Stocks, Bond Yields Drop on Worries About Coronavirus
February 21 2020 - 6:48PM
Dow Jones News
By Gunjan Banerji
Investors dumped stocks and flocked to traditionally safer
assets like government bonds and gold this week on escalating
worries that the coronavirus epidemic would crimp global
growth.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note touched
its lowest level since September on Friday, settling at 1.470%
after earlier approaching the all-time low of 1.366% from 2016.
Yields on even longer-dated Treasurys fell to a record low. Gold
prices, meanwhile, climbed for the seventh consecutive session to a
seven-year high and extended their gains for the year to 8.2%.
The moves in bonds and gold suggest investors are fearful about
the potential of an economic slowdown. But despite declining this
week, the S&P 500 is sitting within 1.4% of its record and set
a new high as recently as Wednesday.
The mixed signals across markets highlight how tough investors
are finding it to assess the damage that the coronavirus will have
on economic growth as the epidemic disrupts consumer spending,
manufacturing and supply chains around the world.
"One's telling you that things are great in the world. The other
market is telling you that things are not great in the world," said
Giorgio Caputo, a portfolio manager at J O Hambro Capital
Management, referring to the disconnect between stocks and bonds.
"One market is going to be right."
The S&P 500 dropped 35.48 points, or 1.1%, Friday to
3337.75, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 227.57 points,
or 0.8%, to 28992.41. The technology-laden Nasdaq Composite fell
174.37 points, or 1.8%, to 9576.59. All three indexes suffered
declines of at least 1.2% for the week but have posted double-digit
gains over the past year and set repeated highs in 2020.
Even now in the midst of the epidemic, few economists are
calling for an imminent recession, and many investors are wary of
calling it quits on a decadelong bull run in stocks. The Federal
Reserve's three interest-rate cuts last year have also boosted
optimism that the central bank can help buoy the current expansion.
Recession fears came to the forefront last year, only to subside
shortly after, helping the S&P 500 finish its best year since
2013 and highlighting the challenge many investors face in trying
to time the market.
In one sign of the tug-of-war across financial markets, the two
best-performing sectors in the S&P 500 this year have been
technology and utilities. That's unusual because the two groups
often move in opposite directions -- tech stocks tend to rally when
investors feel confident taking on riskier investments, while
utilities tend to advance when investors grow more uneasy about the
economic outlook.
Markets have swung in recent weeks based on the number of new
coronavirus cases that have emerged. Unlike corporate earnings or
cut-and-dry economic data, the social and commercial implications
of the virus can be tough to pinpoint, leaving investors uneasy
about the depth and length of its ramifications.
Fears that the domestic economy would tip into a recession had
ebbed earlier this year as the U.S. and China appeared to reach a
trade truce. Since then, lackluster economic data and the
uncertainty about the impact of the virus have clouded the outlook
for growth, sending investors into assets they think will perform
well in times of uncertainty.
The concurrent gains in stocks and haven investments this year
underscore the jitters that have rattled markets. Typically,
investors ditch haven assets like gold and government bonds as
stocks crest to fresh highs. This year, they have bought risky and
safe assets alike as they have navigated a murky economic
outlook.
"It's absolutely unusual from a longer-term historical
perspective," said Katrina Lamb, head of investment strategy and
research at MV Financial. "There's a concern in terms of wondering
if we may be heading into a stretch of trouble after this very
long, gentle, benign rally."
Cracks in the growth story dented some of investors' confidence
this week. Apple on Monday became the first major U.S. company to
say that it won't meet its revenue projections for the current
quarter because of the coronavirus, warning the epidemic limited
iPhone production and crimped demand for its products in China.
Apple shares dropped 3.7% this week.
Procter & Gamble followed Thursday, saying the virus will
have a material impact on its sales and earnings for the current
quarter because of weaker store traffic in China and disruptions to
its supply chain. Its shares ended the week 0.4% higher.
Lackluster economic data added to those concerns. IHS Markit's
flash reading for an economic indicator measuring manufacturing and
services business activity fell Friday to its lowest level in more
than six years. Additionally, new data showed that sales of
previously owned U.S. homes sputtered in January. Existing-home
sales decreased 1.3% in January from December.
The manufacturing data drove government-bond yields sharply
lower. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note also traded below the
three-month yield this week as investors sought longer-dated
government bonds as a safe haven asset. Gold prices rose 3.9% this
week.
The anxiety in the bond and precious-metals markets could
eventually trickle into stocks. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts
warned in a research note this week that "the risks of a correction
are high," referring to the chance of a pullback of 10% or more
among stock indexes. The analysts also cautioned that equity
investors may be too upbeat about corporations' ability to
withstand the epidemic.
Other investors are more optimistic and say they still expect
bigger gains ahead for stocks, particularly among shares of tech
companies, which have outperformed the broader market for much of
the bull market.
"People are desperately looking for organic growth," said Dev
Kantesaria, founder of Valley Forge Capital Management, who says
he's optimistic about the prospects for software companies.
"High-growth stocks should prosper."
Write to Gunjan Banerji at Gunjan.Banerji@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 21, 2020 18:33 ET (23:33 GMT)
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