MARKET WRAPS

Watch For:

U.S. Personal Income & Outlays for June; U.S. Employment Cost Index for 2Q; U.S. Chicago Business Barometer for July; U.S. University of Michigan Final Consumer Survey for July; Canada Gross Domestic Product for May; Enbridge Inc. 2Q earnings; Procter & Gamble 4Q earnings; Chevron 2Q earnings; Exxon Mobil Corp. 2Q earnings; Caterpillar Inc. 2Q earnings.

Opening Call:

Stock futures fell Friday, suggesting that the S&P 500 may end the week on the back foot on its way to close out its sixth straight month of gains.

Futures tied to the S&P 500 declined, pointing to the broad market benchmark erasing the 0.2% rise that it had eked out this week through Thursday. Still, the gauge has advanced 2.8% so far in July, leaving it close to an all-time high.

The monthslong rally in U.S. stocks has grown fragile in recent weeks on signs that the pace of economic growth may be slowing and snarls in the global supply chain for goods are persisting. Lingering concerns over China's clampdown on its internet and technology businesses as well as lofty expectations for corporate earnings has weighed on sentiment this week.

Amazon.com's disappointing sales report late Thursday and weaker outlook rattled Wall Street further, investors say.

"There are so many crosscurrents going on at the moment influencing markets," said Sebastian Mackay, a multiasset fund manager at Invesco. "We've entered a more volatile period for markets, but markets will continue to move higher because we're still seeing economic growth."

Amazon.com shares fell over 6% premarket after the giant retailer reported second-quarter sales that were slightly below analysts' expectations, and signaled that it expects sales to slow further in the current quarter. The results highlighted the challenge of sustaining the unfettered growth it has logged during the pandemic.

Ahead of the market opening, other giant growth stocks including Facebook and Tesla slid more than 1% apiece. Apple, Microsoft and Alphabet edged down by less than 1%. The tech sector makes up a big component of U.S. markets, and a decline in those stocks can weigh on the S&P 500 index.

Another batch of blue-chip corporate earnings are set to be released before markets open, with Caterpillar, Procter & Gamble, Exxon Mobil and Chevron slated to report.

The Commerce Department is also set to release data on June consumer spending and inflation at 8:30 a.m. ET. Investors and central bankers have closely monitored inflation reports and indicators as they assess whether price increases will persist for a prolonged period.

Overseas, the pan-continental Stoxx Europe 600 slid 0.5%, though it remains on track to end July with gains.

The selloff this week in Hong Kong due to the recent regulatory crackdown in China also continued, with the city's Hang Seng Index declining almost 1.4% by the close on Friday. The index has shed 9.9% in July, its biggest monthly drop since October 2018.

Forex:

The dollar is likely to recover after falling on profit taking following the Federal Reserve's policy announcement on Wednesday, ING said.

The Fed's extra "hawkishness" in signalling that it is moving closer towards tapering asset purchases was largely in the dollar's price and may have prompted some profit taking, ING analysts said. "We wouldn't read too much into the recent USD correction or conclude this is a sign that the greenback's momentum may have peaked already."

The global recovery looks "mixed at best" and China-related sentiment remains volatile due to fears of more regulatory clampdowns, which could boost safe haven flows into the dollar, the analysts said.

Speculators appear to be rebuilding bets on a stronger sterling ahead of the Bank of England's next policy meeting on August 5, ING said.

The pound has recently been buoyed by a fall in U.K. coronavirus cases and is set to end the week as one of the best performing G10 currencies, ING analysts said, noting that GBP/USD has risen about 1.7% since last Friday.

"At the same time...GBP/USD appears to be mostly a function of the dollar's moves: if it looks too early to see a break above 1.1900 in EUR/USD, it equally looks early to see any move above 1.4000 in Cable [GBP/USD]."

The euro stayed higher against the dollar after data showed the eurozone economy grew by more than forecast in the second quarter and inflation accelerated at a faster-than-expected pace in July.

Bonds:

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note ticked down to 1.242% from 1.269% Thursday.

U.S. Treasury yields now discount an "unduly pessimistic view" of the medium- to long-term outlook, Jonas Goltermann, senior markets economist at Capital Economics, said.

Another shock coming along can't be excluded and worries about these possibilities explain at least some of the recent drop in bond yields, he said.

"But absent those risks actually materializing, we continue to expect that Treasury yields will eventually resume their rise," he says. CE forecasts the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to end 2021 at 1.75% and rise to 2.5% by the end of 2023, Goltermann says.

Financial markets are known to overshoot, and as regards government bond markets, ING is of the view that the move down in yields has been "a lot more" exaggerated than on the way up.

