SAN FRANCISCO, Nov. 9, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- Analysts and
researchers who calculate and distribute some of the most coveted
housing data in the nation took the stage Friday at the National
Association of Realtors®' Residential Economic Issues
& Trends Forum during the 2019 Realtors® Conference
& Expo in San Francisco,
California.
The five presenters, each staff members of NAR's research team,
discussed historically low mortgage rates, recent home buyers'
behaviors and expectations for 2020's housing market, among other
topics. The group held a brief question and answer session at the
conclusion of their presentation.
Dr. Lawrence Yun, chief economist
and senior vice president of research at NAR, spoke first,
explaining the role the Federal Reserve has played in helping to
bring about significantly low mortgage rates.
"The rates," Yun said "are more tied to communication, not
policy. In prior years, mortgage rates dropped just based on the
Fed's consideration of policy changes, not actual
changes."
Yun also addressed 2019 home sales and gave a forecast of his
expectations for sales in the coming year.
"Interest rates will remain low, as long as we have government
backing of mortgage backed securities. But mortgage rates may
increase as inflation kicks in and economic activity markedly picks
up." Yun added that there has
been underbuilding of houses for years
and buyers are facing higher housing costs as a
result.
Overall, Yun painted a favorable outlook for the future. "We
will not have a recession, and will see a baseline growth rate of
1.5% for 2020."
"New and existing-home sales are expected to increase," he said
while addressing current low unemployment rates. "Every state is
creating jobs. Some states are doing it faster than others, but we
see job creation in every state. That and lower mortgage rates are
helping first-time buyers get into the market."
Dr. Jessica Lautz, vice president
of demographics and behavioral insights at NAR, discussed the
associations' 2019 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, which was
released earlier today. The survey – considered the industry source
of trusted insight into consumer behavior – revealed some unique
shifts in home buyer and seller behavior in 2019, according to
Lautz.
"As birth rates dropped nationwide, fewer buyers have children
under the age of 18 in their homes." This, Lautz explained, can
impact the size of a home and how long a family remains in a
particular home.
Another shift discussed was an increase in dog parks throughout
various neighborhoods. "Just a few years ago, buyers were concerned
about living near the best schools, but now we're seeing a jump in
the desire to accommodate pets with outdoor spaces and proximity to
dog parks and vets."
Brandi Snowden, NAR's director of
member and consumer survey research, spoke about consumer
sentiments toward the housing market and trends in home remodeling.
Her presentation took a look at home buyer perceptions, along with
some disparities between homeowners and renters. Over the last
year, consumers believing whether or not "now is the time to buy"
have been trending downward, according to Snowden. However, she
says that research also indicates that consumers overwhelmingly say
that now is a good time to sell a home. "A kitchen remodel is a
great way to increase the functionality and livability of a home,"
she said. It also helps those looking to sell.
But not all homeowners are looking to put their home on the
market. Based on NAR's home buyers and sellers' data, tenure in
homes is increasing. Snowden added that a number of homeowners have
chosen to stay in their current home and tackle remodeling
projects. Such projects, she says, often offer high returns on
investment, increased happiness, and more comfort in the home.
Gay Cororaton, NAR's director of
housing and commercial research, spoke on the latest results from
the Profile of International Transactions in U.S. Residential Real
Estate 2019 and discussed the 2019 U.S. Vacation Home Counties
Report – two projects she helped author. "Foreign buyer purchases
have declined sharply since 2017 amid weakening global economic
conditions and rising U.S. home prices," she said. Cororaton noted
that Chinese buyers have been most impacted by the weakening of the
yuan, tighter control on dollar outflows, and strained
US-China trade relations. Foreign buyer purchases dropped to
$77.9 billion in 2019 from the
$153 billion level in the 2017.
Regarding the 2019 Vacation Home Counties report, vacation
buyers are a large part of the market in counties in
Maine, Wisconsin and Michigan, said Cororaton.
Data Scientist Julianne Heller
spoke on predictive analytics. She discussed predicting members who
are likely to achieve a certification or designation. Heller says
specific course topics and membership data allow researchers to
match certain courses with the interest of a given member. Even an
individual's everyday personal tastes are helpful, she says. "We
can look at a member's choice in music or whether they like coffee
and learn a great deal from that." The goal, she says, is to tailor
resources to each member's interests, to engage at an individual
level, and to assist in the personalized growth of every member's
career as a Realtor®.
The National Association of Realtors® is America's
largest trade association, representing more than 1.3 million
members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial
real estate industries.
Information about NAR is available at www.nar.realtor.
This and other news releases are posted in the newsroom under
the "About NAR" tab.
View original content to download
multimedia:http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/realtors-annual-expo-low-unemployment-low-interest-rates-but-higher-housing-cost-300955142.html
SOURCE National Association of Realtors