U.S. Economic & Credit
Outlook
The U.S. economy produced
mixed results in the first half of 2022, with strong nominal growth
eroded by the highest inflation in decades. Gross domestic product
adjusted for inflation (“real GDP”) fell 1.6% in the first quarter
as a wider trade deficit and a slower pace of inventory
accumulation more than offset a 2.0% rise in domestic final sales.
While the advance estimate of second quarter GDP will not be
available until late July, economists in the latest Federal Reserve
Bank of Philadelphia’s Livingston
Survey forecast
real GDP growth of 0.5% in the first half of 2022, which would
imply a 2.6% gain in Q2. Before adjusting for inflation, nominal
GDP was much higher: 6.6% in Q1 and an estimated 8.1% in Q2. For
the second half of 2022, these economists expect real GDP to expand
by 2.1%.
Employment has grown rapidly
so far in 2022, pushing the unemployment rate down to 3.6% in May
from 3.9% in December 2021. Demand for workers remains strong, with
1.9 job openings for each unemployed person as of April. Although
hiring is likely to slow from this very rapid pace, we expect it to
remain solid in the second half. Higher hourly pay and rising
employment drove solid gains in wage and salary income so far in
2022, although overall personal income failed to keep pace with
inflation as transfer payments slowed sharply. Real personal
consumption expenditures (PCE) slowed to 1.8% in Q1 from 2.5% a
quarter earlier, as consumers dipped into savings and increased
borrowing. Recent increases in gasoline and food prices probably
forced households to devote a larger share of income to those
items, and real consumer spending growth is likely to be similarly
slow in Q2.
Home sales fell as soaring
prices and mortgage rates cooled demand, while high inflation
turned strong nominal residential investment into only a 0.4% real
gain in Q1; it probably turned negative in Q2. Industrial output
rose 7.0% in Q1, with even faster gains in April and May. Rapidly
rising output pushed capacity utilization up to 79% in May, its
highest level since 2018. Real business investment rose 10.0% in
Q1, and economists expect a gain of 7.3% in Q2. While order growth
has remained sturdy, business confidence has slipped in response to
tighter monetary policy (discussed below). We expect slower growth
in both industrial output and business investment in the second
half.
Strong demand and, until quite
recently, accommodative monetary policy drove inflation sharply
higher in 2022. Compared to the same month a year earlier, the
consumer price index (CPI) reached a high of 8.6% in May, and the
PCE deflator peaked at 6.6% in March. Inflation broadened beyond
food and energy prices, and the core CPI (excluding food and
energy) rose to a peak of 6.5% YoY in March, while the core PCE
deflator reached a high of 5.3% YoY in February. Although those
levels probably mark the peak in core inflation for this cycle, we
do not expect to see major progress on inflation until the fourth
quarter.
High inflation prompted a
sharp turn in monetary policy. The Fed hiked the fed funds rate by
150 basis points to a target range of 1.50%-1.75%, and, unlike the
Fed’s mid-June projections, markets as of June 30 were pricing in a
fed funds rate of 3.4% by year-end, a peak at 3.5% in mid-2023, and
a decline to 2.9% at year-end 2023. The Fed also ended quantitative
easing in March and, in June, began to reduce its securities
holdings by up to $30 billion Treasuries and $17.5 billion of
mortgage-backed securities per month. The Fed plans to double its
monthly portfolio runoff starting in September. These actions
combined to drive up benchmark interest rates and the U.S. dollar,
widen credit spreads, and push down common equity prices — sharply
tightening financial conditions.
To bring inflation down, the
Fed must tighten financial conditions and slow money growth to
levels that reduce aggregate demand and bring it into
(noninflationary) balance with supply. Because monetary policy acts
with a lag and has limited impact on the economy’s supply side, it
will be very difficult, although not impossible, for the Fed to
reduce inflation from current levels back toward its 2% long-term
target without overshooting. We expect the economy to continue its
expansion this year, although recession risk will increase in
2023.
Despite a challenging economic
backdrop, fundamental credit quality remains healthy. The ratio of
debt to GDP has continued to decline across most sectors of the
economy. Household and financial business balance sheets look
especially strong. Business bankruptcy filings, household and
business debt service, and bank loan delinquencies and charge-offs
all remain historically low. Financial companies, which are the
largest issuers in the preferred market, should