The Fedand the European Central Bank continue to buy $120 billion and EUR100 billion, respectively, in assets per month, and in the best of times, this has a distorting effect on rates, said ING's senior rates strategist Antoine Bouvet. "In illiquid summer months, these distortions are magnified," he says.

Commodities:

Oil prices were lower, though both benchmarks are on course to close out the week with gains of 1% and 1.8%, respectively. Those gains came after upbeat data from the EIA and API earlier in the week showing tightening inventories in the U.S.

That, plus a weaker dollar--dollar-denominated commodities such as oil become less expensive for other currency holders when the dollar drops--are behind oil's gains this week, ING's Warren Patterson said.

A rise in the dollar is behind Friday's gentle losses, and Patterson says that given the some weakness in heavier crude markets, there's little to justify further gains for futures prices.

Gold was mostly flat alongside expectations that the Fed won't abandon its accommodative monetary policies anytime soon, Oanda said, pointing to U.S. economic data that fell short of its expectations.

"A downside surprise in both GDP and jobless claims justifies the Fed's dovish stance," it said. "That should provide a short-term bullish environment for bullion."

Oanda said that if gold can exceed the $1,850/oz resistance level, technical buying could support a strong rally back toward the $1,900/oz.

   
 
 

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

China's Tech Crackdown Could Backfire Badly

In the superhero movie "Avengers: Infinity War," antagonist Thanos snaps his fingers and half of life in the universe instantly disappears. After the rout of the past few days, that may sound horribly familiar to investors in certain Chinese educational and internet technology stocks.

The big question is what comes next.

Read More ->

Tesla Megapack Catches Fire at Australian Battery Project

SYDNEY-A Tesla Megapack caught fire at one of Australia's largest battery storage projects on Friday, as fire crews worked to prevent it spreading across the site in Victoria state.

Flames engulfed a lithium battery weighing 13 metric tons that was housed within a shipping container at the site in Moorabool, near Melbourne, according to a statement from Fire Rescue Victoria.

Read More ->

Household Spending Likely Rose in June, Before Delta Variant Upswing

U.S. households likely boosted spending in June, contributing to robust growth during the second quarter, though the current upswing in Covid-19 cases related to the Delta variant and higher inflation are injecting uncertainty into the economic outlook.

Economists estimate that the Commerce Department will report Friday that personal-consumption expenditures-a measure of household spending on goods and services-increased 0.7% last month. That would follow a flat reading in May, when consumers pulled back on purchases of goods but boosted spending on services.

Read More ->

Big Oil Is Vulnerable to Climate Change. Literally.

Alaska seems like one of the last places on the planet that could use extra cooling. That is exactly what it will soon need, though, to prevent one of the world's largest oil pipeline systems from sinking into melting permafrost.

Recent wildfires, floods and droughts across the world are bringing the spotlight once again to the contribution that the oil-and-gas industry has made to climate change. Less talked about is how exposed the industry is itself to unusual and extreme weather. It doesn't quite threaten the industry's existence and could even benefit some producers. Shareholders and consumers could be left with the tab, though.

Read More ->

U.S. Crypto Traders Evade Offshore Exchange Bans

Americans are circumventing bans intended to stop U.S. customers from accessing overseas cryptocurrency exchanges, new research suggests.

A report released Friday found that hundreds of Americans are trading risky crypto derivatives on offshore exchanges such as FTX and Binance. The report sheds light on an open secret in the industry: U.S. crypto enthusiasts can easily bypass measures that seek to block them from offshore exchanges.

Read More ->

U.S. Import Surge Overwhelms Warehouse Space Near Ports

Surging demand for warehousing close to major ports driven by the growth of e-commerce and the flood of container imports hitting U.S. shores is making storage space harder to find and more expensive, adding new stresses to already strained supply chains.

Logistics service providers and real-estate firms say competition for warehouses close to ports such as those in Southern California and New York City is intense, pushing up rents and forcing companies to look to neighboring regions to serve shippers' needs.

Read More ->

Eurozone Economy Showed Stronger-Than-Expected 2Q Rebound

The eurozone economy grew at a faster-than-expected pace in the second quarter, thanks to the easing of coronavirus restrictions across the continent.

Across the 19 countries that use the euro as their currency, gross domestic product grew 2.0% in the second quarter, the European Union's statistics agency Eurostat said Friday in a first estimate for the period. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected a 1.5% expansion.

Read More ->

The U.S. Economy's Prospects Looked Bright, Until the Delta Variant Surged

The U.S. economy grew rapidly in the second quarter and exceeded its pre-pandemic size, but the outlook has suddenly turned cloudier due to the fast-spreading Delta coronavirus variant.

