goldman Sachs. "But we think
the [Governing] Council will stop short of characterizing market
pricing as inconsistent with the ECB's forward guidance."
Stock indexes were poised for muted opening losses as investors
awaited another batch of earnings reports and data on the labor
Stocks have risen in recent days, after solid earnings helping
quell concerns that sent markets lower at the start of fall. Among
those worries: A slowdown in China's economy, supply-chain
blockages that have hampered sectors such as manufacturing and
inflation pressures that could prompt central banks to withdraw
Of the 80 companies on the S&P 500 to have reported through
Wednesday, 81% had topped analysts' earnings forecasts, according
to FactSet, better than three-quarters that did so each quarter in
"We've gone through a period of hesitation that's brought a bit
of volatility but I think stocks will keep trending higher," said
Paul Jackson, head of asset allocation research at Invesco. He
expects households to keep spending savings accumulated during the
A slew of earnings reports Thursday will offer clues about
consumer spending habits. Southwest Airlines, American Airlines and
AT&T will report financial results before the opening bell,
while Chipotle Mexican Grill and Whirlpool will do so after markets
On the economic front, data due at 1230 GMT are expected to show
jobless claims remained near pandemic lows for the week ended Oct.
16. Figures from earlier in the month show companies have been
holding on tightly to existing employees while hiring is
Existing-home sales are expected to have rebounded in September
after an August slowdown. The data are scheduled for 1400 GMT.
The dollar was slightly higher and Morgan Stanley said it stands
to benefit from higher oil prices.
Forex strategist James Lord said the currency used to have a
negative relationship with oil prices when the U.S. was a big
energy importer but that is no longer the case, as the country has
become self-sufficient. The prospect of the Federal Reserve taking
action in response to energy-led price pressures will also support
the dollar, Lord said.
"The Fed is quite sensitive to inflation and inflation
expectations at the moment so I think as oil prices go up, it will
put more pressure on the Fed to sound more hawkish compared to
other central banks."
Recent weakness in havens such as the yen and the dollar may be
limited by renewed concerns about Evergrande after the sale of its
property-management unit was abandoned. This has increased pressure
on Evergrande to raise cash elsewhere, as the 30-day grace period
on some of its interest payments comes to an end this week, said
The euro should be an ideal funding currency this autumn unless
the European Central Bank unexpectedly changes its accommodative
policy stance, said ING.
"EUR implied yields remain deeply negative and some of the
commodity currencies are backed by very attractive yields these
days-- particularly the [Russian] ruble," said ING analyst Chris
The ECB is likely to raise interest rates later than that priced
in by markets, said Mohammed Kazmi, macro strategist at UBP.
The market has priced in an ECB interest rate rise by the end of
next year but UBP sees this as a move that has gone in sympathy
with the repricing of the BOE and the Fed, said Kazmi.
"Instead, ECB lift off will likely be much more delayed and as
such, we could see European front end rates outperform U.K. and
U.S. rates as markets stabilise," he said. UBP's short duration
preference remains focused on the front end of the U.S. rates
Eurozone government bond yields were little changed, showing
tentative signs of stabilization after highly volatile trading
earlier this week.
"The stabilization once again seems shallow, and soothing ECB
comments still remain out of sight," said Commerzbank's rates
Government bond supply will be significant, as Spain will
auction EUR4.5 billion-EUR5.5 billion, launching a new January
2027-dated bond and reopening a 2037-dated one, while France will
offer EUR7.75 billion-EUR9.25 billion in conventional and
Treasury yields remained elevated, with the 10-year note yield
holding at a five-month high following Wednesday's 20-year auction
and the Beige Book report, which indicated the U.S. economy was
growing at a "modest to moderate rate" amid a low supply of workers
and elevated prices.
Bond investors are particularly attuned to the prospects of a
potentially faster pace of Fed tapering, which would suggest that
the central bank may be inclined to raise interest rates faster
than expected to quell intensifying pricing pressures.
Pimco expects bonds to continue to provide diversification
benefits in terms of overall asset allocation.
"While return expectations should be muted across asset classes,
there are states of the world in which bonds could outperform
equities--especially on the basis of return per unit of
A period of high inflation is not Pimco's baseline outlook,
nonetheless. It remains of the view that Treasury
inflation-protected securities, or TIPS, commodities and other real
assets make sense to help hedge against inflation risks.
"Although we see upside risks to interest rates over the short
term as economies continue to recover, over the secular horizon we
expect rates to remain relatively range-bound, enabling lower but
positive returns for core bond allocations."
Oil futures were lower in Europe, giving back the modest gains
made Wednesday after the EIA released bullish weekly data,
according to ING's Warren Patterson.
Crude stocks at the key distribution hub of Cushing, which was
in danger of running out of storage space last spring, are now at
their lowest since 2018.
"Continued strength in oil prices means that pressure on OPEC+
to pump more will only grow," Patterson said. He said that while
the U.S., India and Japan have all called for more crude, "the
reluctance of OPEC+ to pump more in the short term suggests that
oil prices will remain well supported...this year."
Gold prices were flat, with the precious metal caught between a
stronger dollar and investors' concerns about stagflation.
Concerns about rising inflation and flagging growth could keep
the metal-supported in the coming months, said Giovanni Staunovo, a
strategist at UBS. "Inflation expectations are rising and growth
expectations softening for the short run." He added, however, that
stagnation concerns will likely be short-lived as the Fed is likely
to raise rates.
UBS expects gold prices to edge down to $1,700 an ounce by the
end of the first quarter of next year, falling to $1,600 an ounce
by the end of 2022.
