BOSTON, July 17, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- In electric
vehicles, China is not what it
used to be. Electric bike demand collapsed five years ago and
electric bus demand followed two years ago. With electric buses,
the reason was entirely a precipitous drop in government financial
support of demand and production, the peak being accentuated by
pulling forward to grab subsidies while there were available. In
2020 they will be zero but despite this, in 2027 China plans that
full electrification of its bus fleet will be complete. The
IDTechEx report, "Electric Buses 2019-2029," expresses doubts about
that but certainly sees little happening about the one million
largely unauthorized buses doing school runs. It explains where the
action is now taking place.
Raghu Das CEO of IDTechEx explains, "Until recently, it was
uncertain whether the rest of the world would take up the slack of
at least 20,000 pure electric buses yearly because even the RATP
commitment in Paris of 800 is not
of the right magnitude given that the Chinese used to place orders
of up to 2000 at a time. The biggest city in Europe, London, is way below the Paris figure."
Maybe as many as 50 countries are doing something. For example,
in Wellington, New Zealand, 10
electric double-decker buses were rolled out last July, with a goal
of having 32 running by 2021. Operator EBuzz in the Netherlands has ordered 159 electric
buses. Solaris of Poland supplied
over 100 locally then won a tender for 90 electric buses for the
German capital Berlin. Brussels
Airport has ordered 30 but that is dwarfed by Vietnam. A new non-profit bus service coming
to Vietnam next year will
introduce at least 3,000 new electric buses to Vietnamese
roads.
Long term is another matter. Los Angeles County Metropolitan
Transportation Authority (Metro), plans to move its entire bus
fleet to zero-emissions models by 2030. This is the second-largest
bus fleet in North America after
New York with similar long-term
ambitions. Los Angeles has 2,472
buses. That aim is contingent on continued improvements in electric
bus technology – range, reduction in battery charging times and an
increase in battery life cycles – as well as further reductions in
price. In 2017, it placed orders for only 105 pure electric buses.
Expect London, Los Angeles and New
York to be heavy purchasers in 5-10 years.
However, Das points us elsewhere for the big story, "For all
that, it is in India that the
missing 20,000 or more electric buses yearly are likely to be
ordered if electric bus demand is to recover globally. India has announced energetic moves to replace
150,000 diesel buses and it will add more in order to cope with
chronic air pollution. Indeed, India already has more buses than anywhere
else. Currently, there are around 1.6 million registered buses in
India, out of which only 170,000
are operated by public bus operators. Under the FAME (Faster
Adoption and Manufacture of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles) scheme,
60% of the bus price is contributed by the Centre while the rest is
provided by the states."
The State of Kerala's electric vehicle policy envisages
introducing one million EVs by 2022, the Chief Minister Pinarayi
Vijayan says. He has planned a pilot fleet of 3,000 pure electric
buses. Andhra Pradesh has recently announced it is to deploy 350
electric buses in five cities. BYD, number two in electric buses
worldwide and number one in the booming electric car market in
China, says it will sell 40,000
pure electric buses worldwide in the year 2021 and that has to mean
a lot of exports. It has made a good start by becoming the leading
supplier in Europe and the
USA. The Chinese and others are
allowed to sell in India whereas
the figures reveal that the Chinese market for buses is effectively
closed to imports. Those wanting the complete EV picture including
five parameters forecasted for 2019-2030 for 100 categories of
electric vehicle by land, water and air – 6000 data points - should
consult the new IDTechEx report, "Electric Vehicles 2020-2030."
IDTechEx guides your strategic business decisions through its
Research, Consultancy and Event products, helping you profit from
emerging technologies. For more information on IDTechEx Research
and Consultancy contact research@IDTechEx.com or visit
www.IDTechEx.com.
To find out more about Electric Vehicle research available from
IDTechEx visit www.IDTechEx.com/research/EV or to connect with
others on this topic, IDTechEx Events is hosting: Electric Vehicles
- Everything is changing, November 20-21
2019, Santa Clara,
USA www.EVUSA.tech
Media Contact:
Jessica Abineri
Marketing Assistant
press@IDTechEx.com
+44(0)1223 812300
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Further IDTechEx Research on Electric Vehicles
Electric Vehicles: Everything is Changing | November 20-21 2019, Santa Clara, USA | IDTechEx Show Connecting Emerging
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