TIDMNXT
RNS Number : 4033D
Next PLC
28 October 2020
Date: Embargoed until 07.00hrs, Wednesday 28 October 2020
Contacts: Amanda James, Group Finance Director (analyst calls)
NEXT PLC Tel: 0333 777 8888
Alistair Mackinnon-Musson Email: next@rowbellpr.com
Rowbell PR Tel: 020 7717 5239
Photographs: http://www.nextplc.co.uk/media/image-gallery/campaign-images
NEXT PLC
Trading Statement - 28 October 2020
HEADLINES
-- Full price sales in the third quarter were better than we
anticipated and were up +2.8% against last year. Total sales
(including markdown sales) were up +1.4%.
-- Full year profit before tax, based on our new central sales
scenario, is now forecast at GBP3 65m(1) , GBP65m higher than the
central scenario given in September.
-- Year end net debt is forecast to reduce by GBP4 87m to GBP625m.
(1) Profit before tax is quoted on a 52-week basis. The
financial information presented in this document does not reflect
the impact of IFRS 16 Leases.
SALES FOR THE THIRD QUARTER AND YEAR TO DATE
The table below sets out the full price sales performance by
business channel versus last year for the third quarter and year to
date.
Third quarter Year to
Full price sales (VAT exclusive) to 24 October 24 October
========================================== ============== ===========
Online +23.1% +1.0%
Retail - 17.9% - 47.2%
============== ===========
Product full price sales +4.1% - 21.6%
Finance interest income - 13.0% - 7.4%
============== ===========
Total full price sales including interest
income +2.8% - 20.5%
============== ===========
Full Price Sales Analysis by Channel by Week
The chart below shows full price sales by week. Online product
sales are shown in blue, Retail in green and interest income in
grey. The dotted black line shows the total full price sales for
last year.
Click or paste the following link into your web browser to view
the chart titled 'Full Price Sales by Week'. Refer to page 2 for
the relevant chart.
http://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/4033D_1-2020-10-27.pdf
Product Sales
The sales performance by product category remains very similar
to the second quarter, with Home and Childrenswear over-performing
while demand for men's and women's formal and occasion clothing
remains weak. Online sales remain strong, both in the UK and
overseas. In Retail, out of town retail parks continue to perform
better than high streets and shopping centres.
Finance Interest Income
Finance interest income fell by -13% in the third quarter driven
by lower customer balances, which were down -16% on the previous
year. These lower balances were as a result of much lower credit
sales during lockdown in March, April and May (in the first half,
credit sales were down -26%). In the third quarter, we saw a
significant recovery in credit sales, which were up +1% against
last year.
Monthly customer payments (as a percentage of customer balances)
in the third quarter were 14.8%, a material increase on the same
measure last year which was 12.5%. Default rates remain below last
year. So as yet, we have not seen any adverse effects on the
quality of our consumer debt. However, with current levels of
economic uncertainty, we are maintaining the additional GBP20m bad
debt provision that we charged in the first half.
We expect that improving credit sales (which would increase
average balances) will be offset by higher payment rates, resulting
in average balances and interest income remaining down around -16%
in the fourth quarter.
Markdown Sales
Markdown sales were down -12.3% against last year. This
reduction was driven by (1) lower footfall in our Retail stores and
(2) capacity constraints in our Online warehouses, where we have
chosen to prioritise full price sales over our clearance
operation.
SALES, PROFIT AND CASH SCENARIOS
We have revised our guidance scenarios for the fourth quarter,
which are set out below. There remains a very high degree of
uncertainty in our estimates and much will depend on the progress
of the pandemic, along with the Government and consumer reaction to
developments. Our assumptions for each scenario regarding further
lockdowns, Retail footfall, capacity constraints and stock are also
given in the table. We would not want to give the impression that
the assumptions below and their consequences are scientific or
precise; they are intended to give an indication of the sort of
things that might help or hinder sales in the run up to
Christmas.
Upside Central scenario Downside
====================== ===================== ==================== ==========================
Q4 full price
sales 0% - 8% - 20%
===================== ==================== ==========================
Further No further Further local Two weeks of
lockdowns(2) lockdowns lockdowns store closures
in England, Scotland
and Northern
Ireland
===================== ==================== ==========================
Retail Busier stores Some customers Significant reduction
footfall prove no further begin to avoid in peak Christmas
deterrent to shops as they footfall
Retail shopping get busier in
the run up to
Christmas
===================== ==================== ==========================
Online warehouse Warehouses succeed Capacity constraints Significant capacity
capacity constraints in operating and increased constraints and
at maximum capacity self-isolation widespread self-isolation
every day in rates begin to in the run up
the run up to impact sales in to Christmas
Christmas the peak weeks peak
before Christmas
===================== ==================== ==========================
Stock Stock levels now sufficient to achieve all scenarios
=======================================================================
(2) The effect of current lockdowns in Wales and Eire is
included in all scenarios.
Further Store Closures
The biggest single unknown is whether England, Scotland and
Northern Ireland will follow Wales' decision to shut non-essential
retail shops. A two week lockdown in England, Scotland and Northern
Ireland in November would reduce Retail full price sales by around
GBP57m(3) (depending on timing), representing 17% of Retail full
price sales and 6% of the Group's full price sales in the
quarter.
