Oil Rebounds on Chinese Stimulus--Update
January 15 2019 - 5:22PM
Dow Jones News
By Christopher Alessi and Amrith Ramkumar
-- Oil prices ticked up Tuesday, as the two leading benchmarks
regained some of the ground lost over the past two trading
sessions. The rise came after Chinese officials said they would
step up efforts to spur economic growth amid a slowdown, lifting
the demand picture for crude and other beaten-down commodities.
-- Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose $1.65, or 2.8%,
to $60.64 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.
-- West Texas Intermediate futures, the U.S. oil standard,
climbed $1.60, or 3.2%, to $52.11 a barrel on the New York
Mercantile Exchange.
HIGHLIGHTS
Price Rebound: U.S. crude prices have risen 22.5% from 18-month
lows hit Dec. 24 on improved sentiment toward global growth and
commodities demand as well as signs that a global oversupply is
being brought into balance. Oil has been moving in tandem with
stocks, which have also bounced back from their Christmas Eve
lows.
December's nadir had been preceded by a roughly 40% price plunge
during the fourth quarter of last year, from nearly four-year highs
reached in early October. But prices had started 2019 off strong,
closing up for nine consecutive sessions through last Thursday as
the outlook for the global economy improved.
Chinese officials on Tuesday said Beijing intends to improve
credit availability for smaller companies, accelerate
infrastructure investment and cut taxes, as trade discussions
continue.
"Essentially we have gone from pricing a recession back to a
more moderate outlook within the span of just six weeks," according
to analysts at consulting firm JBC Energy. "Recent optimism, among
other aspects, has probably been built on the perceived improvement
in U.S.-Sino relations, as well as China's efforts to stimulate its
economy, " the analysts wrote in a note Tuesday.
Also, the U.S. Energy Information Administration lifted its
estimate for 2019 domestic demand of crude and other liquids in its
latest short-term energy outlook, contributing to optimism about
more stable consumption.
Some analysts are still skeptical oil can move much higher
unless inventories drop significantly, with economic data around
the world recently broadly undershooting expectations.
"Looking ahead, the market mood should continue to see pessimism
fade and optimism grow, which would bring some tailwinds to oil
prices in the near term," said Norbert Ruecker, head of macro and
commodity research at Julius Baer. But, he added: "The oil market
remains amply supplied, and prices are set to trade
rangebound."
U.S. Inventories:
The Energy Information Administration is due to release its
weekly report on U.S. oil inventories on Wednesday. Stockpiles are
expected to have fallen 2 million barrels last week, according to
the average forecast of 13 analysts and traders surveyed by The
Wall Street Journal. The American Petroleum Institute, an industry
group, said late Tuesday that its own data for the week showed a
560,000-barrel decrease in crude supplies, a 6-million-barrel rise
in gasoline stocks and a 3.2-million-barrel increase in distillate
inventories, according to a market participant.
Inventories remain elevated after surging in the fall and
sparking the oil-price rout, though they have edged lower
recently.
INSIGHT
OPEC+: Recovering crude prices at the start of the year have
also been supported by production curbs from the Organization of
the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies outside the
cartel, led by Russia. The producers began implementing a
collective cut of 1.2 million barrels a day at the start of
January.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia -- the de facto head of OPEC and
the world's largest exporter of crude -- has indicated it will
continue to reduce its exports to rein in excess global supply.
OPEC and its partners are expected to assess their production-cut
agreement at the cartel's next official meeting in Vienna on April
17.
AHEAD
-- The EIA releases its weekly report on U.S. oil inventories on
Wednesday.
-- OPEC on Thursday releases its monthly oil-market report,
followed by that of the International Energy Agency on Friday.
Write to Christopher Alessi at christopher.alessi@wsj.com and
Amrith Ramkumar at amrith.ramkumar@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 15, 2019 17:07 ET (22:07 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2019 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.