DOW JONES NEWSPLUS
Barclays Profit Rises on Investment Banking
Barclays PLC said its net profit more than doubled in the third
quarter, driven by a continued strong performance at its investment
ABB Cuts 2021 Guidance as Revenue Hit by Supply-Chain
ABB Ltd. cut its full-year guidance as a tight supply chain bit
into its revenue, despite orders climbing, the company said at its
The Swiss engineering company said Thursday that it anticipates
comparable revenue growth in 2021 of 6%-8%, down from "just below"
10% previously, as supply chains continued to impact customer
Unilever 3Q Underlying Sales Rose, Backs Margin Guidance Despite
Unilever PLC said Thursday that third-quarter underlying sales
rose on good growth in its priority markets of the U.S., China and
India, development of online shopping channels and growth of
The Anglo-Dutch retailer--which owns consumer brands such as Ben
& Jerry's ice cream and Dove soap--said quarterly underlying
sales rose 2.5% year-on-year, and that turnover increased to 13.5
billion euros ($15.7 billion). This compares with turnover of
EUR12.9 billion in the year-earlier period.
Anglo American 3Q Production Rose 2% Driven by Iron Ore,
Anglo American PLC said Thursday that its third-quarter
production increased 2%, and narrowed guidance for diamonds, copper
and iron ore to the lower end of the range.
The miner produced 16.9 million metric tons of iron ore in the
three months through September, up 15% from a year earlier driven
by the Minas-Rio operations in Brazil.
Hermes 3Q Revenue Surged on China Sales, Europe Tourism
Hermes International SCA's revenue rose strongly in the third
quarter, driven by sales in Greater China and the return of
tourists to European cities.
The French luxury-fashion company on Thursday posted revenue of
2.37 billion euros ($2.76 billion) in the quarter, an increase of
31% at constant currency from the EUR1.8 billion it booked in the
same period last year, and 40% higher over two years.
Russia Orders People Not to Go to Work as Covid-19 Deaths
MOSCOW-Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered people to stay
off work for at least a week while Latvia has introduced a
monthlong Covid-19 lockdown as deaths climb, driving renewed fears
of another wave of infections as winter sets in.
Mr. Putin signed a decree Wednesday approving a period of
nonworking days, as the government calls them, beginning Oct. 30
and stretching to Nov. 7 to encourage people to stay home and slow
the spread of the virus. Regional governments where infection rates
are especially virulent can speed up or prolong the measures, with
employers continuing to pay their staffs as they stay home.
China Evergrande Calls Off Plans to Sell Key Unit for $2.6
SINGAPORE-China Evergrande Group called off plans to sell a
majority stake in its property-management unit for the equivalent
of $2.6 billion, a major setback in the real-estate giant's
attempts to ease its liquidity crunch.
The cash-strapped developer said Wednesday that it had planned
to sell 50.1% of the profitable subsidiary, Evergrande Property
Services Group Ltd., to a unit of rival developer Hopson
Development Holdings Ltd.
Chinese Developer Defaults Pile Up as Evergrande Contagion
HONG KONG-The pain is spreading in the market for Chinese junk
Dollar-bond defaults from Chinese property developers are rising
quickly as the country's housing market slumps, and the problem
could worsen as a wave of debt from the beleaguered industry comes
due in the coming months.
Tight Labor Market Keeps Jobless Claims Near Pandemic Lows
Unemployment claims are trending near the lowest levels since
the Covid-19 pandemic hit in the spring of 2020, as companies are
reluctant to lay off workers amid labor shortages.
Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal estimate jobless
claims ticked up to 300,000 last week from a pandemic low of
293,000 a week earlier. Claims, a proxy for layoffs, are holding
well below a recent peak of 424,000 in mid-July but remain above
2019's weekly average of 218,000.
Crypto Miners Struggle to Cut Carbon Emissions
Bitcoin mining has earned a bad reputation for guzzling cheap
electricity in the pursuit of profit. Now bitcoin miners are trying
to go green, to a point.
Companies that mine bitcoin are aiming to power their computers
with renewable energy or sign up for data centers that rely on the
sun or wind. Falling prices for renewables and rising prices for
bitcoin make it possible to still earn a profit.
Critics Blast Private Equity at Senate Hearing
At a Senate hearing Wednesday, private-equity critics denounced
what they characterized as buyout managers' abusive practices, as
some Democratic lawmakers seek to rein in the rapidly growing
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) led the hearing of the U.S.
Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs, at which
workers, an academic and a state treasurer loosed volleys of
criticism against private-equity managers and asked lawmakers to
increase federal oversight of them.
Fed Official Says Lingering Inflation Could Change Interest-Rate
A top Federal Reserve official warned that extended high
inflation through next spring could force the central bank to
consider raising interest rates sooner than anticipated.
Fed governor Randal Quarles said Wednesday he still expects
higher prices to ease next year as bottlenecks and supply-chain
disruptions fade. If the Fed raised rates in response to recent
price surges driven by the economic reopening, the central bank
could constrict demand at the same moment that supply bottlenecks
abate, Mr. Quarles said during a moderated discussion at a
conference in Los Angeles. That could lead to undesirably low
levels of inflation and employment.
U.S. Growth Slowed in Recent Months Amid Elevated Prices, Fed's
Beige Book Says
U.S. economic growth slowed to a modest to moderate rate this
fall as firms confronted supply-chain disruptions, elevated prices,
a shortage of available workers and fears around the Delta variant
of Covid-19, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday.
Many businesses said they expected higher prices and supply
shortages to last another year or so. The report, known as the
Beige Book, collects anecdotes from businesses in Fed districts
around the country.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
October 21, 2021 05:54 ET (09:54 GMT)
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