Virus cases are rising again, particularly in parts of the country where vaccination rates remain low. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention this week recommended that vaccinated people resume masking indoors in places with high or substantial transmission of coronavirus, leading some local governments and businesses to reinstate restrictions on activity.

Read More ->

Republicans Top Democrats in Passing State Voting Laws, Often Adding Limits

At least 41 states have made changes to their election laws already this year following the contentious 2020 election.

Republicans this year have sponsored at least 114 new state laws that make changes to elections, including new restrictions on mail ballots following a sharp increase in voting by mail during the pandemic-era election, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis conducted after many state legislatures have wrapped up their sessions.

Read More ->

First Airlift of Imperiled Afghan Interpreters Departs for U.S.

WASHINGTON-The first plane carrying more than 200 Afghan interpreters and their families departed for the U.S., officials said, beginning a major effort to evacuate thousands of Afghans who face retribution by the Taliban for aiding the U.S. military and reconstruction effort over two decades of war.

The families will be resettled in cities across the country with assistance from the U.S. Refugee Admissions Program, the officials said. Many will be sent on to places where friends, relatives or other connections already live.

Read More ->

EU Overtakes U.S. in Covid-19 Vaccines as Delta Variant Spreads

MILAN-The European Union passed the U.S. in Covid-19 vaccinations, with the continent inoculating people at a sustained pace and America struggling to persuade vaccine holdouts to get a shot to slow the spread of the Delta variant.

The EU has given at least one vaccine shot to 259 million people, or 58.3% of the total population of its 27 member countries as of Thursday, according to figures compiled by Our World in Data, an Oxford University project tracking the global vaccine rollout. The U.S. has reached 56.7% of its population, equivalent to 189 million people.

Read More ->

Biden Says Federal Employees Must Get Covid-19 Shots or Wear Masks, Test Regularly

President Biden said federal employees and on-site contractors must get vaccinated against Covid-19 or wear a mask on the job and submit to regular testing, and he called on state and local governments to make $100 payments to newly vaccinated Americans.

Mr. Biden also said in a speech Thursday that he is directing the Defense Department to examine how and when Covid-19 shots could be added to the list of vaccinations required for members of the U.S. military.

Read More ->

Write to sarka.halas@wsj.com

TODAY IN CANADA

Earnings:

Capital Power Corp. (CPX.T) 2Q

Enbridge Inc. (ENB.T) 2Q

George Weston Limited (WN.T) 2Q

Imperial Oil Limited (IMO.T) 2Q

Restaurant Brands Intl Inc (QSR.T) 2Q

SNC-Lavalin Grp Inc. (SNC.T) 2Q

TELUS Corp. (T.T) 2Q

TELUS Intl (CDA) Inc. (TIXT.T) 2Q

Economic Indicators (ET):

0830 May GDP

0830 Jun Industrial product & raw materials price indexes

Stocks to Watch:

Interfor Says BC Production Impacted by Log Supply Constraints

Interfor Corp. on Thursday said it was expecting production delays at its British Columbia Interior sawmills, as wildfires and other factors impact the supply of logs.

The company said it expects to curtail a minimum of 50 million board feet of production across B.C. Interior operations in August, with further downtime possible in September and later.

Interfor also said that over the past 12 months the B.C. Interior operations produced about 725 million board feet of lumber, "representing about 26% of the company's total production."

Andrew Horahan, SVP of Western Operations at Interfor, said,

"The wildfires in the B.C. Interior and the related provincial state of emergency and government-mandated curtailment of all forest harvesting activities are expected to have a significant impact on Interfor's operations in the next several weeks or more."

Other News:

No items published

Market Talk:

No items published

   
 
 

Expected Major Events for Friday

01:00/JPN: Jun Steel Imports & Exports Statistics

04:30/JPN: Jun Preliminary Report on Petroleum Statistics

05:00/JPN: Jun Housing Starts

05:00/JPN: Jun Construction Orders

05:30/FRA: Jun Household consumption expenditure in manufactured goods

05:30/FRA: 2Q GDP - first estimate

06:45/FRA: Jul Provisional CPI

07:00/ITA: Jun Unemployment

08:00/GER: 2Q GDP - 1st release

08:00/ITA: 2Q GDP preliminary estimate

08:30/UK: 2Q Insolvency statistics

09:00/ITA: Jul Cities CPI

09:00/ITA: Jul Provisional CPI

12:30/US: Jun Personal Income & Outlays

12:30/CAN: May GDP

12:30/CAN: Jun Industrial product & raw materials price indexes

12:30/US: 2Q Employment Cost Index

13:45/US: Jul Chicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI

14:00/US: Jul University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - final

19:00/US: Jun Agricultural Prices

All times in GMT. Powered by Kantar Media and Dow Jones.

