Stocks, Bond Yields Fall Amid Anxiety Over World Economy
March 22 2019 - 10:34AM
Dow Jones News
By Georgi Kantchev and Akane Otani
Global stocks and bond yields slid Friday as weak manufacturing
data from the eurozone deepened investors' anxiety about the health
of the world economy.
Major stock indexes have managed to rally this year despite a
slowdown in the global economy, in part because central banks have
signaled they will back off plans to normalize monetary policy for
the foreseeable future.
But signs that momentum continues to cool across major economies
challenged investors, raising questions about whether a soft patch
of data could mark the start of a more persistent downturn.
A report Friday showed factory output in the eurozone fell in
March at the fastest pace in six years. Germany's 10-year bond
yield fell into negative territory for the first time since October
2016, while the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note
slid to 2.444%, a fresh low for the year.
Yields, which fall as bond prices rise, typically retreat when
investors are pessimistic about prospects for growth.
In another warning sign, a closely watched yield curve inverted
for the first time since 2007. The spread between 3-month and
10-year U.S. Treasurys fell to -0.02 percentage point.
Investors and Fed officials closely watch the dispersion of
short- and longer-term yields because the three-month yield has
exceeded the 10-year yield ahead of every recession since 1975.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 245 points, or 0.9%, to
25716 after the opening bell. The S&P 500 lost 0.8% and the
Nasdaq Composite shed 1%.
"This confirms the softening data tone the market has been
observing and central banks have been forced to take note of," said
Matt Cairns, strategist at Rabobank.
Now, many say investors are grappling with whether central
banks' wait-and-see approach to monetary policy will be enough to
avert a global economic slowdown.
Earlier this week, Federal Reserve officials indicated they are
unlikely to raise interest rates this year and may be nearly
finished with the series of increases they began more than three
years ago. On Wednesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell suggested the
central bank was likely to leave the policy rate unchanged for many
months.
This change of tactic by the Fed has divided the market. For
some, it is the latest sign that economic growth in the U.S. and
around the world is slowing. For others, a more dovish Fed could
prolong the bull market.
"The market is polarized: Half thinks we are in a bull market
recovery and the other half thinks we are in a bear market rally,"
said Eoin Murray, head of investment at asset manager Hermes.
To be sure, few believe that in the U.S., a recession is
imminent.
Corporate earnings, while cooling, are still expected to post
single-digit percentage growth in 2019, according to FactSet. The
labor market has added jobs for 101 consecutive months, its longest
streak ever, and unemployment remains low.
But the question investors say they are contending with is
whether the slowdown in the eurozone could have a ripple effect,
hitting profits at multinationals in the U.S.
In one sign of pessimism, many traders have begun to bet that
the Fed will go as far as lowering rates soon -- something they
haven't done since the midst of the financial crisis in 2008.
Federal-funds futures, used by traders to place bets on the
course of monetary, showed the market pricing in a 50% chance of
the Fed lowering rates by the end of the year, according to CME
Group. That marked the highest probability yet this year.
Write to Georgi Kantchev at georgi.kantchev@wsj.com and Akane
Otani at akane.otani@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 22, 2019 10:19 ET (14:19 GMT)
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