U.S. March Trade Deficit Widened as Coronavirus Disruptions Spread -- Update
By David Harrison
The U.S. trade deficit widened in March as the economic shock
related to the global coronavirus pandemic held down both imports
The deficit rose 11.6% to a seasonally adjusted $44.4 billion in
March from $39.8 billion in February, snapping two months of
declines, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. Imports declined
6.2% to $232.2 billion in March, the lowest figure since October
2016. Exports were down 9.6% to $187.7 billion, lowest since
The March trade numbers are likely to be the beginning of a
sustained fall in global trade, said Brad Setser, a senior fellow
at the Council on Foreign Relations. The coming months will
probably show a continuing decline in U.S. imports and exports, he
"It's safe to project that April will see a much bigger fall and
there's not likely to be a significant recovery in May," Mr. Setser
Several factors have depressed global trade in recent months.
First, the emergence of the new coronavirus in China caused
factories there to shut down, disrupting supply chains world-wide.
Then the virus spread world-wide, prompting many businesses to
close operations, which caused job losses, and many governments to
issue stay-at-home orders, which held down consumer spending. The
lockdowns have likely produced a global recession, further reducing
The International Monetary Fund predicted last month that global
trade would fall 11% this year. The World Trade Organization
projects an even steeper decline of between 13% and 32%, affecting
all global regions but particularly Asia and North America.
A decline of such magnitude would be steeper than during the
global financial crisis of 2008-09, the WTO said. After that
crisis, trade never returned to its previous level, the WTO said.
The same could happen now if the coronavirus shock ends up being
U.S. economic data released so far all suggest that trade flows
will slow considerably in the months ahead.
The Commerce Department's advance estimates of U.S. goods trade
for March, released April 28, showed a 6.7% decline in exports and
2.4% decline in imports. That expanded the U.S. trade deficit in
goods by 7.2% to $64.2 billion. The department's Tuesday release
will provide a fuller picture by including more details as well as
data for trade in services.
The department reported Thursday that consumer spending fell
7.5% in March, the sharpest one-month drop on record. On Friday, a
gauge of manufacturing showed factory activity contracted in April
at the sharpest pace since the last recession.
Overall economic output fell at a seasonally adjusted annual
rate of 4.8% in the first quarter, the department said last
If U.S. exports continue to decline faster than imports, it
would widen the trade deficit, which had been shrinking over the
past year amid a slowing global economy and the Trump
administration's tariffs on China.
The two countries struck a "Phase One" trade agreement in
January, which committed China to increase its purchase of U.S.
goods by $77 billion in 2020 and by $123 billion in 2021.
At the time, analysts said it would be difficult for Chinese
companies to boost imports to that extent. Now, the economic
fallout of the pandemic makes it even less likely the Chinese
private sector will meet those targets.
Meeting the terms of the deal could now rely on the state's
willingness to step in and make the purchases instead of the
private sector, said Mary Lovely, an economist at Syracuse
"There are going to be a lot of businesses in China that are not
going to survive this," she said, referring to the lockdowns
associated with the coronavirus. "They're definitely going to have
Global trade will rebound once the pandemic is contained, Mr.
Setser said, but it might not return to the same level as before.
The shortages of medical supplies that the U.S. and other countries
experienced due to the supply-chain shocks could prompt efforts to
be more self-sufficient, he said. That could reduce some trade
flows in the long run, he said.
Write to David Harrison at email@example.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 05, 2020 09:18 ET (13:18 GMT)
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