Switzerland Loses Grip on World's Lowest Borrowing Costs -- Update
April 07 2020 - 4:34PM
Dow Jones News
By Caitlin Ostroff
Switzerland's bond yields have shot higher than those of Germany
for the first time in years, causing the financial haven to lose
its long-held position as the economy with the world's lowest
borrowing costs.
Yields on Swiss government bonds are still in negative territory
but have risen sharply in recent weeks, as the Swiss National
Bank's response to the coronavirus pandemic has been less
aggressive than efforts by the European Central Bank and the U.S.
Federal Reserve. Investors are paying up for eurozone government
bonds in particular, thanks to bond-buying programs the ECB has
introduced that the SNB hasn't.
Two-year and 10-year Swiss bond yields have risen higher than
those on rival German bonds for the first time in more than a
decade. A 10-year Swiss government bond yields minus 0.27%,
compared with minus 0.97% on March 9. That is now 0.10 percentage
point higher than comparable German bonds, which sport the lowest
yields among major economies. Japanese yields were the world's
lowest for a time in 2018.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note settled Tuesday at
0.735%, up from 0.675% Monday. Yields, which rise when bond prices
fall, have climbed for two sessions in a row, reflecting a shift
among investors toward riskier assets such as stocks.
The increase in yields in Switzerland is attracting demand for
the Swiss franc, causing it to rise to its highest level against
the euro since July 2015. It fell slightly on Tuesday, but remains
near recent highs, with EUR1 buying 1.05 Swiss francs.
To prevent the franc from rising too quickly and causing damage
to the export-dependent Swiss economy, the SNB appears to have
stepped up its weekly interventions in the currency markets. The
past two weeks saw an 18 billion Swiss franc ($18.4 billion)
increase in the SNB's so-called sight deposits, a proxy that
analysts use to measure currency intervention. That was the biggest
jump since January 2015.
At its March meeting, the Swiss National Bank said it was
intervening in the foreign-exchange market after coronavirus fears
had sent the franc up to become "more highly valued."
Complicating Switzerland's position are complaints from the
Trump administration about how it manages its currency. In January,
Washington added Switzerland to its watch list of potential
currency manipulators.
Some think Switzerland isn't acting more aggressively than it
otherwise would.
"Normally you want a weaker exchange rate because it leads to
more exports, but nobody is buying" those exports right now, said
Steven Englander, head of global G-10 FX research and North America
macro strategy at Standard Chartered. "Had we been at these levels
six months ago, they probably would have been much more
concerned."
The SNB has long acted to keep the Swiss franc from becoming too
highly valued. With already deeply negative rates, currency
intervention is its most effective tool to stem the rise as
investors seek safe assets.
It isn't clear if the differences in bond yields will prompt
further action from the SNB. The bank abandoned a currency cap it
maintained against the euro in 2015, allowing the franc to shoot
higher suddenly, whipsawing global markets.
Given the wider mayhem in currency markets, the franc's trading
against the euro has been "remarkably stable" in recent weeks
thanks to the SNB's interventions, said Karsten Linowsky, head of
foreign exchange and rates strategy at Credit Suisse.
It is hard to pin down how aggressively the SNB is being. "My
hunch is they are very active in the market, but it's impossible to
say," said David Oxley, senior Europe economist at Capital
Economics. The SNB's weekly report on sight deposits is usually a
decent intervention proxy but the data are likely obscured by
SNB-led incentives for banks to lend to struggling businesses
during the national coronavirus lockdown.
Write to Caitlin Ostroff at caitlin.ostroff@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 07, 2020 16:19 ET (20:19 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2020 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.