   
 
 

Expected Earnings for Friday

AbbVie Inc (ABBV) is expected to report $1.94 for 2Q.

AdvanSix (ASIX) is expected to report $0.85 for 2Q.

Archrock Inc (AROC) is expected to report $0.06 for 2Q.

Avient Corp (AVNT) is expected to report for 2Q.

Barnes Group (B) is expected to report $0.42 for 2Q.

Bloomin' Brands (BLMN) is expected to report $0.67 for 2Q.

Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corp (BAH) is expected to report $0.96 for 1Q.

Cabot Oil & Gas Corp (COG) is expected to report $0.26 for 2Q.

Camber Energy Inc (CEI) is expected to report for 4Q.

Canfor Pulp Products (CFPUF,CFX.T) is expected to report for 2Q.

Capital Power Corp (CPX.T) is expected to report $0.51 for 2Q.

Carter's Inc (CRI) is expected to report $0.86 for 2Q.

Cboe Global Markets Inc (CBOE) is expected to report $1.17 for 2Q.

Centerra Gold (CG.T) is expected to report $0.11 for 2Q.

Cerner Corp (CERN) is expected to report $0.60 for 2Q.

Charter Communications Inc (CHTR) is expected to report $4.74 for 2Q.

Chevron Corporation (CVX) is expected to report $1.60 for 2Q.

Church & Dwight Inc (CHD) is expected to report $0.69 for 2Q.

Civeo Corp (CVEO) is expected to report for 2Q.

Colgate-Palmolive Co (CL) is expected to report $0.79 for 2Q.

Community Bankers Trust (ESXB) is expected to report $0.24 for 2Q.

Community West Bancshares (CWBC) is expected to report for 2Q.

Dana Incorporated (DAN) is expected to report $0.49 for 2Q.

Dime Community Bancshares Inc (DCOM) is expected to report for 2Q.

Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas Ltd (EOG.V) is expected to report for Full year.

Enbridge Inc (ENB,ENB.T) is expected to report $0.52 for 2Q.

Eversource Energy (ES) is expected to report $0.79 for 2Q.

Grainger (WW) (GWW) is expected to report $4.54 for 2Q.

Hill-Rom Holdings Inc (HRC) is expected to report $0.89 for 3Q.

Huntsman Corp (HUN) is expected to report $0.81 for 2Q.

Lexicon Pharmaceuticals Inc (LXRX) is expected to report $-0.16 for 2Q.

Mammoth Energy Services Inc (TUSK) is expected to report $-0.23 for 2Q.

Moog Inc - Class A (MOGA,MOGB) is expected to report $1.19 for 3Q.

Obsidian Energy Ltd (OBE,OBE.T) is expected to report for 2Q.

Procter & Gamble (PG) is expected to report $1.08 for 4Q.

Provident Financial Services Inc (PFS) is expected to report $0.46 for 2Q.

Telus Corp (T.T,TU) is expected to report $0.26 for 2Q.

Weston (George) Ltd (WN.T,WNGRF) is expected to report for 2Q.

Weyerhaeuser Co (WY) is expected to report $1.34 for 2Q.

iRadimed Corp (IRMD) is expected to report $0.07 for 2Q.

Powered by Kantar Media and Dow Jones.

   
 
 

ANALYST RATINGS ACTIONS

Allegiant Travel Raised to Buy From Neutral by B of A Securities

Altice USA Cut to Outperform From Strong Buy by Raymond James

Benchmark Elec Raised to Buy From Neutral by Sidoti & Co.

Century Communities Raised to Hold From Sell by Zelman

Cirrus Logic Cut to Neutral From Buy by B of A Securities

Cirrus Logic Raised to Buy From Hold by Craig-Hallum

Cognizant Tech Solutions Raised to Buy From Hold by Societe Generale

CyrusOne Cut to Hold From Buy by Truist Securities

CyrusOne Raised to Outperform From Underperform by Raymond James

Extreme Networks Raised to Buy From Hold by Needham

First Merchants Raised to Buy From Neutral by Janney Montgomery Scott

Investors Bancorp Cut to Neutral From Buy by Janney Montgomery Scott

iRobot Cut to Neutral From Overweight by JP Morgan

Moody's Cut to Neutral From Buy by UBS

Nabors Raised to In-Line From Underperform by Evercore ISI Group

Navient Cut to Neutral From Buy by Citigroup

Raytheon Technologies Raised to Buy From Hold by Argus Research

Teradyne Raised to Positive From Neutral by Susquehanna

Tesla Raised to Buy From Sell by DZ Bank

Zoom Video Communications Raised to Overweight From Sector Weight by Keybanc

This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.

 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 30, 2021 06:13 ET (10:13 GMT)

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