We have found no evidence of the virus being transmitted in our
stores; nor are we aware of any studies that suggest clothing and
homeware retail presents a significant risk of infection.
(3) VAT exclusive sales
Second Half and Full Year Full Price Sales Estimates
For completeness, based on our new scenarios, full price sales
growth in the second half and full year are set out below.
Full price sales versus last
year Upside Central scenario Downside
============================= ====== ================ ========
Fourth quarter 0% - 8% - 20%
Second half +1% - 3% - 9%
Full year - 15% - 17% - 20%
====== ================ ========
Profit Before Tax, Cash and Net Debt
Based on these three scenarios for full price sales, the
expected profit and net debt at the end of the year are set out
below.
Profit before tax, cash and
net debt Upside Central scenario Downside
============================== ======= ================ ========
Profit before tax GBP400m GBP365m GBP290m
Reduction in year end net debt GBP497m GBP487m GBP417m
Year end net debt(4) GBP615m GBP625m GBP695m
======= ================ ========
Based on our central scenario we anticipate profit before tax of
GBP365m and for year end net debt to fall by GBP487m to GBP625m,
which is comfortably within the Company's cash resources of
GBP1.6bn(5) and represents 63% of the value of forecast year end
nextpay receivables of GBP1bn.
Profit before tax is shown on a 52-week basis. This year is a
53-week year and we anticipate that the extra week will add around
GBP12m to profit.
(4) Year end net debt at 53rd week.
5 Bond and bank facilities of GBP1.6bn do not include the
Government's COVID Corporate Financing Facility (CCFF).
Although
our application to the CCFF was accepted, we do not expect to
draw on this facility.
Reconciliation of Revised Profit and Cash Flow numbers
Our new central scenario for profit before tax of GBP365m is
GBP65m higher than the central scenario given in September. Our
cash flow forecast has increased by GBP25m, which is GBP40m less
than our increase in profit forecast. This is mainly as a result of
a GBP30m acceleration in warehouse capital expenditure.
BREXIT PREPARATIONS
In September 2018 and 2019 we issued detailed papers(6)
describing our Brexit preparations and an impact analysis of the UK
leaving the EU without a trade agreement.
We are well prepared and have set up all the administrative,
legal and physical infrastructure that will be needed to operate
effectively at the end of the current transitional arrangements.
This is the case whether the UK and EU reach a trade agreement or
not.
There have been two significant changes since last year:
1) The Temporary Tariff regime will be updated to the UK Global
Tariff, effective from 1 January 2021.
2) The agreement of the Northern Ireland Protocol.
(6)
https://www.nextplc.co.uk//media/Files/N/Next-PLC-V2/documents/2019/Brexit%20paper%20Sept%202019%20Finalv2.pdf
Impact of the UK Global Tariff
We anticipate that the new tariffs will increase NEXT's annual
import duty costs by around GBP13m (based on pre-COVID levels of
sales). We had previously estimated that the Temporary Tariff
Regime would reduce NEXT's import duty costs by around GBP25m.
The GBP13m cost increase would only add +0.3% to prices in
theory, but in reality much of this increase is likely to be offset
through re-sourcing or renegotiation.
Northern Ireland Protocol
The Northern Ireland Protocol was agreed by the UK Government in
October 2019 and aims to avoid the introduction of a hard border on
the island of Ireland in the event that there is a no-deal Brexit.
The Protocol means that UK authorities apply EU customs rules to
goods entering Northern Ireland. This requires a new administrative
process for goods entering Northern Ireland from the rest of the
UK.
There is, as yet, no clear guidance on what administrative
measures will need to be put in place, but we do not anticipate it
will present a material threat to our trade in Northern Ireland or
Eire. However, we would encourage the UK Government to provide
clarification of the process as soon as possible.
Ports
The biggest single risk of a no-deal Brexit is that our ports do
not cope effectively with increased levels of administration. The
highest risk point of entry is Dover, though we have relatively
little stock (less than 2%) entering through this port.
Brexit Summary
A no-deal Brexit is not NEXT's preferred outcome. However in the
event the UK does leave without a deal, we remain confident that
our own systems are well prepared for no-deal. So, as long as our
ports continue to operate effectively, we do not believe that a
no-deal Brexit poses a material threat to the ongoing operations or
profitability of the Group.
CHRISTMAS TRADING STATEMENT
We intend to issue an update on sales to Saturday 26 December
2020 on Tuesday 5 January 2021.
Forward Looking Statements
Certain statements in this Trading Update are forward looking
statements. These statements may contain the words "anticipate",
"believe", "intend", "aim", "expects", "will", or words of similar
meaning. By their nature, forward looking statements involve risks,
uncertainties or assumptions that could cause actual results or
events to differ materially from those expressed or implied by
those statements. As such, undue reliance should not be placed on
forward looking statements. Except as required by applicable law or
regulation, NEXT plc disclaims any obligation or undertaking to
update these statements to reflect events occurring after the date
these statements were published.
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END
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